Week 11: Betting with Schiz

Week 10 was another good week for the BRoto Bettors! Outside of the Titans missing the cover by a half point, we went undefeated on the traditional lines. The Cowboys and Packers both covered handily which made for a nice profit foundation. The parlay only hit 2 out of 4, with the Eagles and the Vikings both pulling off upsets. Hopefully you had a few combinations of the 4 and were able to turn a profit! Let’s dive into Week 11.

Bills -7.5 vs. Colts (-110)* 

BUF 5-3-1 ATS

The Colts are on a tear and the Bills, despite a get right game last week against the Jets, have been very up and down this season. So why such a large cover? The proof is in the matchup:

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The Bills are among the toughest of matchups for opposing offenses. While Jonathan Taylor has been a superstar in recent weeks and should still have a decent performance, he will have to carry the entirety of the offense on his back in order for the Colts to stay in this game. Carson Wentz has been shaky at best, making a lot of questionable decisions and being bailed out by his defense and running game. With the Bills ranked as the toughest matchup for opposing QB’s, there is plenty of opportunity for the Buffalo defense to exploit Wentz and company. The Colts on the other hand have been tough against the run but completely susceptible through the air, allowing the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd highest points over average to the TE, QB, and WR, respectively. While -7.5 is normally a line to avoid because of the nature of a two-score cover, this one makes too much sense. Ride with confidence! 

BONUS: Dawson Knox has the best matchup in POA this week, with Indy averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game to the TE. Knox Anytime TD scorer, Knox to score 2 TD’s, Knox receptions over, and Knox receiving yards over are all in play here.

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Bears +4.5 vs Ravens (-110)*

CHI 4-5 ATS 

This line opened up at 6 points and has already moved to 4.5. There are more than a few reasons not to trust the Ravens this week, starting with their awful record against the spread. Baltimore is 3-6 generally ATS this season but an abysmal 1-6 when they are favorites (and 0-2 on the road). They are both favorits and on the road this week. It has been a struggle to crack the code that is the 2021 Ravens but it seems to have finally shown itself. Do not bet on the Ravens to cover unless they are underdogs, especially on the road. The movement of this line from -6 to -4.5 brings about some pause, so take this one cautiously. An alternate spread of -6 parlayed with a safer ML from another game to bring closer to even money might be the sharper course of action here. Either way, the Ravens will have more trouble than expected with this Bears squad.

Packers -2.5 @ Vikings (-110)

9-1 ATS

This is a given at this point. The Packers are 9-1 ATS, 9-0 since Week 1. I repeat it every week so I’ll keep it short: Bet the Packers ATS every week for the rest of the season and you will turn a profit. 

Titans -10 vs. Houston (-110)

7-3 ATS

Tennessee is in a similar boat to Green Bay: they are 7-3 ATS and had covered 5 in a row leading into last week, where they missed the cover by one half of a point. Division matchups always bring some nervousness to the slate but Houston is a bad football team and, despite not covering last week, the Titans extended their winning streak to 6 games. A nice, easy matchup against the Texans gives Tennessee plenty of room to get back on track this week before a tough showdown in New England. Take this one with moderate to high confidence.

BONUS

Giants +11 @ Tampa Bay (-110)

5-4 ATS 

This is a bonus play because it’s the game I’m least confident in but we have some interesting stuff here that should not be ignored:

- Daniel Jones’ first NFL game was played in Tampa Bay and he came back from a deficit to win, rushing for 2 TD’s and throwing for another 2 in the process.

- Tom Brady struggles against the New York Football Giants. Always has, always will.

- The Giants are coming off a victory and BYE week. The Buccaneers are coming off a bad loss to Washington.

- The Giants have lost by more than a score only twice this season with a full and healthy lineup: against the Broncos in Week 1 and the Rams in Week 6. They have since blown out the Panthers, played the Chiefs to a field goal, and defeated the Saints and Raiders.

- Saquon Barkley should return to the field this week, as should Andrew Thomas.

All of the above factors considered, 11 is a lot of points to cover. Proceed with caution.

SYSTEM WATCH

Last week, I pointed out a system that was 37-14-1 ATS. Teams that did not cover the week prior, wagered against teams that did cover the week prior. Of the 6 matchups that fit that criteria, 4 were successful, 2 were not. The system record improved to 41-17-1. Here are the matchups for this week:

*Falcons +6.5 vs Patriots

*Colts +6.5 @ Bills

*Baltimore -6 @ Bears

Browns -11.5 vs Lions

Jets +3.5 vs Dolphins

Once again, these lines do not particularly stand out to me. The Bills and Patriots to cover are my favorite lines this week (The Patriots did, in fact, cover on TNF). It’s worth noting that the Ravens have counted as a loss for this system multiple times this season, including this past week. The Browns should cover but after their abysmal performance last week, it is hard to feel good about a two score cover. The Jets/Dolphins are two bad teams which I typically try to avoid. Nonetheless, this is the system and we will continue to monitor its success rate.

Happy Betting everyone!

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By Michael “Schiz” Shissel (@michaelschissel)