Sleepers
QB: Derek Carr - Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Review-Journal
Derek Carr and the Raiders play host to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10. Carr is coming off a disappointing performance that saw him cough up three turnovers to the New York Giants. The sweet start to his 2021 season has lost some of its flavor, but Carr is still producing at a high level.
Carr is averaging 320.6 passing yards per game. He ranks fourth in completed air yards, with a top ten deep ball completion percentage at 42.9%. Lack of touchdown production has kept Carr from producing at the QB1 level. Fortunately, he has an excellent high-scoring game script on tap this week. The Chiefs are allowing 25.2 points a game to their opponents in 2021, tied for 7th worst in the NFL.
The Chiefs defense is running high with bravado after shutting down second-year Packers quarterback Jordan Love's first career start. There is no sugar coating the disastrous holes the Chiefs have in their secondary. I am not weighing this prior contest as a trend of things to come.
FanDuel has the over/under set at 51.5, with the Raiders as slight underdogs at 2.5 to cover. The Chiefs have struggled on both sides of the ball this year but I am anticipating a get-right game against the Raiders.
Carr should have plenty of opportunities to sling the rock with an increased chance for scoring opportunities in a high-paced affair.
Matt Ward
RB: J.D. McKissic - Washington Football Team
The Washington vs. Tampa Bay game has the odd smell of a quality J.D. McKissic fantasy performance all over it, whether we like it or not. It is safe to say that the Washington Football team will be trailing in this one, which means they are going to have to let Taylor Heinicke sling the rock to try and catch up against the reigning Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers.
Through nine weeks of the season, McKissic is sitting as the RB24 in half PPR leagues, only one spot lower than his fellow backfield mate, Antonio Gibson, who is the RB23 in the same format. In fact, McKissic has outscored Gibson in all three of their last three games, by a healthy margin in each one.
A big reason for this is because McKissic has been the back used in pass catching situations, and he’s been earning a healthy number of targets.
McKissic ranks near the top of the charts in several receiving stats for running backs. He currently sits with the 7th most targets for a running back this season and has produced 332 receiving yards, which is the 3rd most for his position.
McKissic clearly has a very valuable role within this Washington offense and I fully expect him to capitalize on his opportunity yet again. Washington should be trailing for most of the game and McKissic should see some important targets going his way. I’m plugging him into multiple lineups of mine this week, and you should too.
Boyd Armstrong
WR: Jamal Agnew - Jacksonville Jaguars
Nothing says “2021” like choosing Jamal Agnew as a fantasy sleeper. This football season has taken some serious twists and turns, and, as a result, this may be one of the weirdest claims yet, but the numbers speak for themselves.
Since D.J. Chark suffered a season-ending injury in Week four, the once return specialist, Jamal Agnew, has stepped into a new role on the Jaguars roster - WR1.
Since Week 5, Agnew has led the team in targets, catches, receiving yards, and is tied for first in touchdowns. Currently third in snaps among wide receivers in that time frame (63%), there is still room for his role to grow. Nobody would have expected someone with the number 39 to be carrying the load for the Jaguars offense, but here we are.
This week, the Jaguars face off against the Indianapolis Colts, a divisional matchup that is made in heaven for the Jags receiving corps. The Colts are currently allowing a whopping 36.6 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position while allowing an average of 26% more fantasy points over average (POA) per wideout.
Although Jamal Agnew has not lit up the fantasy world just yet, he has been a solid producer for fantasy teams and I am salivating at this week’s matchup. He is a locked and loaded WR3 this week with WR2 upside due to his solid playmaking ability. If managers get credit for individual points on special teams’ TDs or even return yards, Agnew carries insane value and could luck managers into a massive day.
Nick Beaulieu
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones - Washington Football Team
The late emergence of RSJ has been fun to witness, and we are lucky enough to get at least one more game of the saga. Seals-Jones is coming off a rough performance followed by a bye week, dropping his rostership to 14% in Yahoo and 21% in Sleeper, making him a prime candidate to stream this week.
The WFT will face off against a Buccaneers team that ranks 12th in points allowed over average (POA) to the TE, not a stellar matchup but we've seen RSJ put up decent numbers against much tougher defenses. His past four games have gone as follows: TE14, TE6, TE10, TE37
The dreadful TE37 performance happened against Denver, who are ranked dead-last in POA and the mediocre TE14 game came against the 29th ranked Saints.
