In order to get to the truth of Fantasy Football, the BRoto team has been coming up with exclusive stats to help you find the truth behind the traditional stats that may be steering you in the wrong direction. The latest stat, straight from the brilliant mind of BRoto’s Lead Data Analyst Santiago Casanova, looks at the percentage of fantasy points allowed over average by defenses to a position. However, instead of comparing it to just the league average, it compares the average points particular players scored against other defenses. Or as Casanova puts it, “If the Jets gave up 20 points to player X when player X’s average all season was 15, the Jets are 33% softer than average against that position.” (You can download the app and access this stat and more here)
With the arrival of this new stat, there are many things to learn, some misconceptions to uncover, and some diamonds to find. Let’s take a look at each team’s current standing and see where each defense lies during the crucial Week 7 bye-pocalypse.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ defense has been the surprise of the NFL season and the numbers back up their reputation as a top defense. Arizona ranks in the top-5 least Points Over Average (POA) allowed for almost all positions, including absolutely killing the TE, allowing almost 60% fewer points to their opponents than other teams. The one place they have been vulnerable is at WR, allowing guys like KJ Osborn and Van Jefferson to get big games early in the season.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been getting torched every which way, including almost 47% more POA allowed to running backs. Not every position has feasted though as TE’s have struggled to find the matchup advantage against the Falcons linebackers and safeties, including shutting down the prolific TE duo for the Browns.
Baltimore Ravens
After shutting down QB Justin Herbert and WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, the Ravens’ secondary is proving why they are one of the best in the league when healthy. They will face another test this week with the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd catching passes from a red-hot Joe Burrow.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are the best team in football and the numbers prove it. You don’t have to invent a stat to know the Bills defense has been shut down so far in 2021, but it does reveal just how truly dominant they have been, ranking as a bottom-3 matchup at every position.
Carolina Panthers
Since Matt Rhule has taken over at HC, the Panthers have invested a lot in the defensive line and it has paid off. They are the hardest matchup for RBs in the league, allowing -35.2% POA to opposing RBs at only 13.5 FPPG. On the flip said, despite giving up just the 15th most points in the league to QBs and the 18th most to TE’s, those matchups have outperformed their expectations against the Panthers to the tune of a top-8 matchup at each position.
Chicago Bears
The rumors that the Bears are no longer a dominant defense you should fear for your fantasy players should be out to bed right now. Despite ranking 20th in time of possession with a rookie QB leading the dead-last ranked offense in the NFL, the Bears have constantly held most positions under expectation in 2021. They have been particularly good against the RB, allowing -25.2% POA, the third-worst matchups for RBs in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals
Although the Bengals have allowed just 15.5 FPPG to the QB (5th least) they have actually given up more 4.7% more fantasy points to the QB than should be expected. Games against the Bears, Lions, Steelers, and Jaguars shine a brighter light on their overall number. This is a clear example of the usefulness of POA.
Cleveland Browns
How is it that a team can allow so many POA to the QB, but be above average against almost every position? The answer is that the Browns have been vulnerable to QB rushing TDs, allowing the second-most (3) TDs to QBs in the NFL...and they haven’t even faced division rival QB Lamar Jackson yet.
Dallas Cowboys
Despite being much improved in real life, the Cowboys have been a slightly favorable matchup for every position they have played this season. They have been particularly vulnerable to the WR. Despite an amazing individual season by second-year CB Trevon Diggs, Dallas has allowed 14.5% POA, the 9th best matchup for opposing wideouts.
Denver Broncos
After getting torched on the ground by D’Ernest Johnson and the Browns, it’s easy to dismiss the Broncos’ defense as a product of their schedule, but not so fast. Firstly, Johnson’s performance was more indicative of his great play and the superb play of the Browns’ NFL-best offensive line. The Broncos have been a nightmare matchup for everyone else, ranking as a bottom-7 matchup for QBs, RBs, and TEs.
Detroit Lions
So far, the Lions have been insanely bad against the RB, allowing the most POA in the NFL (58%) to the position. The extra points allowed to the RBs have come at the expense of WRs, as the often-trailing Lions are actually one of the worst matchups in the NFL so far this season, despite a secondary that’s been hurt. This is a product of game script, not skill.
