Fantasy Football Overall Finish/PPG Report

Overall finish at a position can be very misleading and, in many cases, can provide a disingenuous argument for or against a player. Points per game is a far more reliable stat, as it compares each player on a per game basis rather than a full season. This is especially relevant for players who missed time due to injuries/suspensions. Will Fuller, for example, finished 2020 as the WR30, but was the WR9 in points per game—which is much more telling of how effective he was as a fantasy asset while on the field. 

In this article, I have highlighted 30 players with large discrepancies between their overall finish and their points per game in order to give you a better viewpoint on each player, with a small takeaway for each.

1. Austin Ekeler (LAC RB)

Overall Finish - RB28 

PPG Finish - RB10

ADP - RB10

Takeaway: Injuries are to blame here. Ekeler gets a second year Herbert, an improved offensive line, and a new coach for the 2021 season. PPG certainly tells a more honest story and Ekeler is someone I will certainly be targeting at RB10.

2. Julio Jones (TEN WR)

Overall Finish - WR46 

PPG Finish - WR13 

ADP - WR12 

Takeaway: Obviously Julio Jones is far better than WR46. He now heads to Tennessee to play with the True Value King Ryan Tannehill, opposite of young stud WR, AJ Brown. Injuries are concerning, but he makes a ton of sense at ADP.

3. Chris Godwin (TB WR)

Overall Finish - WR38 

PPG Finish - WR22 

ADP - WR15 

Takeaway: Don’t sleep on Chris Godwin, folks! In what was widely considered a down year due to injuries and high expectations from his masterful 2019 season, Godwin still produced as a WR2 when healthy. His ADP has dropped a decent amount after being a top-10 WR in the 2020 preseason but he is now healthy and will get to work in year two with the GOAT at QB. There are some volume concerns with all the weapons in Tampa Bay but there is no reason to believe the Bucs won’t have a top-5 overall offense in 2021.

4. Myles Gaskin (MIA RB)

Overall Finish - RB29

PPG Finish - RB11 

ADP - RB25

Takeaway: Gaskin had quite the 2020. From a nobody during draft time to a locked-and-loaded top-15 RB week in and week out. Chatter throughout the offseason made it seem as though Gaskin was heading for a backup role in 2021, however, Miami showed trust in their guy and are letting it ride with him. His ADP outside the top-20 RBs makes little sense just from a volume perspective.

5. Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR)

Overall Finish - WR31 

PPG Finish - WR17 

ADP - WR28 

Takeaway: Brandon Aiyuk really took off when forced into a big role last season. He had 5 WR1 performances, tied for sixth in the league, despite playing in only 12 games. Super impressive for a rookie. Yes, there are volume concerns with a healthy Kittle, Deebo and maybe even Jalen Hurd heading into 2021, but you don’t have that sort of instant success by accident. No reason to believe Aiyuk won’t be WR28 or better.

6. Kareem Hunt (CLE RB)

Overall Finish - RB8  

PPG Finish - RB20 

ADP - RB24

Takeaway: This is a notable difference. There is a HUGE contrast between RB1 and low end RB2. Hunt was a healthy, consistent contributor, but the RB1 finish is far from telling the whole story. On a per game basis, Hunt was a solid weekly contributor, but lacked upside for the most part. Even when Chubb was hurt, Hunt was not the top end RB1 we expected him to be. He is a very safe pick for 2021, but that is about it. He is the second best running back on his own team, after all.

7. Chase Claypool (PIT WR)

Overall Finish - WR25  

PPG Finish - WR35 

ADP - WR33  

Takeaway: Claypool had a tremendous rookie season, but I am weary heading into 2021. Outside of blow up games, Claypool was difficult to trust on a weekly basis, and his per game average of low-end WR3 does not inspire as much confidence as his overall finish does. Big Ben, who is clearly on the decline, is another year older, Juju resigned, and the Steelers drafted Najee Harris. There is certainly a chance Claypool builds off of his impressive rookie season but I am not so sure I am willing to make that bet at this point.

8. Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR)

Overall Finish - WR54  

PPG Finish - WR79 

ADP - WR34 

Takeaway: A lot of Jerry Jeudy’s rookie season struggles had to do with the atrocious QB play. Unfortunately, not much has changed in that regard. It will still be the inconsistent Drew Lock or the glorified backup Teddy Bridgewater at QB for Denver. Courtland Sutton is also making his return and he is certain to command significant targets. Add in the Broncos trading up for Javonte Williams and I really struggle to see Jeudy as a consistent every week starter this fantasy season.

9. Will Fuller (MIA WR)

Overall Finish - WR30 

PPG Finish - WR9 

ADP - WR38 

Takeaway: Will Fuller was a stud last season prior to his PED suspension. New situation in Miami with Tua at the helm instead of Deshaun Watson likely hampers his upside a bit but don’t forget he was a locked and loaded WR1 in 2020. ADP of WR38 seems silly.

