Sleepers
QB: Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
Creator: Eric Espada | Credit: Getty Images
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for Tua. Constant injuries have soured a promising season of on-field production. He’s back under center in Week 11 with a fantastic matchup.
The Jets defense is a sneaky play this week, ranking 15th in points allowed against a mediocre Dolphins offense, but the Jets are 4th in points allowed over average (POA) against QBs with +26.9. This means that QBs that face the Jets score 26% above their season average fantasy points. If their PPG allowed isn't higher, it's because their competition hasn't been good enough to raise it.
The last time Tua faced a top-10 defense in PAO he put up 28 points. Take advantage of his dropped rostership and use him as a plug-and-play for Week 11.
Santiago Casanova
RB: Myles Gaskin - Miami Dolphins
In the same game, the Jets have been a home run matchup for RBs, allowing 72.9% fantasy points over the average (POA) to the position this season, 33.1% over the second-worst team. Unless the Jets miraculously improved overnight , Gaskin should be in store for a massive day at the office.
Managers have resorted to fading Myles Gaskin in their lineups due to his lack of consistent usage and production against tough matchups. The hesitation is understood but unmitigated for this upcoming contest.
The Jets are conceding 133.9 rushing yards per game and 39.3 total FPTS to running backs, allowing multiple multiple running backs to put up double-digit fantasy points in all but two games. Gaskin may lack in some areas as a pure runner but he has established a solidified role as a premier target in the Dolphins’ passing game. Gaskin has 38 receptions on 48 targets and 174 routes, all top-ten amongst eligible running backs. If you are pondering whether to trust Gaskin in your lineups, ponder no more, the Jets rushing defense can’t slow down a stiff breeze.
Matt Ward
WR: Cole Beasley - Buffalo Bills
When Sunday’s games roll around, plan on having Cole Beasley in your starting lineup.
The Bills matchup against the Colts is absolutely juicy for all WRs as Indianapolis has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing team's wide receivers this season.
Beasley may have popped up on the Bills injury report this week due to a minor rib injury, but this is the same guy who played the final three weeks of the Buffalo’s 2020 playoff run with a partially broken fibula. He’s clearly tough as nails and won’t let this set him back on the football field when it’s game time, especially against a matchup that he could perform well against.
Beasley continues to be the number two option, sporting the second highest target share among Bills receivers with 19.7%, trumping Emmanuel Sanders’ 15.1% target share despite playing almost 20% less snaps. Josh Allen loves to pepper Beasley with targets as he has the second most on the team with 69 (nice).
With a fantastic matchup ahead of him and his quality WR3/flex track record the past few years, you should absolutely start Cole Beasley this week. The matchup is ripe for the taking.
Boyd Armstrong
TE: Cole Kmet - Chicago Bears
The time we have all been waiting for may finally be here: Cole Kmet season.
This is not someone many were high on coming into the year, but it is a name that was floated around all offseason as a potential sleeper at the lowly tight end position.
Through 10 weeks, Kmet is the TE26 overall in half-ppr formats - looks like he’s still sleeping. However, his usage has increased since Justin Fields officially gained the starting QB job and is finally looking to be hitting his stride.
Kmet is currently leading the Bears TE room in snaps (84%), routes run (207), and targets (44). The other four rostered tight ends currently have a combined 104 routes run and 14 total targets. It is clear Kmet is the most viable receiving option at TE with little-to-no competition on his team.
Over his past four games, Kmet has averaged six targets and over 50 yards per game but is yet to find paydirt this season. More importantly, he caught six passes (on 8 targets) for 87 yards in his most recent game. This stat line ties his career high in targets, matches his second highest number of catches, and gave him the highest yards ever in his short career. Things seem to be trending upward for Kmet, and this week he may be even better.
WR Allen Robinson is doubtful to play in Week 11. Although he hasn’t been anywhere close to meeting expectations, any starting pass-catcher being out is helpful in getting Kmet more targets. In addition, the matchup is too good to pass up.
This week the Bears are facing off against the Baitimore Ravens who have allowed 30.3% POA to the tight end position, the 7th most favorable matchup for TEs.
Coming off a bye, with a great matchup and less target competition, Cole Kmet is a great streaming option with rostership in less than 20% across all fantasy platforms.
Nick Beaulieu
Busts
QB: Kirk Cousins - Minnesota Vikings
Cousins is coming off two pretty great performances, but that's about to end this week. The Vikings have a tough matchup against the division-rival Packers who allow the 26 fewest points over average (POA) to QBs, 27th fewest to WRs, and 23rd fewest to RBs.
The Packers are also on a hot streak, having shut down stud QBs Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson in consecutive weeks.
It's a very awkward position for Kirk, and the cards are stacked against him. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him this week.