Green Bay Packers
Never really a defense to fear, even when All-Pro CB Jair Alexander was healthy, the Packers have been a favorable matchup for every position so far this season. They have been particularly vulnerable to TE’s, allowing 72% POA, the third-best matchup in the league, despite giving up just the 14th most points. Big games by Juwan Johnson, TJ Hockenson, George Kittle, and a good performance by Cole Kmet are the driving factor behind the number
Houston Texans
Despite starting the year getting demolished by RBs, the Texans have actually been just a middle-of-the-pack matchup for the position. The real place to look is at TE, where the Texans have allowed 60.3% POA to the tune of nearly 16 FPPG. New Cardinals TE Zach Ertz may find fitting in with his new team (who play the Texans Week 7), a little easier when facing Houston. The Texans have surrendered five TDs to TEs in 6 games, tied for worst in the league.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have stars like DT Deforest Buckner and LB Darius Leonard on the front seven and it shows. The Colts have been killers against the opposing RBs, allowing -26% POA, the third-worst match-up in fantasy. They have really struggled everywhere else though, particularly in the secondary where QBs, WRs, and TEs all enjoy a top-10 matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Do not adjust your screen, the Jaguars defense is actually that bad. Where they are comically bad however is against the TE, where Jacksonville is allowing their matchups to score a whopping 135% POA, over 60% higher than the number 2 team (Rams). Every year there is that one team that makes streaming a TE almost always a success, Jacksonville looks like that team this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
For this takeaway, I am going to quote the creator of this fine stat himself, which he posted on Twitter (@BRotoFFCasanova): “The chiefs rank second in points allowed to the QB but only 13th in points over average. So far this season, they have faced Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts in 2/3rds of their games. Gotta adjust for context.”
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ secondary has been everything it was advertised to be, and so is the running defense, one that has been vulnerable by design for the last few seasons. The Rams “bend but don’t beak defense has one major flaw in it though, the TE. Above-player-average performances by Jack Doyle, Cole Kmet, Cameron Brate, and Maxx Williams, as well as a very good performance by Rob Gronkowski, reveal the Rams have been a great streaming target all year for the TE. Naturally, the only TE who could not capitalize on this matchup so far was Giants TE Evan Engram in week 6.
Los Angeles Chargers
New HC Brandon Staley is keeping the same theme he established with the Rams, using DB Derwin James in a similar role he used CB Jalen Ramsey, and getting similar results. Los Angeles has been a bottom-3 matchup for opposing QBs and WR’s, including a league-best -34% POA to wideouts. Running backs and TE’s have gotten theirs though. They are the 11th and 10th best matchups for opponents respectively.
Las Vegas Raiders
Similar to the Bengals, the Raiders have not given up many points to the QB, but have given up 3.4% more POA to the position. Seven touchdowns in six games (5 rushing, 2 receiving) have caused Las Vegas to surrender 26.5% POA to the RB position. When you share a division with Travis Kelce, Noah Fant, and Jared Cook, its easy to blame poor performances by TEs on the Raiders schedule, but with a 61.2% POA, good for 5th worst in the league, the Raiders are a plus matchup for any TE, not just the elite ones.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins’ overall numbers look bad in the generic version of FPPG allowed and it only gets worse when adjusting for opponents. The highlight comes from the RB position where a 37.4% POA makes Miami the third-best running back matchup for fantasy.
Minnesota Vikings
COVID opt-outs, injuries, and under-performing players caused the Mike Zimmer-lead Vikings defense to be uncharacteristically bad in 2020. However, they have rebounded well in 2021, proving to be a negative matchup to almost every position.
New England Patriots
The Patriots continue to be middle-of-the-pack in almost every possible stat in the NFL, and this one is no different. A matchup with the Patriots is never exciting, but it also isn’t a team to avoid like in the glory years.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints defense has been an absolute nightmare matchup for QBs, RBs, and TEs this season, ranking towards the bottom in overall points allowed and still giving up negative POA. Breakout days by John Ross, Kadarius Toney, and a 116-yard performance by the oft-injured Kenny Golladay are part of the reason the Saints have surrendered almost 20% POA to WRs so far this season. With three outliers all getting well over their personal season averages in the same game, the data here is a bit skewed. I expect this number to drop as the season goes forward.
New York Giants
Coming into the season, the Giants boasted one of the most overrated defenses in football, and so far, the numbers support that theory. The Giants have been a favorable matchup for each position, including a top-10 matchup for RBs and a top-5 matchup for WRs.
New York Jets
Many factors have played into the Jets’ run defense being such a great matchup for RBs. Pre-season injuries to big free agent signings, Zach Wilson’s rookie interceptions, and the 31st ranked offense in the NFL all create excellent game scripts for opposing running backs. Similar to Detriot, this has made it unnecessary for QBs and WRs to do much, but the best-kept secret in the NFL, CB Bryce Hall, has also been a factor.
Philadelphia Eagles
See: Lions and Jets. