After requesting a trade way back in March, Julio Jones finally got what he asked for: on June 6th, 2021, the Atlanta Falcons agreed to send Jones and a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Tennessee Titans in exchange for a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round pick.
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This deal propels the Titans into serious Super Bowl contention, as Julio Jones is, when healthy, still one of the best receivers in the league despite going into his age 32 season. The Titans now add that to an already quality offense that features the True Value King, quarterback Ryan Tannehill, running back Derrick Henry, and stud wide receiver AJ Brown.
Tennessee finished third in total yards per game, 396.4, and fourth in points per game, 30.7, during the 2020 season. Reading that may surprise fans because, over the past few seasons, the Titans haven’t been discussed as one of the league's top offenses. The reason for this is simple: The Titans aren’t a high-flying, pass-first attacking offense. What they are, however, is an extremely efficient offense led by a giant named Derrick Henry.
Tennessee’s game plan starts and ends with Henry. Last season, the Titans ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards per game and total rushing attempts, behind only the Baltimore Ravens. They did this because, although it may seem counterintuitive, the Titans passing offense also excelled when Henry was receiving a lot of touches. When Henry wasn't having monster games over the past two seasons, the Titans Struggled. Last season, the Titans averaged 228.3 passing yards per game, good for 23rd in the league. Even worse, Mike Vrabel’s squad totaled 485 passing attempts for the entire 2020 season, third lowest in the NFL.
In a league that’s moving more and more towards passing on every down, it seems weird for a run-heavy team to have the ability to score with the best of them. That’s just how special Henry is. His presence on the field forces defenses to stack the box. They must be aware of “King Henry” at all times. This, in turn, opens up the field for receivers, which allows Ryan Tannehill the ability to make easier throws. Tannehill had a lot of success making these “easier throws” to AJ Brown, Corey Davis, and co. last season—now Imagine what he can do with Julio Jones and AJ Brown on the outside. Jones and Brown probably won’t see much double coverage this season because of their complimentary cream-of-the-crop skillsets. If a team doubles Jones with two of their top corners, or has a safety shadow Jones’ side of the field, Tannehill will just look Brown’s way (and good luck to the CB who has to guard AJ Brown one-on-one). If the defense doubles Brown, Tannehill will just look Jones’ way. Lastly, if the defense decides to focus their full attention on stopping those two studs, Tannehill could just sit tight and give the rock to Derrick Henry. This three-headed attack is the type that feeds each other opportunities, rather than cannibalizing each other’s chances.
I could see Brown racking up over 1,400 receiving yards, 10+ touchdowns, and close to 100 receptions.
As for Julio, I believe he’ll have a bounce back year, reach the 1,000 yard mark, and even come close to scoring 10 touchdowns with around 60-70 receptions. That's all predicated on the Titans looking to pass the ball more, which they absolutely should do.
As for Derrick Henry, well, hot take incoming: Don’t expect another 2,000 yard season.
No one in NFL history has ever had back-to-back 2,000 yard rushing seasons. Other than Henry, there have been seven other running backs to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season: Eric Dickerson, Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Chris Johnson, and O.J. Simpson. Here’s how their next seasons went:
OJ Simpson. Went from rushing for 2,003 yards in 1973 to 1,125 yards in 1974.
Eric Dickerson went from rushing for 2,105 yards in 1984 to 1,234 yards in 1985.
Terrell Davis went from rushing for 2,008 yards in 1998 to only playing in four games the following season due to injury.
Barry Sanders went from rushing for 2,053 yards in 1997 to 1,491 yards in 1998.
Jamal Lewis went from rushing for 2,066 yards in 2003 to 1,006 yards in 2004.
Chris Johnson went from rushing for 2,006 yards in 2009 to 1,364 yards in 2010.
Adrian Peterson went from rushing for 2,097 yards in 2012, to 1,266 yards in 2013.
Another consideration when looking at all these numbers is the drop off of the number of carries these backs received the year following their 2,000 campaign. All seven of these backs received at least 40 less carries the season after their breakout year.
With that in mind, expect Henry to have a down year. He’ll probably still rush for over 1,000 yards but, just based on history, he will handle the ball less and it is hard to say that he’ll get over 1,500 yards. The 27-year-old back has carried the pigskin 681 times over the past two seasons. 681(and that’s not even including the playoffs)!
So, when trying to decide who to draft in the first round of your fantasy draft, stay away from Henry—role with Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, or maybe even Ezekiel Elliot or Jonathan Taylor instead. As for those guys named Tannehill, Brown, and Jones, they are decent value picks with upside in drafts this year.
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By Kyle McKee (@KaleMcKee)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.