Week 12: Sleepers and Busts

Sleepers

QB: Tyrod Taylor - Houston Texans

I’m not going to lie, writing this feels icky. We’ve seen enough Taylor and enough Texans offense to know that a giant goose egg type game could be on the horizon. This week though, when peeking over said horizon, you see the bright green of the Jets pass defense and all of a sudden, a smile hits your face because it's a new day.

The Jets have been the gift that keeps on giving for fantasy matchups. On the season, they have given up over 20 FPPG to the QB position, nearly 25% more points than QB’s they’ve faced average (POA). Going by just those numbers, Taylor is projected to exceed 20 points this week, an excellent number for a streamer.

The Jets have also been terrible against the run, allowing over 67% more POA to running backs, by far the best matchup in the NFL. With the unimpressive duo of Rex Burkhead and David Johnson at running back, if Taylor can add a rushing TD and a few rushing yards, he could be a smash play. Taylor ranks 4th among NFL QBs in rushing TDs (3) and 16th in rushing yards (106) despite only starting 4 games this season.

  • Tim Petropoulos

RB: J.D. McKissic - Washington Football Team

If you subscribe to the odd/even week narrative for McKissic, last week left you fresh out of luck as the streak finally got snapped. I, on the other hand, like to look at fantasy points allowed over average. With that in mind, last week McKissic had the worst possible matchup, as he faced the powerhouse Carolina defense that allows the 32nd (fewest) POA to receiving RBs and 21st rushing.

This week, on the other hand, the WFT will face the Seattle Seahawks. A defense that allows the most POA to receiving RBs (+67.6%) and 10th most rushing (+10.1%).

McKissic is a matchup-dependent RB in a great matchup coming after a bad matchup. He's available in 50% of leagues and has the potential to put up 15-18 half PPR points. Plug him in now.

  • Santiago Casanova

WR: Kendrick Bourne - New England Patriots

Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Ranked WR30 in PPR scoring, Kendrick Bourne has been a crucial weapon in the Patriots' offense. A silent assassin of efficiency, Bourne has been flying under the radar despite being one of the league's top wideouts on a per touch basis. He is averaging 12.0 yards per target, ranked 3rd amongst all receivers in the NFL. His 2.31 yards per route and 15.2 yards per reception rank a respectable 18th and 22nd. 

Bourne’s catch rate represents his consistent reliability as a safety blanket for rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Bourne has just two drops in 2021 with a top five catch rate at 78.7%. I will concede to the doubters that Bourne’s reliable efficiency has not led to consistent production on the fantasy scoreboards. However, the matchup on the slate for Bourne and the Patriots this week is too good to ignore.

The Patriots (7-4) are home favorites against the Titans (8-3) in Week 12, with a surprising 7.0 point spread between the two teams. The Titans sit atop the leaderboard in the AFC, but the Patriots have been the hottest team in the NFL, winning five straight games.

The Titans defense allows a league-worst 37.7 FPTS per game to wide receivers, equating to 29.7% over average. I expect plenty of opportunities for Bourne to hit his ceiling this week. Slot Bourne into your flex spots for this scintillating matchup against a porous Titans secondary.

  • Matt Ward

TE: Logan Thomas - Washington Football Team

Alright yes, I’ll say it. This one is a risk considering we don’t even know if Logan Thomas is 100% playing on Monday or not, but with Ricky Seals-Jones looking like he’s out this game, I’m willing to bet Thomas will be active after practicing this week. 

With it being only a few days since Thanksgiving and everyone still in the holiday mood,  it is important to remember what you’re thankful for, and boy oh boy, am I thankful for how bad the Seahawks defense has been against opposing tight ends.

Seattle has allowed 34.8% points over average to tight ends this season, which makes them the 4th best matchup in the eyes of us fantasy football managers. They have allowed over five receptions and fifty yards per game to tight ends this season and have allowed a tight end to score a TD in almost half of their games. Obviously this is a great thing for any tight end, but especially for one as talented as Logan Thomas.

While Thomas is not the best tight end in the league, he has proven that he is more than good enough to earn targets in that Washington offense and has become quite the reliable fantasy option the past two years when he’s healthy. Just this year alone in the three games he played, Thomas scored no less than seven points in half PPR, and while that doesn’t scream greatness, it shows he has a decent floor in that Washington offense. Plus if you go take a look at Thomas’ insane 2020 season in which he scored over 10 points in seven different games and managed to finish the season as a top five TE, it’s clear this cat can produce for his fantasy managers. 

I’m excited for Thomas’ return to the football field and I’m eagerly hoping to see him get the chance to dominate this terrific matchup. It would be the perfect way for him to make his return from IR and go right back to being a solid fantasy performer. Of course, there’s a chance he may not play, but if he makes his comeback this week against Seattle, I fully expect a quality fantasy performance out of him. It’s been in his DNA the past two seasons. 

