We are entering uncharted territory heading into the 2021 season. For the first time, Fantasy Football managers will be looking at a 17-game schedule and will have to figure out how to properly navigate it.
Fantasy Football managers aren’t the only ones that are going to have to figure out a way to stretch their talent though, as head coaches and offensive coordinators are going to need to adjust the way they use their talent to fit a 17-game + playoffs schedule.
Likely, this will mean the trend away from workhorse backs will be exacerbated even further, with teams looking to lighten the load on their RBs by spreading out the carries.
Last season, three different pairs of teammates finished as RB2s or better, a number that could be even higher this season. These teammates have wide gaps in ADP, but a closer look at them reveals they are closer than we think.
JK Dobbins (ADP: RB13) vs. Gus Edwards (ADP: RB56)
Pop quiz: which running back had the most rushing attempts for the Ravens last year? The answer is Gus Edwards. In fact, Edwards has led all Ravens RBs in carries in two of the last three seasons despite never being listed higher than third on the depth chart to open a season.
Now, Edwards comes into the year with a fat new contract and only JK Dobbins to compete with for carries. With Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram getting most of the credit in the running game over the past few seasons because of their big names, Edwards has quietly produced at an extremely efficient rate in the shadows.
In his three years in the NFL, he has averaged 5.2 YPC and 782 yards a season, despite only averaging 9.2 attempts per game. Last year, he went for a career high in yards and TDs, ending the season with 852 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs. Not only has he been efficient, but he has done it in big spots. Over 1/3rd of Edwards' attempts have gone for first downs in his career and his nine big plays were 7th in the NFL last season.
Considering all of this, the question becomes: Why is JK Dobbins, who is projected to lead the backfield, not only going earlier than Edwards, but a whopping 43 running backs ahead of Edwards? The obvious answer is the passing game. Although Edwards has been great on the ground, he’s been non-existent through the air. Last year, he ran just 78 routes (74th in the NFL) and had a target share of just 3.6%, resulting in a measly nine catches for 129 yards all season.
The assumption is that Dobbins, who caught 18 passes last season and had 71 catches over 3 seasons in college, will be the focus of the passing game for the running backs. A fair assumption to make. But in order for Dobbins to have that significant a gap in ADP, you must also assume that there will be a significant amount of passing work for the RBs in Baltimore. That is simply not the case.
Last season, the Ravens targeted the RB on just 16% of throws (5th lowest in the NFL) out of a league-low 406 pass attempts. The result was just 33 total completed passes to running backs in the entire season, the lowest figure in the league. To put that into perspective, the team with the lowest percentage of passes to the running back, the Buffalo Bills at 13%, completed more passes to RB Devin Singletary (38) alone.
The reason for the lack of RB work in the passing game is simple, while most QBs check down to the best option when the play breaks down, Jackson, the most dynamic runner at the QB position since Michael Vick, is the best option when the play breaks down. Why would Jackson dump the ball off to Dobbins or Edwards, or whoever may be in the backfield when he is the only 1000 yard rusher on the team?
Although Dobbins will most certainly see the pass game work in Baltimore, the amount of total work he would have to see to make it fantasy relevant just does not exist. Add on the high draft and salary cap capital they just spent on WRs Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins, and a small pie to share gets even smaller.
With all of this considered, it is fair to say that Dobbins and Edwards will receive similar workloads, even if Edwards doesn’t catch a single pass, especially if he continues to produce at the rate he has in his young career. If you draft Edwards at RB56 instead of Dobbins at RB13, you can get similar production 43 running backs later.
D’Andre Swift (ADP: RB14) vs. Jamaal Williams (RB46)
Everyone’s favorite breakout candidate for the 2021 season seems to be D’Andre Swift, and for good reason. After fumbling a possible game-winning touchdown in his first ever game, Swift bounced back and had an impressive rookie season, totaling 878 all purpose yards and 10 total TDs en route to an RB18 finish in PPR PPG. Even more impressive, he finished the season 11th in Points Per Opportunity excluding TDs (PPOxTD) proving that his 10 TDs weren’t his only reason for fantasy success.
In the off-season, the Lions completely revamped their entire roster and staff and all of a sudden last year’s 2nd round pick for the Lions is the 2nd-most tenured Detroit Lion of all skill position players. This includes a shift in QB from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff, a complete overhaul of the WR room, and a new Offensive Coordinator, Anthony Lynn.
Although the changes made may be hard for Detroit Lions fans to get excited about, many fantasy football managers are excited about the possibility of Swift catching tons of passes in an offense known for RB passes, with no real WR threat to compete with. The hype is warranted.
