Week 9: Buy Low and Sell High

Each week, several members of the BRoto staff will offer one player each to buy low on and one player each to sell high on. Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring players at their lowest value and dealing players at their highest values!

Now let's dive in to the week 9 targets and sells:

Buy Low 

Brandon Aiyuk - WR San Francisco 49ers

Sometimes in life, you think you are leaving someone in the past, never to be seen again. But like an ex-girlfriend that you keep bumping into on the train, Brandon Aiyuk is creeping his way back into my thoughts and dreams. 

On Sunday, Aiyuk played in 88% of the snaps, a 17% jump from his 71% snap count in his last two games and an 18% jump up from his season average, leading the WRs for the first time this season. Most importantly though, his target percentage jumped to a season-high 25% (previous high was 15%) with his seven targets against the Bears. 

Even with all of that increased opportunity, Aiyuk still struggled to produce for fantasy managers, coming in at WR36 on the week. So why am I falling in love with Aiyuk again? 

Deebo Samuel, who has absolutely dominated the WR production so far this season and is currently sitting at WR3 overall in PPR formats, popped up on the injury report with a calf issue last Sunday. Samuel, who has a history of soft-tissue injuries that dates back to his days in college, has missed time with injuries in every collegiate and professional season he has played in, outside of his senior year at South Carolina. 

Last season, Aiyuk filled into Samuel’s role as the alpha WR while Deebo was out at different times with a broken foot and strained hamstring, and excelled to the tune of six WR14 or better finishes. 

Think of Aiyuk as the Tony Pollard of WRs. He’s an excellent handcuff in case the star player in front of him gets injured and his uptick in usage means he can be playable on his own in the right circumstances. Right now, you can probably find him on your waiver wire or get him for dirt cheap from the manager who rosters him. If a couple of the right pieces fall into place, he could be a game changer. 

Is it a pipe dream? Maybe. But it’s at least worth a stash in my opinion, or at least a late-night “wyd?” text. 

• Tim Petropoulos 

Tennessee Titans D/ST

If you read Clay’s Corner for week 8, then you already know about the Titans defense. Yes, I realize they’ve given up 30+ points four times this season but we need to take a deeper look at what is happening in Tennessee. Here are some of the interesting stats about the TEN D/ST (via profootballreference):

• Tied for 7th in total sacks (18)

• 4th in hurry% (QB hurries/dropback)

• 12th in pressure% (hurries + knockdowns + all sacks/dropback). 

• 1st in pressures (85)

• Tied for 4th in INTs

• Tied for 3rd in passes defended

• 4th in takeaways (11)

This team is getting after the QB, causing sacks and creating turnovers. That is all that matters in fantasy football. Sure, holding an opponent to a low score is great but shutouts can still be out-scored by turnovers. Now, with Henry out, we can expect more passing and in turn, more opportunities for the defense to cause sacks/turnovers. The last part of buying the Titans D/ST? The schedule. The Titans only have to face 3 more teams that have a greater than .500 record this season and features matchups with the Texans, Patriots, Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Texans. Wipe the drool off your chin and go get the Titans D/ST. 

• Clayton Jones

Justin Jefferson - WR Minnesota Vikings

Essentially Sports

Justin Jefferson is coming off of a tough matchup against Trevon Diggs last week and a bye the week prior. If those factors have changed the opinion of the Jefferson manager, it is time to act now. 

Below is a chart, courtesy of the Fantasy Football by BRoto app, highlighting fantasy points allowed and fantasy points over average for Jefferson’s upcoming schedule -

There are a couple tough matchups but Jefferson will have the opportunity to exploit good-to-great matchups in the majority of his weeks. On top of that, Jefferson’s stats show that he is just waiting to explode. Jefferson is still maintaining a 22.8% target share and is ranked in the top 15 in: targets (63), receptions (43), and big plays (8).  