Ricky Seals-Jones has played 100% of snaps in games without Logan Thomas. Take advantage of his usage in a plus matchup one last time.
Santiago Casanova
Busts
QB: Kirk Cousins - Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10 as 3.0-point underdogs. Kirk Cousins has simply not been producing at a high enough level to trust him against one of the league's premier defenses.
You can better understand how defenses perform against individual positions with BRoto’s exclusive stat, Points Allowed Over Average. The Los Angeles Chargers defense are conceding just 15.0 FPTS a game to quarterbacks in 2021, -17.7% below average to the position. They are equally stingy at covering the wide receiver position, allowing a lowly 19.4 combined points to the position.
Cousins has teetered around the QB1 tier all season with volatile lows and unpredictable highs. He has finished as a top-five quarterback in fantasy only once this season and has had three weeks outside of QB1 and as low as QB28 overall.
Expect another low-end QB2 performance from Cousins this week. Unless you are in leagues that start two quarterbacks, Cousins is best left on the bench against the Chargers.
Matthew Ward
RB: Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team
As a fantasy manager who rosters Antonio Gibson, this year has been one rocky road. The talent and potential are so clearly there, but unfortunately, the nagging shin injury has been a constant issue, and his usage on the field has not been ideal for fantasy purposes.
When we look at the Washington Football Team’s next matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the obvious player to be afraid of is the one-man wrecking crew Vita Vea, but that entire Tampa defensive line has been incredible this season.
The Buccaneers defense has been one of the toughest matchups for opposing fantasy backs. Through the first nine weeks of the season, the Buccaneers have only allowed one running back to score double digit fantasy points against them, and that was Alvin Kamara. The signs are written in the stars and one of the safest things you can do for your fantasy team this week is to bench Washington’s lead rusher against the terrifying Tampa defense.
Not only is the matchup incredibly difficult, but I have serious doubts about exactly how healthy Gibson is when he heads into this matchup. Expect his overall snap percentage to be similar to his past three games where he averaged 30-40% of snaps.
This number of snaps doesn’t necessarily kill his fantasy value for this week but it makes him incredibly touchdown dependent considering how little action he has been receiving in the passing game. If you have a different RB2 option you could pivot to this week, I recommend that you do.
Boyd Armstrong
WR: Christian Kirk - Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals offense is a lot messier than it looks on the surface.
They played a hell of a game last week versus the San Francisco 49ers, but that product is unsustainable. Perennial backup Colt McCoy went 22/26 passing for 249 yards with a touchdown, while posting the most rushing yards (23) for a Cardinals QB since Week 4. James Conner accounted for 173 total yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs.
Christian Kirk also caught a team-high six catches on six targets for 91 yards. The thing though, is that he was the de-facto WR1 last week with both A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins out. All these factors combined are very unlikely to happen again, and certainly not this week.
It is once again shaping up like Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are game-time decisions but trending closer to being inactive. However, A.J. Green has been cleared of COVID-19 and is expected to return this week. While he is not the target hog and receiving threat he once was, he will still be taking opportunities away from Kirk.
What worries me the most this week is their matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who have been elite fantasy dampeners through the first nine weeks of the season. They are demolishing opposing wide receivers right now, allowing only 23.4 PPG to the position while allowing -16.1% Points Over Average (POA) to wide receivers they have faced.
I also don’t think it matters which QB is at the helm this week. The options are either a clearly hobbled Murray or his average backup Colt McCoy. While Murray is probably preferred in this scenario, Murray’s production took a major toll while playing through injury last season. I am out on Christian Kirk this week.
Nick Beaulieu
TE: Dallas Goedert - Philadelphia Eagles
If you read my sleeper portion above, you know that the Denver Broncos defense ranks dead last in points allowed over average to TEs with -49.6%. This means that, on average, when TEs face off against the Broncos, they score half the points that they have scored against different teams. This is far from ideal, especially for a volatile position such as TE.
Goedert's usage has been great since the departure of Zach Ertz and the fact that he has produced without touchdowns is quite a feat. However, this Broncos defense has held elite TEs like Mark Andrews and Darren Waller (who average 12-13 points) to less than nine half PPR points. A guy like Goedert that averages about eight and a half points per game is in for a challenge
I'd recommend avoiding Goedert if possible and streaming a TE with a better matchup like Ricky Seals-Jones instead.
Santiago Casanova
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.