The debates for who will top the boards in fantasy are meticulously combed over and argued with a fevered demeanor, and for good reason.
The high capital you are inevitably going to spend to get these mainstays on your dynasty roster will shape your team for years. The volatility of sustained success in those early rounds is chaotic at best. The factors that can change a roster drastically are often unpredictable. Andrew Luck anyone?
Having said all of that, I truly feel that there is a wide receiver flying under the radar that could be a WR1 for years to come; yet, routinely, is being drafted in the back end of third rounds, anywhere between WR 9-12: CeeDee Lamb.
Sports Illustrated
Lamb's player comps are off the charts, both in talent and sustained success.
The BRoto Fantasy Football App currently has Lamb's closest comparison as fellow teammate Amari Cooper, and his second closest comp as Keenan Allen. The similarities between these three are in their size, college production and year-one production. My favorite part of these comps is the sustained success—both Cooper and Allen have had phenomenal success from a fantasy perspective, at all phases of their career.
Furthermore, Lamb surpassed both of his peers’ rookie seasons in catch percentage and the then 21-year-old commanded 111 targets in an offense that featured Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott. Most impressive though is that, as a rookie, CeeDee managed to gain 935 receiving yards and five touchdowns while catching passes from four different QBs: Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert.
CeeDee is years ahead of his maturity in terms of route running and play perception, and will continue to be a focal point of the Dallas Cowboys offense moving forward, an offense that is going to throw a lot. In addition, the offense should be in come-from-behind mode for most of the year, as the Cowboys secondary has more holes in it than your grandma’s crocheted blanket. Ranked bottom five in points allowed in 2020 at 29.6, America's Team is primed for a fantasy-friendly offense that can support multiple stars, and Ceedee is arguably the most talented of all.
In terms of a Dynasty investment, there isn’t another skill player on that Cowboys offense I would rather roster than Lamb.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was on pace for a history-altering season that could have seen him throw for over 6,000 yards before his injury in 2020. During the five-game span when Dak was healthy, Lamb was his go-to guy with 40 targets, many of which came when the Cowboys were losing. In fact, 47 of Lamb's total receptions on the year came from behind. He is safer than a Volvo and twice as reliable.
Lamb is the future of the Cowboys’ offense alongside a newly re-signed Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper is signed through 2025 but has a potential 2022 opt-out. Elliott has the same potential opt-out a year later in 2023. Jerry Jones and ‘The Boys’ invested major first-round draft capital into CeeDee Lamb knowing exactly that. One of these men, Cooper or Elliott, will be the odd one out.
Lamb dominates the short and intermediate game with his willingness to be physical and his ability to disguise his routes. He is also a nightmare for any single coverage assignment, whether he’s running short or deep routes. Per Matt Harmon's reception perception, Lamb boasts a ridiculous 72.5 percent success rate against man coverage and an even more absurd 80 percent success against the press. He was dominant in success rate on deep go routes at 76.5 percent and operates an uber efficient short game with a combined 89.4 percent success rate on all routes run under 10 yards. He is much too skilled a route runner to be covered by linebackers in the short game. He is too fast for safeties in the long game. He is too big for Defensive backs in the intermediate game. Plus, with Amari Cooper as the number one option, for this year anyway, Lamb will be able to feast on lesser DBs.
The NFC East is also a paradise for WR production. Dallas is set to play six games of their 17 game schedule against the putrid basement of NFC defenses: The New York Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Football Team. Ok, maybe Washington gets a pass, but their front seven is better than their secondary. New York and Philly get no passes.
The NFC East allowed 1,577 points to opposing offenses in 2020, the most of any division in the NFC.
The East is a dumpster fire for elite quarterback play, but Prescott is the exception. He is not just the best signal caller in the division; he is one of the top quarterbacks in the entire league.
At his current average draft position per market value, CeeDee Lamb is the number one WR you should be targeting in your dynasty leagues. His ceiling is infinite and his floor is still elite. The potential is there. The script is written.
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By Matthew Ward (@PsychWard16)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.