Welcome to the BRoto Weekly DFS article! Here we are going to identify some of our favorite plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Hope you all had a good week last week, I however barely broke even. Let’s try to have another #printfest for week 9!
Games to Target:
1. BUF @ JAX O/U- 49.5
Implied totals: BUF: 31.75, JAX:17.25
2. HOU @ MIA O/U- 51
Implied totals: MIA: 26.25, HOU: 19.75
3. GB @ KC O/U- 50
Implied totals: KC: 27.25, GB: 26.75
Top Plays GPP:
QB: These plays will overlap with cash and and seem obvious, but they are in smash spots and are fairly priced: Lamar Jackson ($8300 FD), Josh Allen ($9000 FD).
QB: Tua Tagovailoa ($7300 FD) -
Dolphin Nation
HOU defense has been getting WORKED lately. They have given up 24+ points in each of their previous seven games, a beautiful trend for opposing QBs. Tua did struggle last week in a tough matchup against Buffalo which also makes this a nice recency bias play. He has been letting the ball rip through the air (39+ passing attempts in previous three games) and even running a little bit (3+ rushes in previous three games). Sign me up.
RB: Zack Moss (guess who’s back, back again) ($6100 FD): Zack Moss had an uneventful week last week, but we just saw the Geno Smith led Seahawks manhandle the inept JAX defense.
Sure, his total carries fell to just eight but he had seven targets last week, a tremendous number for an RB. I am sticking with Moss as a nice leverage play on what should be a popular Bills slate.
WR: Justin Jefferson (Recency bias play) ($7500 FD): Jefferson is a great recency bias play. After only getting 4 targets last week it is likely many players will be off Jefferson. That would be a mistake. With a 49.5 O/U matchup against the Ravens, I expect Jefferson to be heavily involved. The Ravens defense has been hit or miss this season but have been beatable, including an 8/201/1 line to Ja’Marr Chase last time they played.
TE: Tyler Conklin ($5200 FD). Guess who’s the 3rd best matchup for TE’s to exploit per BRoto’s points allowed over average? The Baltimore Ravens! The Ravens are giving up 50.3% points over average and Conklin’s target share on the year is 13.4%. Get this purple people eater in your GPP lineup.
TE: Albert O ($4500 FD): With Noah Fant out, Albert O can eat. He barely trailed Fant in target share last week (15.4%-11.5%) and is an athletic, strong pass catching option. Love me some Albert O this week.
TE: Kyle Pitts (recency bias play) ($6600 FD): Pitts is expensive, but with Andrews and Kelce on the slate, he makes for a nice low-rostership play. Especially after that big stinker last week.
D/ST: CIN D/ST ($3800 FD): Just when you thought Cincy was the cream of the crop, they got capsized by the Jets. I’m going to be honest, this play is risky, but it has more to do with the opposing offense than the Cincy defense. CLE currently ranks 10th in total yards/gm, 26th in passing yards/gm and 1st in rushing yds/gm. To counteract that rushing attack, CIN is currently ranked 7th best in rushing defense. It’s a risky play but it could pay big dividends considering how bad the CLE offense has been lately, just ask OBJ’s dad.
Top Cash Fades:
QB: Patrick Mahomes ($8500 FD): This one is a shocker! Something needs to change with the KC offense to get Mahomes back on track. He has a combined 23 FD points over the past two weeks. Why pay $8500 when I can pay down for Lamar at $8300 or pay up a little for Josh Allen and get rushing from both? I am out on Mahomes this week.
RB: Myles Gaskin ($6100 FD):
Just because something is a fair price, doesn’t mean you should buy it. In this case, Myles Gaskin. Miami can’t run the ball, that’s a fact. It is not as much an indictment on Gaskin than it is the horrible Miami offensive line. Miami has also been passing 65.4% of the time this season. Gaskin has been catching passes but Tua will be doing most of the work this week.
WR: Courtland Sutton ($6700 FD): Sutton has had back-to-back games of 15% target shares. Jerry Jeudy returned last week and no Bronco saw over 4 targets. I’m not sure if this is a by-product of Teddy two-gloves or Shurmur, but Sutton should be featured in this offense and lately he hasn’t been. There is good boom potential, but even larger bust potential.
TE: Travis Kelce ($7800 FD): Kelce has failed to score 15 FD points in each of his last 5 games. That being said, he has had 10 or more targets in 3 of his last 5 games. I don’t completely hate paying for Kelce, but I prefer paying down at TE on this slate to ensure I get a stud RB in cash. Kelce should make for a decent GPP play.