  • Boyd Armstrong

Busts

QB: Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee Titans

Long live the TTV king. The man who has brought many BRoto listeners to the promised land over the past three seasons has a special place in all of our hearts. But for this week, the special place you reserve for him needs to be your bench.

A king can only control so much without his army. Coming into this game, his top lieutenants Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, AJ Brown, Marcus Johnson and Jeremy McNichols are all not active. This leaves Tannehill traveling to Foxboro with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers, D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard to face off against the red-hot Patriots defense that has allowed just one TD in the last three games. 

To make matters worse, New England only allows 13.6 FPPG to the QB position overall this season. Their -21.8% POA makes them the second-worst matchup for QBs.

This would have been an uphill climb for Tannehill even if his weapons were all available, but with his weapons down for the count, its time to wave the white flag on the TTV King, for this week at least.

  • Tim Petropoulos

RB: Kareem Hunt - Cleveland Browns

Kareem Hunt has just been activated off the IR and is coming back to a shaken-up RB room. Since the D'Ernest Johnson blowup game, he has made it into the mix as a solid backup, something that could hinder Hunt's involvement going forward. Maybe it won't be as significant rest-of-season, but I wouldn't be surprised if they ease him in, post-injury, now that they have another solid option on the roster.

To make matters less ideal, the Browns face the Ravens, who allow the 30th most POA to RBs. This is personally not a concern for Chubb, but it does make me not want to start the returning Hunt just yet. Give him a week and find a streaming option in the meantime if possible.

  • Santiago Casanova

WR: Mike Williams - Los Angeles Chargers

Mike Williams’ previous 20.7 point outing was an apparition, not a continuation of his early-season production. I highlighted those narratives previously this week in Broto’s Week 12: Buy Low and Sell High article.

Williams’ target share does not support the claims of an alpha wide receiver role in the Chargers offense. If you were unable to trade Williams this week, sitting him against the Broncos may be the best course of action.

The Chargers (6-4) take their talents to the mile-high city in an AFC West matchup against the Broncos (5-5). Managers may be feeling confident in Williams after a big performance in Week 11. The Broncos present an uphill battle at a repeat performance for Williams. The Broncos' defense allows just 218.1 passing yards per game. Williams is on the wrong end of a usage decline and was reliant on his first touchdown in five games to cross the 20.0 point threshold. Williams has not earned more than six targets in any of those five games. 

Touchdowns are not a predictable or dependable stat but targets can be. Williams has been out-targeted by both Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler in the last five games after leading the Chargers in targets through the first five. Williams has again reverted into a touchdown-dependent fantasy asset, relying on one big play to produce meaningful scoring numbers. Unfortunately for Williams and his managers, the Denver Broncos have given up only 13 passing touchdowns this season. 

My initial advice would be to trade Mike Williams before kickoff but if you can’t pull off a deal, try and pivot elsewhere to a more reliable option. 

  • Matt Ward

TE: Hunter Henry - New England Patriots

Well folks, it is my turn to try and be the “TE Whisperer” for the week and I am feeling pretty confident about things. Whenever I’m trying to decide on which TE to plug into my lineup, I am always focus on what their matchup is for the week. Obviously I want to avoid those with the difficult and challenging matchups, which is exactly why I am avoiding Hunter Henry this week as the Patriots face off against the Titans.

Tennessee is the 5th toughest matchup for tight ends in fantasy football, which is a major red flag for those wanting to roll out Hunter Henry. The Titans defense has been destroying opposing TE’s fantasy value, week after week, no matter who they’re facing. The most points they’ve allowed for a TE to score in half PPR was in week 7 when they faced Travis Kelce, who scored 10 points in a measly week for him, which is currently his 3rd worst fantasy performance of the season. If the king Travis Kelce isn’t able to get anything going, I doubt Hunter Henry can.

Hunter Henry is the TE9 on the season so far, but he has done this while only demanding a 12.5% target share in the Patriots offense. He has not been receiving an excess amount of targets as there are a lot of mouths to feed in New England this year and an emphasis on the rushing game. His saving grace has been the 7(!) touchdowns he has scored in their 11 games played.

Despite the TDs, Henry has still only broken the 10 point marker three times in half PPR leagues. In fact, in games where Henry doesn’t score a touchdown, he averages roughly 4.5 points per game, and in games where he does score, he averages 12 points per game. This isn’t exactly what you’d like to see from your starting fantasy TE since touchdowns are such an inconsistent stat and there is no way of knowing when his hot streak will come to an end.

Henry is clearly a TD dependent fantasy option and when someone like that is up against one of the possible toughest matchups, I’m always going to look to pivot to a different option. I would advise that you do the same. 

  • Boyd Armstrong

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