For over 50 years, the NFL has (literally) kicked off the holiday season with countless classic football games on Thanksgiving day. Several players have made a name for themselves during the holiday classic, including a Randy Moss 163-yard, three-catch, three-touchdown performance in 1998 that comes to mind every time I think of cranberry sauce.
The NFL is treating us to three games on this festive occasion:
Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Buffalo Bills (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)
The table is set. Grab a plate and join me as I look at which players are going to “eat” this Thursday.
Big Plates
Josh Allen QB - Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo News
Josh Allen is like the new boyfriend your sister brings home for Thanksgiving. He’s more handsome than you, your family members universally adore him, and whether you like it or not, he’s going to score. The Saints are allowing 278.0% defensive points over average (POA) allowed to quarterbacks on run plays. As Jalen Hurts demonstrated with his three rushing touchdowns in Week 11, the Saints struggle to mitigate rushing quarterback production. Allen is a superb runner and should have no issues finding free space to work against the Saints defense.
Stefon Diggs WR - Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs will be facing a challenging matchup against one of the league's best lockdown cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore excels against physical receivers but has been susceptible to separation from deceptive route-runners. Even with Lattimore, the Saints defense concedes 14.2% POA to wide receivers at 29.3 FPTS per game.Like apple pie, people may fade the dish's appearance on the surface, but underneath the crust lies a sweet feast.
David Montgomery RB - Chicago Bears
David Montgomery is the stove-top stuffing of Thanksgiving day fantasy football. It might not be your first choice in the lineup, but he's quick, reliable, efficient and gets the job done. The Bears are on the road against the Lions on what should be a frigid day in Michigan. Andy Dalton will start at quarterback, as Justin Fields nurses a rib injury. All signs point towards Montgomery receiving a sizable workload during a game in which both offenses will struggle to score. The Lions are giving up 26.4 FPTS to running backs this season, 36.3% POA. If the Bears hope to avoid an embarrassing loss to the winless Lions, they will need to rely heavily on Montgomery’s production.
Little Plates
Trevor Siemian QB - New Orleans Saints
Draftkings Nation
You know the long-lost, estranged Uncle that nobody ever mentions but shows up to Thanksgiving dinner with a mullet, smelling like cinnamon and pipe tobacco and expects to eat with everyone else? Yeah, that’s Trevor Siemian. The Saints recently re-signed Taysom Hill to a multi-year hybrid deal wherein he will get compensated based on the position he plays and stats he accumulates. However, no reports from within the Saints organization suggest Taysom Hill will be the starting quarterback this Thursday. Regardless of who is taking snaps as the starter, the matchup they will face is less than ideal. The Bills defense relents a mere 11.9 FPTS per game to quarterbacks. That’s best in the NFL and an incredible -32.4% POA. The Saints may decide to split the snaps between the two, but it won’t matter. These quarterbacks are leaving hungry.
Bryan Edwards WR - Las Vegas Raiders
Bryan Edwards is the guest that tries to be “fashionably late” by coming four hours after dinner starts and then wonders why their plate is empty. Edwards has all the hype of a WR1 with none of the production to back it up. Edwards was presumed to take a leap in his second year as a pro, both in usage and production. The entire Raiders depth chart has cleared the way for Edwards to be a focal point of the passing offense, yet Edwards fails to take hold of the opportunity. After multiple games this season without a single target, I would not rely on Edwards to elevate his play any time soon.
Josh Jacobs RB - Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs is that person at the table that fills their plate with mounds of every item and then only eats six bites and jokingly exclaims, “Sorry y’all, I guess my eyes are bigger than my stomach.” You can give Josh Jacobs all the opportune touches, he just doesn’t do much with them. Jacobs averages -0.07 Rushing Yards Over Expected per Attempt (RYOE/ATT) this season, 42nd amongst running backs. Jacobs’ 0.534 Points Per Opportunity Excluding TDs (PPOxTD) ranks 39th. The Cowboys permit only 18.4 FPTS to the RB position, -13.8% POA. I do not expect managers to be giving many thanks to Jacobs after this matchup.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
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Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff. Please follow me on LinkTree to stay up to date on all of my content: @PsychWardFF. You can also find my other works as the Lead Writer at BRoto Fantasy Football and a Staff Writer at Dynasty Football Factory.
By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.