In Lynn’s four seasons as the Chargers’ Head Coach, running backs had averaged 148 targets per season, a figure that could be topped in his first year with the Lions. In the last three seasons, the Chargers have finished top five in the NFL in targets to the RB, following a first overall finish in 2019 with a 2nd place finish last year despite a QB switch, the departure of Melvin Gordon and a hobbled Austin Ekeler. This bodes very well for the fantasy outlook for Swift, but he’s not the only RB that could enjoy the blessings of this offense.
Jamaal Williams, brought in on a 2-year $7.5 million deal from the Packers, has been an extremely productive back in his young career. Despite never seeing more than 178 touches in a season, Williams has averaged 737 all purpose yards and has scored 18 total touchdowns, eight of which has come via the pass. In fact, Williams has never caught less than 25 passes, or had less than 210 receiving yards a season in his years as a part-time back in Green Bay. Now in Detroit, a bigger role could be on the horizon for Williams.
"Jamaal is what I’d call a classic 'A' back," Lynn told reporters this off-season. "I like to break the backs down into A and B. My 'A' backs are normally my bigger backs. They can run between the tackles, block probably a little better than a 'B' back, they can also run the perimeter. I can leave those guys in there for all three downs."
During Lynn’s time in San Diego, his ‘A’ back, Melvin Gordon, averaged 68 targets a season, despite playing in the same backfield as one of the best pass-catching RBs of our era, Austin Ekeler, who averaged 65 targets a year, including a 100 target season in 2019.
With Swift playing the role of Ekeler and Williams playing the role of Gordon, there is a scenario where both of them finish as RB2s or better this season, especially with so many vacated targets potentially going to the running back. I love me some Swift in 2021, but if you can’t get him early, you might have a chance to get some solid production from his teammate over 30 RBs later.
Josh Jacobs (RB18) vs. Kenyan Drake (RB30)
sportsnaut.com
It’s perplexing how many fantasy analysts are willing to apologize for Josh Jacobs’ terrible season in 2020. Yes, he finished as the RB8 overall, but as we have learned many times in the past, the looks of an overall finish can be very deceiving.
Jacobs led the league in Red Zone opportunities and was second only to Derrick Henry in opportunity shares in the Red Zone, turning that into 12 TDs (16.2%). Since 2015, only Le’Veon Bell (2017) had a lower TD% among the leaders in RZ touches. Even though he was inefficient with his Red Zone opportunities, and failed to catch a single pass in the Red Zone, he still put up a decent total of 12 TDs, which buoyed his season.
Removing the TDs from the equation really reveals how bad he was. Jacobs’ .448 points per opportunity excluding TDs (PPOxTD) was good for an awful 66th in the NFL, in the bottom 10 of the 76 qualifiers. Meanwhile, he produced -1.6 fantasy points over expected (FPTS oX), ranking him even further down the list at 114th in the NFL. In addition, his 3.6 yards per carry was 82nd in the NFL and his four big plays (20 yards or more) was tied for 36th with his teammate Devontae Booker, who broke off the same amount of big plays in about 1/3rd of the opportunities. In fact, in the 296 times Josh Jacobs touched the ball last season, he recorded exactly ZERO plays of over 30 yards.
And how did the Raiders respond to this inefficient season? Not with a vote of confidence, instead, they went out and signed another RB, Kenyan Drake, making him the 16th highest paid RB in the league and committing the same amount of guaranteed money ($11 million) as Jacobs, and it is no coincidence.
As part of a split backfield in Arizona, Drake was 5th in the NFL in Red Zone opportunities, converting nine TDs, all of which came from within the five yard line, an area Jacobs particularly struggled in last season in the clutch.
With the score separated by one score or fewer, Jacobs was just four for eighteen on TD conversions from inside the five and was stuffed for no gain or negative yards eight times in that span. Not exactly the type of performance that inspires a coaching staff to have more confidence in you.
Drake is also the far superior receiving back to Jacobs, topping Jacobs’ career high in receiving yards (238) in three of his four full seasons including a season with 73 targets, 53 catches, 477 yards and five receiving TDs.
With all this said, it is clear that the Raiders plan to split the backfield this season, and with the better goal line and pass catching back going significantly later, the better value on the draft board will most likely come from Drake.
David Johnson (RB33) Vs. Phillip Lindsay (RB51)
Is there any running back more disrespected than Phillip Lindsay? In his first 31 games in the league, before his injury-riddled 2020 season, Lindsay averaged 4.8 YPC while scoring 16 TDs. Only 10 other running backs in league history have ever put up numbers like that in their first 31 games, and they are all certified superstars:
Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb.
