Justin Herbert ended as the QB9 in points per game as a rookie in 2020, lighting up opposing defenses to the tune of 4,336 passing yards and 31 TDs—terrific numbers in his record-breaking rookie season. As such, fantasy players are now expecting Herbert to improve on his game enough to be a top 7 QB this fantasy football season (according to Fantasypros.com, Herbert’s current Average Draft Position (ADP) is QB7).
This makes sense on the surface—Herbert is entering his sophomore season, has an improved offensive line, and a strong supporting cast—but it seems that everyone is forgetting an important, underwhelming part to Herbert’s fantasy appeal: his running game, or lack thereof.
Sporting News
Justin Herbert averaged just 15.6 rushing yards per game in 2020, a number that will likely need to be improved upon in order to reach a return on value at his current ADP.
Looking back through the last five years, there are only ten quarterbacks who finished as a top 7 QB in points per game with a per game rushing average of 15.6 rushing yards or less. These players were:
2020 - Aaron Rodgers
2019 - Matt Stafford, Jameis Winston
2018 - Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees
2017 - Tom Brady
2016 - Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins
Of the 35 quarterbacks to have a per game average of QB7 or better in the last five seasons, only 10 have reached that level of play with a per game rushing average at or below Herbert’s rookie season. This rushing stat alone says Herbert has about a 29% chance to finish top 7 in 2021 without rushing improvement.
But what about Herbert’s ceiling? Obviously if you draft him seventh off the board you are hoping for a finish above QB7. So what about top 5 finishes?
Eight QBs have been able to finish top 5 without surpassing the 15.6 yard per game rushing threshold. This says Herbert has about a 23% chance to be a top 5 QB option.
What about a top 3 finish?
Four QBs have been able to finish top 3 in points per game without reaching Herbert’s rushing threshold. This says Herbert has about an 11% chance to finish as a top 3 QB.
What if we want the best!?
Well, there have been zero number one overall QB finishes among QBs who have failed to rush for more than 15.6 yards per game.
These numbers are bleak considering his cost as the seventh QB off the board in fantasy drafts.
The real question here is, can Herbert be as productive of a passer as the previous ten QBs who found success despite using their legs at a lower rate than most high end fantasy finishers?
Well let's see how they compare:
When considering only the eleven QBs above, Herbert ended last in True Throw Value, eighth in passing yards per game, ninth in touchdown percentage, and last in yards per attempt.
For Herbert to meet the average output of the ten QBs he hopes to match, he must improve in TTV by nine spots, increase his passing yards per game by 5%, increase his TD% by 16%, and increase his Y/A by 12%. These are not small tasks.
Now Herbert may very well enter his sophomore season guns blazing, blowing his rookie year passing numbers out of the water, but will that even be enough to justify his cost? And how likely is that to actually happen?
Herbert was already fourth in the league in passing attempts and completions as a rookie, which leaves little room for improvement in terms of total passing volume straight from the jump. He also ranked 20th or worse among all QBs in Yards Per Attempt, Average Depth of Target, and Deep Completion Percentage according to the Fantasy Football by BRoto App.
Herbert also threw a rookie record 31 TDs in 2020, finishing top 10 across the league, despite playing in 15 games. Only 23 QBs have eclipsed 30 passing TDs in the last three seasons combined, so it is no easy task, and regression may be coming for Herbert.
The last time a rookie broke the TD record was Baker Mayfield when he threw 27 TDs in 2018. He threw 22 TDs the following year.
Similarly to Mayfield, Herbert is also heading into his sophomore season with a new coaching staff and a new offense to learn.
We have seen coaching/scheme turnover stymie young QBs in the past and while there is excitement around the newly signed Offensive Coordinator, Joe Lombardi, who just spent the last five season as the QB’s coach for the high powered Saints offense, he has just one year under his belt as an Offensive Coordinator throughout his coaching career, and that was back in the 2014/15 season for the Detroit Lions.
That was a successful season for the Lions, as they won 11 games and made it to the playoffs, but they were in the bottom half of the league in terms of total offensive yards, coming in at 19th.
It is difficult to project the type of impact Lombardi will have on the offense just based off of one year as an offensive coordinator and five years as the QBs coach for sure fire hall of fame QB, Drew Brees. It will likely have to be a wait and see approach for this Chargers offense.
As we see above, Herbert is already starting from behind in terms of both rushing and passing to match his QB7 ADP, and he will have to learn a new offense heading into his sophomore campaign.
We know he does not have the legs of a Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, so how much can we logically expect him to improve in the passing game? Where is the profitability drafting a QB 7th off the board if the numbers say he is much more likely to end outside the top 7?
There are only two ways I see Herbert justifying his cost this fantasy season - He either increases his rushing output, and there is simply no real reason to project a significant increase in rushing for the young QB, or he continues his ascension up the QB ranks, puts up MVP level numbers, and is widely considered a top five NFL QB by year’s end.
While I am a big fan of Herbert and believe an MVP level season is attainable, I am also a numbers guy, and the numbers are not on Herbert’s side, no matter how you look at it.
As we say at BRoto, don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.
I will be fading Herbert in redraft leagues this year, and I think you should too.
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By Michael Petropoulos (@BRotoFFMike)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.