D/ST: MIA D/ST ($4300 FD): I always dislike paying up for defenses but especially in a situation like this: an ambiguous offense (HOU) and defense (MIA). Houston has been hit or miss lately offensively. HOU has scored 20+ points in 3 out of their last 7 games, the other four games, 9 points or less. Plus, Tyrod Taylor is returning this week. MIA is tied for just 22nd in pressure rate at 23.8% per pro football reference. The Dolphins also only have 3 INT’s on the year. I wouldn’t feel confident with MIA as a cash game defense.
Top Plays Cash:
QB:
High priced - Josh Allen ($9000 FD):
Allen is expensive but he has had 3 straight games of 27 or more FD points. He is about as safe as it gets at the QB position.
Mid-low priced - Lamar Jackson ($8300 FD): Jackson should be a popular pick this week. He gets to face a Vikings defense that just lost its best pass-rusher in Danielle Hunter for the season while coming off a bye with a fully healthy receiving corps for the first time all season.
Mid-low priced - Joe Burrow ($7600 FD): Just because Cincy lost to the Jets doesn’t mean it was Burrows fault. Burrow is wheeling and dealing, having thrown for 3 TD’s ,three games in a row. His passing yardage has fluctuated a bit, but he is still cranking out 30+ attempts (4 out of last 5 games 30 or more attempts). Let’s also not be deceived by the Browns defense who just held Teddy two-gloves and the corpse of Big Ben to a combined 29 points. Before those games, they gave up 47 and 37 points to better offenses and I certainly categorize the Bengals as a better offense.
Tua Tagovailoa $7300 FD (see GPP section)
RB:
Aaron Jones ($8500 FD): With Rodgers out, this play just increased in value. Jones had 11 targets alone last week vs. Arizona and will certainly get the call against a toothless KC defense. Jordan Love meet Aaron Jones.
Zeke ($8200 FD): The Denver defense is a fraud. Their rushing defense has gradually gotten worse the past three weeks. They’ve given up 87, 146 (D’Ernest Johnson night), and 90 rushing yards to RB’s the past three weeks. Obviously, we can’t predict TD’s, but Zeke hasn’t scored in two weeks. Something tells me that changes drastically this week. Zeke has had 16 or more carries in every game except one this year. He also has three games with 95 or more yards AND has 11 targets over the past two games. Oh boy.
Damien Harris ($6600 FD): Although Harris doesn’t get the passing down work, he’s absolutely smashing at the moment. Here’s what Harris has accomplished over the past four weeks:
Increased snaps (21, 25, 34, 40)
14 or more carries in each game
Two 100 yard games
5 rushing TD’s
Harris is on fire and NE is letting him do his thing.
WR: Stefon Diggs ($7600 FD):
I know Diggs hasn’t had a huge game this year, but why not this game? The JAX defense was just fileted by Geno Smith of all people, so imagine what Allen and Diggs will do to them? I get that his target share hasn’t been as dominant as last year but being the number 1 WR on a pass first team is a safe bet.
WR: Tee Higgins ($6000 FD): If you like volume, then Higgins is your guy. He has accumulated 21 targets over the past two weeks and eams are moving more coverage to Chase. “But Clay, he hasn’t scored any TD’s!” That’s true, however, he has also had 3 red zone targets the past two weeks, so he is getting opportunities, he just has not cashed in yet.
WR: Devante Parker ($6200 FD): Just when we had the Miami offense figured out, Parker came back and shook everything up. Parker is an injury risk, yet his 20 targets in two games from Tua is enticing. His stat line with Tua is 12/162/1. Even better, Parker draws the Texans defense.
TE: Mark Andrews ($7100 FD): Andrews has had 6 or more targets in each of his last five games. Even with Rashod Bateman entering the fold, Andrews still maintained a 16.7% target share. With the Ravens holding steady at a 52.4% pass rate, Andrews should get plenty of work.
TE: Hey Arnold! Dan Arnold ($5100 FD): Arnold had a 18.5% target share last week and Lawrence seems to trust him. It also doesn’t hurt that JAX is constantly trailing and sporting a 62.8% pass rate. There are plenty of footballs to go around in this offense.
D/ST: Las Vegas Raiders ($4200 FD): Per pro football reference, the Raiders are 6th best in pressure rate (hurries + QB knockdowns + all sack plays/dropback). Combine that with a depleted Giants offensive line and skill players and it could be a good day for the Raiders.
Lone-Ranger Plays:
Jamal Agnew ($5200 FD): It’s a risky play, but Agnew has had a stable target share the past three weeks (21.2%, 14.6%, 22.2%). The opportunity is there and maybe he can connect with Lawrence in garbage time for some big points.
Final Thoughts:
Bills onslaught stacks for GPP’s is a recipe for success (would NOT recommend a JAX bring-back this week). I also like Lamar double-stacks and the Vikings bring-backs are magnificent!
Best of luck in week 9, go get that money!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.