When comparing two very similar players it is important to break down the different variables that comprise success in redraft leagues. For me, the analysis is split between opportunity (with an emphasis on passing work), efficiency, and overall talent.
This time, I’m comparing J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift.
Opportunity is where the debate begins.
Rushing Opportunity:
It is a well-known fact that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson likes to run, but exactly how much should we expect Lamar’s rushing prowess to affect Dobbins’ value?
During the Lamar era, the Ravens have led the league in total rush attempts, with 172 and 159 of those rushes going to Jackson in 2019 and 2020 respectively. This volume for Lamar looks bad for Dobbins on the surface, but let’s dive deeper.
If we take away 120 and 100 rushes from the Ravens’ total, bringing Lamar to the QB average of 50-60 rushes per year, Baltimore STILL has more yearly rush plays than Detroit in both years. Lamar “stealing” rushes from his RB room is a fallacy due to the sheer volume at which the Ravens have run the ball.
Advantage: Dobbins
Now let’s direct our focus to receiving opportunity, as targets tend to be more valuable for fantasy purposes (around 1.7 times more for running backs compared to a rush attempt).
Receiving Opportunity:
I have found that the concept of “pass-catching RB” is flawed and we should look at “RB-throwing QBs” or coaching schemes instead. On a year-to-year basis, coaching and QB play have a higher consistency or “stickiness” regarding targets to the RB position than the RBs themselves (I go more in-depth in this article), so the recent changes in Detroit certainly make this interesting.
It doesn’t come as a surprise that the Jackson-led Ravens are amongst the worst in the league when it comes to RB targets per game (30th in 2019 and 32nd in 2020). What may be more unexpected is that Jared Goff finds himself in the same ballpark (31st in 2019 and 30th in 2020).
The Lions’ outlook gets opaque when we consider that the new OC, Anthony Lynn, finished second and first in those same seasons.
Another aspect to consider now is: How sticky are these targets year-to-year after a team change?
It turns out that QBs switching teams have a stronger hold on target totals than coaches (~0.1 R^2 vs ~0.06). While this relationship is not as strong, it can help guide our projections going forward.
So, while I don’t project Swift will get Austin Ekeler-esque target numbers, he does gain an edge in this category over the established low-target Ravens offense.
Advantage: Swift
Efficiency:
When looking at Points per Opportunity Excluding TDs (PPOxTD) both runners cracked the top-10, with Swift at 9 and Dobbins right behind at 10. The fact that Dobbins is just one spot below, however, is extremely impressive. Mainly because Swift had a higher percentage of his opportunities come from ever-valuable targets.
This is where Dobbins’ rushing ability comes in. As a pure rusher, he’s among the top of the league. In my own expected rushing yards model (xRY) he ranks 3rd in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) just behind Aaron Jones and his own QB, Lamar Jackson, while Swift comes in at 17th.
To put it in perspective, Dobbins is ranked one spot above Nick Chubb in RYOE even though Dobbins’ average expected yards per rush is higher. Very impressive.
No Advantage
Final Verdict:
On an even playing field, I would take Dobbins. Their profiles are so similar, however, in the end, it all depends on the opportunity cost (as it may come down to who scores more TDs between these two). Ask yourself, can I get one for significantly less than the other? If so, that’s your answer.
For the 2021 season specifically, Dobbins will play in the same system he did last year and we know what we can expect from him: a solid rushing floor with capped receiving upside.
On the other hand, Swift will be playing with a new coaching regime and a new QB, a combination we know can give Swift very valuable receiving upside but can also bring lots of uncertainty. This, combined with the addition of Jamaal Williams, historically a very solid backup that OC Lynn seems to like very much, makes Swifts’ range of outcomes very volatile.
Keep this in mind when drafting this season. Does your team need a consistent solid floor guy? Or would raw, volatile potential benefit your lineup?
Slight Advantage: Dobbins
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By Santiago Casanova (@BRotoFFCasanova)
*Thank you to PlayerProfiler for the idea for this article*
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.