Week 11 was a crazy week in the NFL, especially for bettors. After a promising start with a Patriots TNF cover, we only managed to hit on one other line (Bears +4.5) as the Packers lost a heartbreaker, the Giants underwhelmed (shocker), and the Titans and Bills failed to show up to their games. Unfortunately, that's the nature of this “Any Given Sunday” NFL we have come to know and love. Sometimes good teams play bad games. As long as the process is good, the bounce back will come. Here at BRoto our process is always good, so let’s bounce back! Get fired up, it's time for Week 12!
Chargers -2.5 @ Broncos (-115)
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
The Los Angeles Chargers never seem to cover big lines. They are constantly in one score games, and this one will be no different. Luckily the spread is only -2.5 (one score). I also like the -142 ML as a parlay piece. The Broncos are coming off their BYE week but they have no reliability at quarterback (sorry Teddy Two-Glove stans) and, without Von Miller, this defense is going to come up short more often than not. Blowing out the Cowboys was an anomaly. I expect the Chargers to cover—probably not super comfortably but they should pull it off nonetheless.
Vikings +3 @ 49ers (-105)
Speaking of one score games, here we have the Vikings. Coming off a huge win against Green Bay, Minnesota is a 3 point underdog to San Francisco. Aside from the annihilation of the Rams (a team that seems to only lose in dramatic fashion), San Francisco has yet to win an impressive game. With the exception of a 13 point victory in Week 6 over Seattle, Minnesota still has yet to win, or more importantly, lose, a game by more than a score. 3 points is not a ton of wiggle room but I like the Vikings chances to win outright, so this line looks really nice. The Vikings offense looks to have blossomed to peak form, so it is safe to ride with confidence.
Packers ML vs Rams (+110)
Green Bay at 9-2 ATS is a team that should be taken every week, despite letting us down last week. As 2 point underdogs, I felt it more prudent to try to pick the winner. Hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the cold winter fortress that is Lambeau Field, this line feels a little disrespectful. The Rams are coming off their BYE but, with two bad losses in a row and Robert Woods out for the season, this line is a little puzzling. Frankly, this team has not looked good in nearly a month and while I do believe in the Rams over the course of the rest of the season, a west coast team playing against the reigning MVP in Wisconsin does not feel like the game that will get them right—the Jaguars can assist in that next week. 34 degrees and partly cloudy could be worse but 17 mph winds will make for a challenge. Packers +2 is safer (-110), but I opted for the plus money to pick outright.
Props
Jonathan Taylor to score 2 TDs (+260)
At this point, JT is far more likely to score a TD than to not, so you should have the single TD line (-260) in a parlay somewhere every week. 2 TDs is always a little shaky, but coming off an all-time-great 5 TD performance against the best rush defense in the league feels like a weird time to lose confidence. This line is worth a sprinkle at +260, especially against a contender in the Buccaneers. Taylor seems to rise to the big moments. Have some fun with this one!
Jalen Hurts to score 2 TDs (+900)
Same situation as Jonathan Taylor above, Hurts is more likely to rush one in than not (+115 for 1 TD) and we have seen him do it more than once in the same game multiple times this year already. The Giants are bad (take it from me, I am finally willing to admit) so the matchup is not concerning. Another fun spot to sprinkle in some fun and the line offers great value at +900.
Cam Newton to score 2 TDs (+1200)
Rinse, repeat. Same situation as Jalen Hurts. Newton has 2 rushing TDs through 2 weeks and the Dolphins defense is not exactly formidable. Throw 1 TD (+150) into a parlay or take it straight, and sprinkle on the +1200. So much value!
Receiving: Brandon Aiyuk o55.5 yards (-114), Deebo Samuel o5.5 receptions (-108)
According to Points Over Avg, an exclusive stat on the Fantasy Football by BRoto app, the Vikings allow 16% more points to the WR than average, good for the 6th best matchup for the 49ers to exploit. If the 49ers are going to hang with the Vikings and make a run at this game, they will need to utilize the WR position. I foresee a lot of manufactured touches for Deebo, so six receptions should be achievable, especially if they run some touch pass jet sweeps (which count as receptions). Aiyuk finally looked to be involved in the offense last week and the reports are that he is improving in the eyes of the coaching staff. 55.5 is an achievable number for a receiver of Aiyuk’s skill level and the matchup is too nice not to take it.
Justin Jefferson o85.5 receiving yards (-114)
Last week, Justin Jefferson had 8 receptions for 169 yards and 2 TDs, netting him the WR1 overall performance for the week. 85.5 yards is a low number for a receiver that I expect to push 100 yards more often than not for the rest of the season. Jefferson is basically matchup proof at this point, so facing off against the average 49ers defense (17th in points over average) is certainly not enough to scare me away. Ride with confidence!
Davante Adams Anytime TD Scorer (+100)
Don’t overthink this one. Even money for one of the most talented receivers in the league to score a TD in one of the biggest matchups of the year? Catching passes from the reigning MVP? I don’t care about Jalen Ramsey, Davante will get his. Full send!
Other TD Scorers/Parlay Pieces
All of these players are very likely to score week-in and week-out based on their utilization in their respective offenses. All are also less than even money so feel free to mix and match them into parlays as you see fit!
Austin Ekeler (-175)
Najee Harris (-130)
Ja’Marr Chase (-105) (this one might be worth a solo wager)
Jonathan Taylor (-260)
Nick Chubb (-115)
System:
Like almost everything last week, the system we have been tracking (teams that did not cover the week prior against teams that did) was less than ideal. 4/5 did not cover, with the sole winner being the Colts. This brings the system to 42-21-1 (which is still really good). I still think this system will continue to regress, but some of these lines are looking better than the past few weeks. Proceed with caution!
Bills -7 @ Saints (covered)
Giants +3.5 vs Eagles
Seahawks +1 @ WFT
Titans +7 @ Patriots (no AJ Brown)
Jets +2.5 @ Texans
Panthers -2 @ Dolphins
FINAL NOTE:
There is only 1 spread at 7 points this week, every other spread is inside of that. That means a lot of one score games, a lot of toss ups, and a lot of heartbreak. Tread lightly, this is not the week to throw a ton of money around. Responsible betting is key. Little victories can be just as fun, don't break the bank!
By Mike “Schiz” Schissel (@michaelschissel)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.