Welcome to the BRoto Weekly DFS article! Here we are going to identify some of our favorite plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games!! Hope you all had a good week last week, I had a strong cash game day but bottomed-out in GPP’s. Let’s try to have another #printfest for week 10!
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Games to Target:
ATL @ DAL O/U- 54.5
Implied totals: ATL: 22.75. DAL: 31.75
MIN @ LAC O/U- 53
Implied totals: MIN: 25.25, LAC: 27.75
TB @ WFT O/U- 51.5
Implied totals: TB: 30.25, WFT: 21.25
Top Plays GPP:
QB: Some of these plays may overlap with cash and are obvious plays for me this week: Dak $8100 FD, Tom Brady $8300 FD.
QB: Kirk Cousins ($7600 FD):
Sporting News
With a team implied total of 25.25 points, Kirk is certainly in play. Kirk will also give you nice leverage off whatever RB the Vikings play (potential Cook legal problems).
QB: Tannehill ($7400 FD): TEN’s team implied total of 23.75 isn’t the highest of the slate, but I expect Tannehill to have to shoulder more of the offensive load. He has 5 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs in his past four games and I expect a little more volume with King Henry on the shelf. Tannehill has had 15 or more FD points the past three weeks. Now that is not the highest bar, but there is a strong ceiling here.
RB: Tony Pollard ($6500 FD): I absolutely love this GPP play this week. Based on some early projections, the DAL passing offense is expected to be heavily rostered AND Zeke is slightly banged up. Enter Tony Pollard.
RB: Cordarelle Patterson ($7800 FD): C-Patt is the ATL offense. It is really as simple as that. Don’t get me wrong, Kyle Pitts has been awesome as a rookie, but C-Patt is going off. He has had no less than 5 targets in his last 5 games and has 9 or more rushes in his past 4 games. In a game where I expect the DAL offense to get back on track, Patterson will need to be utilized heavy to compete with DAL.
WR: Jerry Jeudy ($6200 FD): The story last week was Tim Patrick not going away and catching a long TD, but underneath the surface, Jerry Jeudy led the team in targets (8). The Denver Post also released a recent article about how the Broncos want to get Jeudy more involved. The signs are all pointing in the right direction for Jeudy. The Eagles may also seem like a tough matchup on the surface, but a Keenan Allen-esque Week 9 game against Philly is certainly a possible outcome for Jeudy (13/12/104).
WR: Elijah Moore ($5700 FD): Don’t look now, but Moore has had 6 or more targets in his last three games. He has also accumulated 3 total TDs in the last three weeks. Moore has had target shares of 14.3%, 12.2%, and 15.4% the past three weeks after being an offensive afterthought earlier in the season. Moore is an intriguing play this week and he may be a nice redraft option if he can continue to force his way onto the field, despite the return of Corey Davis.
TE: Dalton Schultz ($6000 FD): Dallas was awful last week, yet Schultz still managed a decent game with a 4/54 stat line. He’s had 5 or more targets in every game this year except one. Schultz will also provide direct leverage of the chalky Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb this week.
TE: Jared Cook ($5200 FD): This play is very similar to the Schultz play. I expect the LAC passing attack to be very popular this week and Cook provides leverage against both Allen and Big Mike. Cook has accumulated 4 or more targets in 4 of his last 5 games and is a red zone favorite for Herbert. TDs are king for the TE position.
TE: Adam Trautman ($4700 FD): Everyone’s favorite preseason TE sleeper has been nothing short of disappointing this season, but he might be finally turning the corner. Trautman has seen 13 total targets the last two games. He’s also increased his target share the past three weeks from 8.6% to 15.4% to 16.3%. This is a deep play, but if you want to punt TE in GPPs, Trautman is a great option.
D/ST: TEN D/ST ($4100 FD): If you read Broto’s buy/sell for week 9, then you know how much I love this Titans defense. I certainly didn’t expect them to completely shut-down the Rams, but the fact remains, they force turnovers! They are 7th in pressure rate per pro football reference. They are 1st in total pressures at 108 (9 more than the next closest team), tied for 4th in sacks, 10th in hurry rate and 4th in total hurries. And now they get a home matchup against Trevor Siemian?! Sign. Me. Up.
Top Cash Fades:
QB: Jalen Hurts ($7700 FD):
Jalen Hurts has fallen off a bit as has accumulated just 27.9 FD points the past two weeks. The good news, he’s still getting rushing work, totaling 133 yards on 17 carries. The bad news, his TDs have dwindled and the passing game is an afterthought. Hurts has just 1 TD over the past two games and combined for 265 total passing yards. Maybe that changes with a matchup vs. Denver in which the Eagles might have to play from behind, but I would rather gamble on lower-priced options such as Cousins, Wentz and Tannehill or pay up for Herbert or Brady.