Despite this shocking HOF-level production, the Broncos signed Melvin Gordon to take his place in Denver and sent him out to pasture after an injury-plagued 2020 season. Luckily, the Texans were in the market for forgotten running backs this off-season and Lindsay was one of several they signed.
The Texans are an absolute mess, so rostering any RB could be a recipe for disaster, but if you are going to roster one, Lindsay could be a better value. In order for this to be the case, Lindsay would have to beat out Johnson for the starting job in the preseason, which would mean two things:
1. Lindsay has bounced back from his injury.
2. Johnson is washed.
Number one is yet to be seen, but number 2 is most certainly a possibility.
Going into his year 30 season, Johnson missed time for the second straight season in 2020, and although his cumulative numbers didn’t look that bad because of his passing game work, he was clearly a step or two slower than the superstar that took fantasy by storm five seasons ago.
With a new coaching staff in town, the assumption that David Johnson is guaranteed the starter role is one that could come back to bite fantasy managers. As the only running back under 30 on the Texans roster, and an oft-injured group of RBs in front of him, Lindsay has a chance to start in Houston and you can have him for free.
Michael Carter (RB36) Vs. Ty Johnson (RB66)
With the Jets starting RB job wide open, many people automatically assume that the explosive rookie, Michael Carter, who averaged over eight yards per carry last season for UNC, has the inside track on the fantasy-viable role in this backfield.
Being drafted at RB36, Carter seems like the perfect long shot to take in the 8th or 9th round of drafts that could end up being a big piece of your fantasy pie, especially if you are a subscriber to the growing-in-popularity “Zero RB” strategy. But his fourth round rookie draft capital tells us that banking on Carter to pop might be an even longer shot than you think.
Although there is something to be said about the Jets willingness to take him in the third round (they traded their 3rd round picks away), fantasy relevance has been hard to come by for RBs drafted at the top of Day 2 of the NFL draft, especially in the last five seasons.
According to rotoheat.com, of the 23 RBs drafted in the fourth round in the last five seasons, only Tarik Cohen, has finished the year as an RB1 in PPR formats (RB11 in 2018), and only teammates Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines have ever put up an RB2 season. None of them put up an RB2 or better performance in their rookie seasons.
To make matters worse, standing in his way are four other RBs, Tevin Coleman (who has experience in the 49ers zone-run system), La’Mical Perine (a fourth-round pick last season), Josh Adams (seven career games as an RB3 or better) and Ty Johnson. The latter, Johnson, could have the inside track to the starting RB position in 2020 based on scheme fit.
With the hiring of Mike LaFleur as OC, he and the Jets openly and readily talk about the zone running scheme, popularized by Kyle Shanahan, that he plans on taking from San Francisco and bringing to New York.
In the zone running system, offensive lineman do not take a man like traditional run blocking calls. Instead, each lineman flows to one side or the other, blocking whatever man is in front of them. This pattern of blocking usually results in a hole somewhere, with the RBs job being to identify where that hole is and attack it. In order for this style of attack to work, a running back must have three things: decisiveness, cutting ability and vision.
In his short career with the Jets and Lions, the 2019 UDFA out of Maryland has shown an ability to thrive in these types of runs, averaging 4.7 YPC in his 117 career rushes. No stat exemplifies this like yards before contact.
In 2020, Johnson finished 3rd in percentage of yards before contact with 52%, slightly beating out fellow UDFA Raheem Mostert, who is the poster boy for success in the zone run scheme. This stat shows an ability to identify and hit holes as they are opened up by an offensive line and, although Johnson doesn’t have the top-end speed Mostert does, he possesses similar vision that has made Mostert indispensable in the 49ers offense when healthy.
But don’t take my word for it, in practice footage posted by the Jets, new head coach Robert Saleh is seen talking to Johnson about his role in the offense and saying flat out that he has the perfect skill set to thrive in the scheme he and LaFleur are bringing in.
So while there is a scenario where Carter is a workhorse for the Jets, the guy going 30 RB picks later could be the real “zero-RB” steal in the Jets backfield in 2021.
Honorable mentions:
Cam Akers (RB12) Vs. Darrell Henderson (RB54)
Aaron Jones (RB9) Vs. A.J. Dillon (RB40)
Jonathan Taylor( RB6) Vs. Nyheim Hines (RB41)
Nick Chubb (RB9) Vs. Kareem Hunt (RB23)
Raheem Mostert (RB29) Vs. Trey Sermon (RB38)
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By Tim Petropoulos (@BRotoFFTim)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.