10. Robby Anderson (CAR WR)

Overall Finish - WR15 

PPG Finish - WR23 

ADP - WR41 

Takeaway: Robby Anderson was a surprise last season, but the overall finish is not quite as telling as it seems. While he was a consistent producer, Robby had only 2 WR1 finishes in 2020, behind both of his fellow starting WRs DJ Moore (4) and Curtis Samuel (4). He also had 8 games as a WR3 or worse. He has history with Sam Darnold, but trusting Anderson as anything more than a WR3 feels like a mistake. Luckily, his ADP isn’t making you trust him as anything more than that.

11. Melvin Gordon (DEN WR)

Overall Finish - RB18  

PPG Finish - RB26 

ADP - RB26 

Takeaway: Similar to Hunt, MelGo was fairly healthy and compiled enough stats to finish as the RB18 on the season, despite being outside the top 24 in points per game. He seems to be a popular pick these days at ADP now that he has settled outside the top-20, but with Javonte Williams entering the fold, MelGo could be a real headache all season long. He was 26th in points per game last season with less backfield competition, after all.

12. Chase Edmonds (ARI RB)

Overall Finish - RB23       

PPG Finish - RB34 

ADP - RB31 

Takeaway: This one will likely disappoint all fantasy players, as the constant hype around Edmonds likely made it seem as if he was a weekly top-24 RB. Edmonds is a popular breakout candidate this season with the departure of Kenyan Drake, who was fourth in the NFL in red zone opportunities, however, the Cardinals have brought in James Conner, who is certain to have a role when healthy. Edmonds also struggled as the main guy last season in games that Drake missed. His ADP has not settled into too bad of a spot though, so taking a shot on him at RB31 does make sense.

13. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (BAL WR)

Overall Finish - WR37       

PPG Finish - WR52 

ADP - WR36 

Takeaway: Hollywood Brown had another disappointing season in 2020, though he did come on near the end of the season. The Ravens drafted Rashod Bateman in the first round which can be looked at in two different ways: 1. Opens up the field for Hollywood 2. Takes targets away from Hollywood. Lamar is extremely efficient but the Ravens simply don’t throw enough for me to target Hollywood.

14. Laviska Shenault (JAX WR)

Overall Finish - WR49       

PPG Finish - WR61

ADP - WR42 

Takeaway: Shenault is seemingly everybody’s favorite second-year wide receiver in fantasy drafts this season. Mark me down as skeptical. The Jags have a rookie QB learning a new system, DJ Chark, Marvin Jones, Travis Etienne, and James Robinson. How many targets are we expecting for Shenault? Mix in Brian Schottenheimer having a significant role as passing game coordinator and I can’t buy into this inflating Shenault hype. I am not going to avoid him entirely, but certainly won’t be reaching for him.

15. Corey Davis (NYJ WR)

Overall Finish - WR32   

PPG Finish - WR26 

ADP - WR46 

Takeaway: Corey Davis finally had that breakout type season folks have been waiting for since he was drafted fourth overall. Playing with the True Throw Value King, Ryan Tannehill, certainly helped with the PPG, but it is still notable that he played better than it seems on the surface. If he develops a rapport with Zach Wilson and the Jets revamped offense is even league average, Davis could be a very solid contributor this fantasy season. Buy the Jets while their costs are laughably low.

17. Baker Mayfield (CLE QB)

Overall Finish - QB18    

PPG Finish - QB27 

ADP - QB19 

Takeaway: This one is unfortunate. QB18 tells a much different story than QB27. Mayfield operates a low stakes offense that revolves around the running game, leaving little room for upside, so the low PPG finish really shouldn’t be all that surprising. Not going to be going after him much at ADP.

18. Tony Pollard (DAL RB)

Overall Finish - RB40    

PPG Finish - RB55 

ADP - RB43 

Takeaway: Tony Pollard is a handcuff who will have stand alone value from time to time but you will never know when that will be. His ADP makes little sense for as long as Zeke is healthy. I understand the mouthwatering potential in case of a Zeke injury, but spending a 7th/8th round pick on a hope and a dream is not something I am interested in.

19. J.D. McKissic (WSH RB)

Overall Finish - RB15    

PPG Finish - RB28 

ADP - RB47 

Takeaway: Last season was a tremendous success for McKissic no matter which way you look at it, but his 28th overall finish in points per game is a concerning drop compared to his 15th overall scoring finish. His PPG makes him a flex piece at best, and with Antonio Gibson’s expected increased workload, McKissic may just be a one year wonder. He may be worth the gamble at ADP though, as the market seems to be very hesitant as well.

