We had ourselves quite the week last week! The Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans all covered and won their matchups, making us three for three on the traditional lines!
If it was not for yet another overtime field goal by Justin Tucker, we would have cashed out on a a huge parlay as well, with the Cleveland Browns and the Titans both toppling the odds, leaving just the Minnesota Vikings coming up short. In a week where underdogs went over .500, this is a result to be pleased with!
Duane Burleson | Credit: AP
As is the nature of sports betting, our “safe” parlay was a swing and a miss, with both the Dallas Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills failing to show up on Sunday. However, in betting, when you win more than you lose, you’re always happy! That’s why they say, “any given Sunday”. Speaking of any Sunday, how about this Sunday? Let’s keep rolling!
We are going to start with the fun stuff this week.
Parlay +2292
Browns ML +102 (@ Patriots)
*Eagles ML +128 (@ Broncos)
*Raiders ML +122 (vs Chiefs)
Vikings ML +134 (@ Chargers)
Feeling dangerous, I have attached four legs to this week's parlay instead of three. You may be asking: Hitting a three-legged parlay is hard enough, so why add a fourth? Well, all four of these matchups have massive potential, but none necessarily stand out more than the others. The recommendation here is to take all four with a small wager, and then make a combination (or several combinations) of two or three with more confidence. They are listed top to bottom in order of confidence. As always, feel free to sub the spread in for an underdog for a little more safety. Have some fun with it!
Browns - The Browns are being disrespected by the bookmakers for the second week in a row, being listed again as underdogs in a matchup they deserve to be favored. After handling the Cincinnati Bengals comfortably last week, Cleveland heads to New England to take on Bill Belichick and the Pats. The Patriots are on a roll but the Browns have a great chance to prevail.
Eagles- The Eagles have hung in some tough games all season long and have beaten up on some bad teams. Their upcoming matchup against the Denver Broncos could be a little bit of both, as Denver has looked great at times and terrible at others this season. Without Von Miller, the Eagles may be able to move the ball and sneak out a win.
Raiders - The Chiefs are in shambles. They look horrendous on both sides of the ball. We also know that the Raiders have had their number for years, and this Chiefs squad is one of the worst ATS teams in recent memory (2-7 this season, only better than WFT). At only 2.5-point favorites, this one is in reach for LV.
Vikings - Despite breaking my heart last week, the Vikings have found their way back into the parlay. Although 3-5, Minnesota managed to extend their streak of losing by one score or less again last week and have yet to lose by more than a score. The Vikings are only 3-point dogs to the Chargers, who have struggled to win by more than a score as of late, so this should be a close one. One score games are notoriously a non-sticky stat, and the Vikings are due for one to fall in their favor.
Now onto the traditional lines!
Dallas Cowboys -9 vs. Atlanta Falcons (-110) *
Dallas had an uncharacteristically awful performance against the Broncos this past Sunday. Sometimes with good teams, you throw the bad ones away. That is exactly what should be done here. The Falcons played uncharacteristically well last week as well, and it is not typically wise to expect a repeat performance from the Falcons. At 7-1 ATS, take Dallas with confidence until further notice.
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs Seattle Seahawks (-110)
Green Bay managed to cover against the Chiefs last week despite being without reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are 8-1 ATS this season, and if we throw out their abysmal Week 1 performance, they’re undefeated. At this point, it is wise to take the Packers spread basically every week until the trend ceases. This one is a lock, unless Rodgers does not return to the field this week.
Tennessee Titans -3 vs New Orleans Saints (-110)
Despite a slow start for the defense, the loss of Derrick Henry, and the underperformance of Julio Jones, the Titans are 7-2 both ATS and in wins and losses. This is one of the best teams in the NFL and it is time that they be viewed as such. A home game against the Trevor Siemien led Saints (might be Taysom Hill but it’ll be his first start of the season if so) after an absolute pummeling of the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Fooball is a perfect time to keep riding the Titans train. Take this one with confidence!
*SYSTEM ALERT
I learned about a system this week that is currently 39-14-1 this season and went 7-0 last week. The system is as such: Any team that did NOT cover last week, matched up against a team that DID cover last week, should be bet on. The team that did not cover the week prior is 39-14-1 against the spread on the season so far. A 100 bettor would be up $2,273 on the season following this system. At first glance I was not super drawn to some of the lines this week, but it is worth monitoring for sure. Here are the lines for this week:
*Cowboys -9 vs Falcons
*Raiders +2.5 vs Chiefs
*Eagles +2.5 @ Broncos
Saints +3 @ Titans
Panthers +10.5 @ Cardinals
Ravens -7.5 @ Dolphins
Happy betting!
By Mike “Schiz” Schissel (@michaelschissel)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.