Santiago Casanova
RB: Antonio Gibson - Washington Football Team
I, like many, was admittedly too high on Antonio Gibson leading into the 2021 season. Trust me when I say this, no one was happier about Antonio Gibson’s bounce-back performance in Week 10 than myself. However, my elation was short-lived when I looked ahead to see Gibson’s next opponent.
Gibson and WFT are on the road against the Carolina Panthers in Week 10. Gibson will be facing the most challenging matchup for running backs in fantasy football. Running backs go into games against the Panthers looking to eat and finish the game starved for production. The Panthers are giving up just 16.9 combined FPTS to running backs this season, leading the NFL with a -27.3% POA.
Marred by injury and wavering production, Gibson’s season has been a disaster to navigate for fantasy managers. Although his season-high 21.8 FPTS against the feared Buccaneers defense was a welcomed bonus, Gibson’s efficiency faltered.
The sophomore back averaged a stuttering 2.67 yards per carry and was only targeted twice in the passing game. Gibson needed two touchdowns to break the 20.0-point threshold in PPR scoring and accumulated just 74 total yards from scrimmage on 26 touches.
Overall, Gibson has not rushed for over 100 yards in any game this season, nor has he caught more than three passes in any contest. He averages a stunningly low -0.1 rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/ATT) in 2021, ranked 39th. His efficiency in the passing game has been equally disappointing. Gibson averages 0.2 scrimmage yards over expected per attempt (SYOE/ATT), surprisingly low for a former college WR
It is worth noting that Gibson has been dealing with stress fractures in his shin the entire season, causing his usage to be unpredictable and his efficiency to suffer dramatically. I do not expect a heroic leap in efficiency or production for Gibson against the stout Panthers run defense.
Matt Ward
WR: Tyler Boyd - Cincinnati Bengals
It’s blatantly obvious that the emergence of Tee Higgins and Ja’Mar Chase is becoming too much for Tyler Boyd’s fantasy value to handle, as he’s been a hard player for fantasy managers to rely on this season.
Leave Tyler Boyd out of your starting lineups this week, especially if you have a different bench piece who you’re feeling more confident in, like Cole Beasley.
While the target share for Boyd hasn’t been watered down, his fantasy production has been. The only games where he has returned a quality fantasy performance for managers has been in games where he sees unsustainable usage. For example, three of his four double-digit performances in half PPR this season were games where he saw eight, nine and 11 targets respectively.
It seems like Tyler Boyd is a very unreliable fantasy wide receiver for managers, unless he receives an above-average amount of attention from Joe Burrow, which shouldn’t be expected against the suprisingly good Raiders pass defense.
It may be shocking, but the Raiders have been a challenging matchup for opposing WR fantasy production, ranking a bottom-10 matchup in POA. This makes this matchup much less ideal for Boyd and when paired with the inconsistency of his targets per game,
Look elsewhere for a player to plug into your lineup this week.
Boyd Armstrong / @Boyds
TE: T.J. Hockenson - Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson is currently the TE7 on the year in half-ppr formats, which is solid on the surface. The issue with being TE7 on the year is that it only equates to an average of 9.2 fantasy points per game.
Many correctly predicted that Hockenson would have a solid target share due to lack of competition on a very barren Lions roster, but very few understood that targets are not all it takes for success.
Even though he is fifth in targets among eligible tight ends, he has an abysmal aDOT of 6.8 yards. As a product has only eclipsed 15 or more half-ppr points twice (Weeks 1 and 2). The most significant issue with Hockenson is the person throwing him the ball.
Jared Goff is currently the 31st ranked QB in TTV, meaning his targets are some of the worst targets for fantasy production in the entire league. When your quarterback is throwing low-value footballs, the pass catchers will unfortunately end up with low-value receptions.
Hockenson has had rollercoaster performances all year with five finishes within the top-12 TEs alongside four finishes outside of the top-20. Three of those four finishes were outside of the top-34, including a whopping zero last week (on one target). Things have not been looking stellar regarding a Hockenson breakout year, and they certainly are not improving this week.
This week the Lions are facing off against the Browns. The Browns are currently allowing only 9.9 fantasy points per game to the TE position weekly with a -15.4% POA, the 8th least favorable matchup for TEs.
The final straw here is that Tim Boyle will be the Lions starting quarterback this week. Boyle has been on injured reserve with a finger injury all year and has never made a start at QB in his entire NFL career. In fact, he has only completed three passes on four attempts for 15 yards in the three years he’s been in the league. It felt like it couldn’t get much worse for Lions fans with Goff but they may have found a way to do it with Boyle this week.
Only time will tell, but if the waiver wire has viable options like Cole Kmet or Tyler Conklin, consider pivoting from Hockenson this week.
Nick Beaulieu
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.