Every season, fantasy football players struggle to figure out what to expect from rookie quarterbacks. This year is no different.
The 2021 NFL draft saw five quarterbacks taken in the first round: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones.
Based on history, at least two of these QB’s will, for lack of a better word, end up as busts. According to football.pitcherlist.com, 45% of quarterbacks taken in the first round have a career longer than five years. Essentially, half of the QBs taken will be out of the league within five years.
Additionally, in 2020, Ryen Russillo of the Ringer went through 20 years of QBs selected in the first round draft, and here’s what he found:
From 1998-2017, 55 QBs were taken in the first round. Russillo calculated that out of those 55 QBs, 28 were busts, 22 had good careers, and five had a career somewhere in between bust and good. You can learn more about what these metrics mean here.
I mention this all to say that deciphering a franchise QB from a bust may be the hardest thing to do in all of sports.
So, with that all in mind, let’s take a look at each rookie QB’s situation and try to figure out what to expect from each of them in their first season in the league and beyond.
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
At 6’6”, 220lbs, Trevor Lawrence is a monster of a man. He has every trait a franchise would want in a quarterback: Size, strength, mobility, athleticism, exceptional football IQ, a proven leader, etc.
Throughout his time at Clemson and during the months leading up to the draft, Lawrence was seen as a “can’t miss” prospect who was often compared to the likes of Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning.
Even though those are some lofty names to throw out there, even for someone like Lawrence, the comparisons make a lot of sense.
All three of these guys are big QBs with strong arms, incredible pocket and locker room presence, and incredible football IQ’s.
Manning was sneaky mobile, in a similar way to how Tom Brady is. Luck was more of an athlete, possessing a greater ability to extend plays with his legs than Manning ever did. Then there’s Lawrence, who is an even better athlete than Luck ever was.
Since the team’s formation in 1995, the Jags have never had a legitimate franchise QB. If it weren’t for the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions, the Jags would be the worst franchise in the NFL.
From Blake Bortles to Blaine Gabbert to Chad Henne to Nick Foles, it's just been a dumpster fire of QB mediocrity in Jacksonville. However, for the first time in franchise history, they have real hope in Lawrence.
Lawrence is different from any QB the Jags have ever had. He has the talent to uplift the Jags to heights they have never reached before. But, Lawrence can’t do it all by himself. He needs some help. Surprisingly, Lawrence will have some nice weapons to work with in his rookie year.
Marvin Jones Jr., DJ Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., Phillip Dorsett II and Laquan Treadwell fill out the receiving corps that Lawrence will have at his disposal in his rookie season. That’s a pretty solid receiving room with the talent to attack the field at all three levels
In the backfield, Lawrence will be reunited with fellow Clemson teammate Travis Etienne.
Etienne will join James Robinson, who rushed for over 1000 yards in his rookie year last season, in the backfield.
Lawrence is set up nicely to have a solid rookie season in the NFL. He’s got the tools and talent, and one would hope he’s surrounded by enough tools and talent as well.
All in all, I see Lawrence finishing as a top 15-fantasy QB, with a chance to break Herbert’s records from last season.
It should be noted that I’m a Jags fan and have been dreaming of having a franchise QB for my entire life (so take with that knowledge whatever you desire).
Verdict: All In
Zach Wilson - New York Jets
Selected just one pick after Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson was the second QB off the board during this year’s NFL Draft to the New York Jets.
I am not sold on Zach Wilson being a good quarterback in the NFL, and the main reason for that is the situation in which he has landed: starting QB for the New York Jets.
The Jets might have the worst group of skill position players in the entire league. Here are the most notable names from the Jets skill position players: Tevin Coleman, La’Mical Perine, Keelan Cole, Jamison Crowder, Corey Davis, and Chris Herndon. Any of those names jump out to you? Do any of them get you excited? For me, it is a resounding no.
To make matters worse, according to Pro Football Focus, the Jets offensive line finished the 2020 season ranked 29th of 32 teams. They allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 28% of drop backs which was the worst rate in the league. The Jets also averaged just 1.1 yards per carry before contact per rushing attempt, which was good for 30th in the league.
