Week 6 was a rollercoaster. The Chargers didn’t show up, which was hugely disappointing, and the stars just did not align for an offensive battle between KC and Washington. Nonetheless, Arizona showed out with total dominance over Cleveland and Dallas took care of business in overtime to cover the spread, leaving us even for the week. There’s an old saying in sports betting: Breaking even is a win—at that point it’s just free entertainment. Let’s bounce back this week and win some money!
Titans +4.5 vs. Chiefs
Titans Wire, USA Today
The Tennessee Titans finally came to play last week, beating the team that many consider to be the best in the NFL: the Buffalo Bills. Derrick Henry currently leads the entire NFL in rushing and would still be the RB1 even without his passing game work. With 10 rushing TD’s already on the season, he is basically a lock to find the endzone every week. Ryan Tannehill had a decent performance and supported the mini-breakout of star wideout AJ Brown for this 2021 campaign. Going against a Kansas City defense that can’t stop much, I foresee this offense having their way on Sunday afternoon. We know how bad KC was against the spread last season, and at 2-4 ATS for 2021, I have no qualms going against them to cover.
Buccaneers -11.5 vs Bears
Tampa Bay’s offense, despite injury struggles, has been one of the more formidable offenses in the league. The Bears offense has not. With the Chicago RB room decimated by injuries, they will have to rely on Justin Fields to get it done through the air—something I do not see him as capable of despite an excellent matchup against the TB secondary. The Bucs' front 7 on defense might just be the best unit in football and I believe they will wreak havoc for Fields and company. Expect them to keep the Chicago offense off the field and for Tom Brady to move the ball at will. A two score cover feels easy and you should take it with confidence.
Packers -7.5 vs. WFT
Aside from the anomaly Week 1 embarrassment, the Packers are easily a top 5 team in the NFL. The WFT defense, despite off-season hype, has been awful and I expect Aaron Rodgers to take full advantage. On the other sideline, Taylor Heinicke has had back to back rough performances against what should have been plus matchups, and unless he can come out hot from the start, I do not see Washington hanging on for very long in this one. Although all are expected to play, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Ricky Seals-Jones have all been questionable/limited in practice at some point this week. I have a hard time expecting WFT to compete with this juggernaut Green Bay offense even at full strength, let alone limited by injuries. Packers -7.5 is the play.
BONUS: WR Davante Adams is due for positive TD regression as his 700+ receiving yards have yielded only 2 scores. Parlay the spread with Adams anytime TD scorer for +165 odds.
Saints @ Seahawks o42.5
Gunslinging QB Jameis Winston is going to have a blast this week, as the Seattle secondary has been anything but formidable. MNF games have been electric all year and with an o/u as low as 42.5, it is hard not to take the over. The fact that Geno Smith will be starting for Seattle is a little worrisome but he’s shown flashes of a decent rapport with DK Metcalf up to this point and I expect that Seattle will be able to move the ball well enough at home to put up some points. I like the Saints to win this game and score plenty, meaning Seattle only needs to score a couple times to put us in the ballpark. This is my least confident of the 4 lines this week, but I still feel good enough to bet it moderately. Always fun to bet on primetime games, especially when it's an over. Take it and enjoy!
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By Michael “Schiz” Shissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.