RB: Leonard Fournette ($7400 FD): Don’t get me wrong, Fournette has been great this year, this just isn’t the matchup to target. Even after the BYE week, the WFT still ranks top 6 in passing yards allowed and 2nd in passing TDs allowed per pro football reference. They are also top 5 in Points Over Average (BRoto Exclusive) to opposing QBs and WRs. Why fight WFT on the ground when they are beatable through the air and Tom Brady is at QB? The WFT still ranks 1st in total air yards allowed at 1508 (the next closest team is 1398) and 3rd in air yards per attempt at 8.6.
*Fournette does make a nice GPP play as leverage on the Bucs passing game, especially if he catches a TD, but not a recommended cash play*
WR: Davante Adams ($8700 FD*): *Only if Rodgers is out.* Far too risky of a play at that price point with Jordan Love under center.
WR: Amari Cooper ($7300 FD): We can probably throw last week out as an outlier for the entire DAL offense, but disappointing Amari Cooper games are becoming a fairly common occurrence, as he has four games this season under 10 FD points. There are better options at his price point.
TE: Jared Cook ($5200 FD): I noted Cook as a strong GPP option above, but mainly as a low rostered play with TD potential. For cash games, I would look the other way.
D/ST: (BUF D/ST $5000 FD): The matchup is great, but as I always say, I hate paying up for a D/ST. The BUF defense makes for a better GPP play but I just can’t get there in cash, even with a good matchup.
Top Plays Cash:
QB:
High priced - Josh Allen ($8700 FD):
Josh Allen flopped badly last week. So, the question is, do you feel lucky punk? Do ya? Allen could be in for a huge bounce back performance against the anemic Jets Defense.
Mid-low priced - Justin Herbert ($8000 FD): This LAC vs MIN should be a shootout. Currently the O/U is at 53. Again, Min lost their best pass rusher Danielle Hunter two weeks ago. Herbert has been up and down this season but has thrown 2 or more TDs in 4 of his last 5 games and has 2 rushing TD’s over that 5 week time span. Plus, we know how boom his boom games can be.
Tom Brady ($8300 FD): The WFT defense is back (check back in the fade section for more details). Brady should pop-off this game. He has 15 TD passes over his last 4 games and has thrown for over 250 yards in 4 of his last 5, including a 411 yard and 375 yard outing. Plus the Bucs are coming off a bye. Trust in Brady.
RB: Najee Harris ($9400 FD): Fortunately, Najee’s play is better than his Spanish (check out his interview with ESPN deportes after Monday night’s win, it was very entertaining). Najee is getting massive volume with 20+ carries in each of his last 4 games. He has also had 3 or more targets in each of his last 5 games. Najee now gets the Lions who rank as the 2nd best matchup for RBs in Points Over Average.
RB: James Conner ($7000 FD): The matchup isn’t the best, but Conner is the best value play this week. He is going to get excellent volume in an offense that scores points, regardless of who is starting at QB. Conner also showed off his receiving prowess with 5/77 last week.
Jonathan Taylor ($9400 FD): Jonathan Taylor has been an absolute animal. He smashed for 172 yards rushing last week and is even getting some passing work lately (2 or more targets in 4 of his last 5 games). Taylor has also had 100+ rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 games. RB1.
WR: Jerry Jeudy ($6200 FD): See above. I am all about Jeudy this week.
WR: Mike Evans ($7400 FD): Another week with potentially no Gronk, no AB and now, no Godwin. Evans should feast if those players are out.
WR: Terry McLaurin ($7100 FD): Hopefully the week off helped McLaurin with his previous injury (hamstring). If healthy, Terry is a monster. He has had 7 or more targets in his last 5 games including 3 of his last 5 games with 10+ targets. He somehow only has 4 TD’s on the season, so he is due for regression. Tampa bay is allowing 27.6 points to WRs, and in a matchup with two below-average defenses, I expect Terry to terrorize the Bucs secondary.
TE: Dalton Schultz ($6000 FD): See GPP section.
TE: Pat Freiermuth ($5100 FD): Pat Freiermuth has been eating lately. He has 6 or more targets in his last 3 games and 3 TD’s in his last two games. He has really come on since Juju went down and now Claypool is out too. Freiermuth is a strong cheap play.
TE: Goedert ($5900 FD), Dan Arnold ($5100 FD), and Tyler Conklin ($5300 FD) all are strong cash plays as well this week.
D/ST: TEN D/ST ($4100 FD): See GPP section.
Lone-Ranger Plays:
Deonte Harris ($5400 FD):
Harris is cheap and Kamara is now likely out. Harris has quietly garnered 15 targets over the last two games and is always a threat to take one to the house.
Final thoughts:
Love Bucs onslaught stacks for GPPs and WFT has 1 decent bring-back for a game stack.
Everyone will be paying up for RB this week so going low cost at RB will be a nice way to differentiate in GPPs.
Best of luck in week 9, go get that money!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.