The Jets did use their second first round pick to take Alijah Vera-Tucker, an offensive tackle out of USC, and add Morgan Moses, but the Jets also made a bunch of additions on the offensive line last season (Van Roten, McGovern, Fant) and look where that got them.
Those two reasons are enough for me to be completely off of Zach Wilson as a fantasy-viable rookie QB. I expect him to struggle mightily throughout the year, get hit a lot, and make a lot of mistakes. To put it simply: I’m not a believer in Wilson one bit.
NY Post
Verdict: Out
Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance and the San Francisco 49ers have one of the most compelling relationships heading into the 2021 season.
After the draft, in an interview with the Athletic, Head coach Mike Shanahan had this to say on his team's QB situation:
“I definitely see it as Jimmy is the starter, but if Trey is ready to compete, I have no problem with it. I don’t sit there and say ‘Hey no, we’re not playing a rookie quarterback, we have to rest him the first year.’ I don’t really make decisions like that until I actually have an opinion on it, and that’ll take to how I see him in camp, and if he comes playing at a high level and we think he gives us the best chance to win, we wouldn't hesitate to do that. But like I said before this happened, it would be really hard for any rookie quarterback. Jimmy is a very good player, he's not just coming in trying to beat out a guy who hasn't done it before. When Jimmy has played at a very high level, I thought Jimmy had as good of an OTAs as he's had since he's been here, he seems very on point from a mental and physical standpoint and I know Trey is really gonna have to be on it to push him.”
First off, I think we should all take a moment to appreciate Shanahan's honesty in his statement. He essentially says, as of right now, Jimmy G is our starter but that could all change come training camp.
Well, I’m here to tell you that I’d bet my life savings on Lance ending the season as the Niners starting quarterback.
In the modern NFL, if a team selects a QB in the first round, especially within the top five, the rookie will take the starting job over the veteran at some point during the season. I expect that trend to continue in San Fran.
The 49ers current situation actually reminds me a lot of when the Seattle Seahawks selected Russell Wilson back in 2012.
Early in the 2012 offseason, the Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to a three year, $19 million deal to become their new starting QB. They then went on to draft Russell Wilson in the third round of the Draft but nobody really thought much of it. All signs heading into training camp were pointing towards Flynn being the starter and Wilson serving as his backup.
Then, training camp started and Wilson completely outplayed Flynn and won the starting job. That season, Wilson went on to make the Pro-Bowl and led the Seahawks to the playoffs. He then led them to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, earning one ring in the process, and has now become one of the best players in the game.
I compare the Niners current situation to that of the 2012 Seahawks not just because I feel the two teams were/are in very similar spots but also because I believe Lance and Wilson to be similar style QBs.
Watching clips of Lance at North Dakota State, you can that he extends plays with his feet and that he is able to find the open man with pin-point accuracy—very reminiscent of Wilson. Moreover, when everything breaks down, Lance is able to remain calm and make the correct read. Lance’s ability to hit the home-run play is also reminiscent of Wilson.
For all of these reasons, I could see Shanahan using Lance in a similar way in which Seattle uses Wilson. The biggest difference between the two is that Lance is much bigger, at 6’4”, 225lbs, than Wilson, which leaves more room for rushing potential.
On the flip side, there are several concerns for Lance. The fact that he played at North Dakota State, a FCS school, has some people worried that he’s not ready to make the jump to the NFL. Also, the fact that he only played in one game in all of 2020, and has only started one full season, with a total of 19 starts under his belt, makes his track record not quite as clear for a top-pick QB.
In the NFL, however, I believe that the team the player is on is the biggest factor for whether or not that player will succeed or fail in the NFL.
Landing in San Francisco, Lance has everything at his disposal: One of the best offensive minds in football in head coach Mike Shanahan, an incredible plethora of weapons in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Raheem Mostert, and Trey Sermon, one of the best offensive lines in football, and an elite defense.