20. Nyheim Hines (IND RB)

Overall Finish - RB16    

PPG Finish - RB29

ADP - RB45

Takeaway: Hines was similar to McKissic in terms of production and role, and now has a very similar ADP too. With Jonathan Taylor expected to operate as the lead dog, Marlon Mack’s return, and the loss of Phillip Rivers, Hines is going to be difficult to trust, and a repeat of his 2020 season seems unlikely. Like McKissic though, he may be worth the gamble at ADP, as the market seems to be very hesitant.

21. Daniel Jones (NYG QB)

Overall Finish - QB24      

PPG Finish - QB33 

ADP - QB26 

Takeaway: Yuck. The Giants better hope the arrival of Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney allows Jones to settle down and take a big year-3 jump, because his sophomore season in 2020 was despicable. Jones had more games with an interception (8) than he did games throwing a touchdown (7). This also does not include his six lost fumbles. He has a lot of work to do, and is not someone I will be targeting often.

22. Derek Carr (OAK QB)

Overall Finish - QB14  

PPG Finish - QB21 

ADP - QB27 

Takeaway: From high-end QB2 to basically unplayable. Every year certain fantasy analysts will hype up the most mediocre QB in the game. The matter of fact is, you can do much better than Derek Carr, even in Super Flex leagues. His ADP outside the top 24 makes a ton of sense.

23. Michael Gallup (DAL WR)

Overall Finish - WR36       

PPG Finish - WR50 

ADP - WR53 

Takeaway: With Dak returning, Michael Gallup is certain to end above WR50 in points per game. If something were to happen to Coop or Lamb, he would be an automatic top-30 WR. No reason not to draft him while he hovers outside the top 50.

24. Darnell Mooney (CHI WR)

Overall Finish - WR50   

PPG Finish - WR75 

ADP - WR56 

Takeaway: The Mooney line! Darnell Mooney had some nice games as a rookie, but while there is significant hype around his name, let’s not forget that his 2020 season wasn’t all great. Rookie QB Justin Fields may be an upgrade but its hard to tell how much of an impact he will make when he hasn’t taken an NFL snap yet and Dalton has already been named the starter. I don’t really see anything more than a similar type of boom or bust season for Mooney. 

25. Cole Beasley (BUF WR)

Overall Finish - WR21     

PPG Finish - WR30 

ADP - WR61 

Takeaway: Cole Beasley had the best year of his career in 2020, which is not surprising when you consider Josh Allen’s ascendance to the top of the QB totem pole. Beasley wasn’t quite as good as his overall finish, but is still a value in fantasy drafts each and every year. His WR61 cost is a joke.

26. Christian Kirk (ARI WR)

Overall Finish - WR45     

PPG Finish - WR56 

ADP - WR64 

Takeaway: So Kirk was even worse than it seems? Shocking. If you follow BRoto, you know we will not be actively targeting Christian Kirk.

27. Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR)

Overall Finish - WR35 

PPG Finish - WR20 

ADP - WR65 

Takeaway: Jamison Crowder is under drafted every year despite basically being Jarvis Landry lite. A WR2 finish in points per game with the offense the Jets were rolling out in 2020 is nothing to scoff at. Even with the addition of Elijah Moore, Crowder will have a role. His ADP is a bit of a joke right now.

28. Gabriel Davis (BUF WR)

Overall Finish - WR61   

PPG Finish - WR90

ADP - WR67 

Takeaway: Gabriel Davis had a nice rookie season and now has some hype around him heading into his sophomore season after the departure of deep threat John Brown. This may open the field up for Davis a bit, but let’s not forget that the Bills retained their two best receivers in Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, and brought in veteran Emmanuel Sanders on a one year deal. The Bills also have athletic tight end Dawson Knox heading into his third year on the team, ending the 2020 season with his best stretch as a Bill, seeing 4 or more targets in five straight games, while catching two touchdowns in that span. It is hard for me to predict Gabriel Davis to be anything more than a bye week fill in.

29. Russell Gage (ATL WR)

Overall Finish - WR39      

PPG Finish - WR58 

ADP - WR68 

Takeaway: This one shocked me a bit as I expected Gage to be closer to his overall finish in terms of points per game. This may not matter now though with Julio out the door. Just don’t expect some sort of big breakout from Gage. He is already being drafted well ahead of WR68 since the Julio trade.

30. Darius Slayton (NYG WR)

Overall Finish - WR48      

PPG Finish - WR73 

ADP - WR83 

Takeaway: Remember, it was just a year ago when Slayton was a popular pick in the first ten rounds as a top 40 WR or so. How things change. With Kenny Golladay in NY now, Slayton is unlikely to be anything more than a waiver wire fodder.

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By Michael Petropoulos (@BRotoFFMike)