Currently, the Vikings have been passing 58.5% of the time, a significant increase from 2019’s 49.5% passing rate and a decent increase from 2020’s rate of 52.4%. These aren’t your Daddy’s Vikings (we are talking to you Klint Kubiak). Jefferson’s value will probably never be lower and he has yet to see his ceiling this season. Buy low.

• Clayton Jones 

Sell High

Aaron Jones - RB Green Bay Packers 

Aaron Jones is coming off one of his best performances of the 2021 season in Week 8. Against a formidable Arizona Cardinals defense, Jones rushed for 59 yards and a TD, and  saw 11 targets for seven catches and 51 receiving yards — good for 24.0 fantasy points. The thing is though, the Packers were without their three top receivers: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Plus, Robert Tonyan, the Packers starting tight end, exited the game in the third quarter after suffering a season-ending knee injury. Due to the crazy circumstances, Week 8 was the Jones and Cobb show.

Heading into Week 9 the circumstances are even crazier. Adams, Lazard and Valdes-Scantling are all expected to return to practice and be able to play against the Chiefs, but it is Aaron Rodgers who will miss the game on the COVID list. Barring any more injuries, it’s safe to assume that Jones won’t see as much passing game work as he did in Week 8.

Furthermore, Packers back-up RB A.J. Dillion has proven in the little opportunity that he has been given that he needs more playing time. 

In the three games that Dillion has exceeded double-digit rushing attempts, he has averaged 5.23 yards per carry. With a big Packers three-and-a-half game lead in the NFC North over the second place Minnesota Vikings, would it surprise anybody if the Packers clinched the division by Week 14 or 15 and decided to give more work to Dillion near the end of the season?

If you can flip Jones for someone like Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris or Nick Chubb, who all play on teams that will be fighting for their postseason lives, do it now so you don’t end up getting screwed in the fantasy playoffs. 

• Kyle McKee

Robert Woods - WR Los Angeles Rams

Oh, the good ole’ ice cream sandwich Robert Woods. Just when you thought you had enough, he is back and as tasty as ever. After getting off to a dreadful start, Woods is the PPR WR9 overall in the last 5 weeks. Time to trade him.

Although I still believe Woods will be a nice low-end WR2 for the rest of the season, his recent high-output performances have been mostly a mirage boosted by TD production. In his last 3 games, in which he has scored three touchdowns (2 receiving, one rushing), Woods has averaged just over 6 targets, 3 catches and 45 receiving yards per game, respectively, seeing only 3 more targets over that span than Van Jefferson.

With Cooper Kupp being the obvious favorite target, Jefferson’s role increasing, and the most opportunities going to RB Derrell Henderson, Woods is the third option, at best, on the Rams offense. Now, this is a high-powered offense, so expect Woods to be a solid option moving forward, but if you can sell his name and recent production for an upgrade, his trade value will likely never be higher.

• Tim Petropoulos 

Tyler Boyd - WR Cincinnati Bengals 

Complacency can be a killer in fantasy football. Managers vying for a championship this year should always be attempting to build a stronger roster. Redraft fantasy trade deadlines are closing in. Now is the time to separate the pretenders from contenders.

Tyler Boyd has fallen off a cliff of production after a 20.8-point performance against the Jaguars in Week 4. Boyd’s snap percentages and target share have dwindled amidst the breakout of rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase. 

Opposite of Chase is sophomore standout Tee Higgins. Higgins surprisingly leads the team in target rate at 27.4%, according to the Fantasy Football by BRoto App. Boyd’s tertiary role behind his star cohorts led to a drought of minimal production that was finally snapped in Week 8 against the Jets. This boom in production offers managers a window of opportunity to trade Boyd for a more stable asset.

Currently ranked as WR32 in 2021, Boyd’s overall fantasy point total tells a deceptive story. Boyd is averaging just 11.3 FPTS per game this season, ranked 45th amongst wide receivers. I suggest attempting to find a trade for a player with more stable production.

• Matt Ward

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