After an injury-riddled 2020 season, expect the Niners to have a bounce back year and don’t be surprised if it’s Trey Lance leading them back to the playoffs.
Out of all the rookie QB’s, Lance is in the best situation to succeed. You know Shanahan will figure out the perfect scheme for an offense centered around Lance and he has the tools to take advantage.
I’m all in on Lance being a franchise QB, and I wouldn't be surprised if years from now, people are looking back on this draft and concluding that Lance was the best QB taken.
Verdict: All In
Justin Fields - Chicago Bears
Justin Fields is the most perplexing QB prospect in this class to me.
Like Lawrence, he has all the tools to play in the NFL for a long, long time. He’s 6’3”, 228 lbs, ran a 4.4 40 yard dash, and has won almost every award and accolade a college QB can earn.
My gut, however, says that he ends up being a bust for what some may consider a silly reason. That reason is simply that no Ohio State quarterback has ever been a legitimate franchise quarterback. Dwayne Haskins, Caradale Jones, Terrelle Pryor, Braxton Miller, and JT Barrett all ended up as busts despite having incredible collegiate careers.
I know it sounds like a questionable concern on the surface but I do think there is some merit to it.
Ohio State, even more so than Alabama, is so much more talented than every opponent they play in the Big 10. When a quarterback has a better running back, wide receivers, and offensive line than the other team's defense, not just by a little, but by a lot, it makes life so much easier.
And why did several teams pass on Fields when starting QB is the hottest commodity in the NFL? He did drop to eleventh overall as the fourth QB off the board, after all.
I’m just not sold on Fields being an elite QB in this league. I definitely believe that he’ll end up usurping Andy Dalton as the starting QB for the Bears early on in the season but I’m not sure how much better he will be.
With that being said, I do see a world in which the Bears start the season 0-3, Matt Nagy puts Fields in as the starter, and Fields just dominates in week four against the Detroit Lions and takes the league by storm.
I guess what I am trying to say about Fields is that I just really don’t know. He is the rookie QB I have the least confidence in projecting, and really do not know what we should expect.
Verdict: Undecided
Mac Jones - New England Patriots
I believe Mac Jones will have the worst career of all of the first round rookie QBs.
The main reason people are buying Jones and a Patriots bounce-back season is because of Bill Belichick, and I get it.
It is certainly logical to think that the greatest coach in NFL history will conjure up a better season from his squad then last year’s injury-riddled, covid destructive season. No team was hurt more last year than the Pats.
I do believe that the Patriots will be a better team this year, and could even get back to the playoffs, but I do not believe the success will be derived from Mac Jones.
For starters, I’m of the belief that this is Cam Newton's team. This is likely his last chance to prove he can be a starting NFL Caliber QB, and he will have to show out in order to keep his job. Between injuries and covid issues last year for Cam, there are reasons to believe he can be better and now he is heading into the season with no excuses.
I’m also of the belief that Bill Belichick is the kind of old school coach to sit a rookie quarterback to learn from the starter, learn the system, and learn the difference between the college game and the pros.
The only way I see Mac Jones be the starting QB for the Pats in 2021 is if Cam gets hurt, the Pats play poorly early on, or if he just dominates in training camp.
It also cannot be understated that while at Alabama, Jones had one of the greatest receiving rooms in all of college football history. Since 2019, Alabama has had four receivers taken in the first round of the NFL draft: DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs III, and Jerry Jeudy. Oh and not to mention, Jones had some incredible offensive lineman and running backs like NaJee Harris and Josh Jacobs to work with.
Every time Jones played in college, his team was more talented by a landslide. That just won’t be the case in New England.
The Pats also have one of the worst groupings of skill position players in all of the NFL. They have decent backs in Damien Harris and James White, decent Tight Ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, but a pedestrian receiving corps with the best wide-out being either Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, or Kendrick Bourne.
Belichick may be able to turn Jones into a franchise QB but, as of now, I am just not buying it.
Verdict: Out
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By Kyle McKee (@KaleMcKee)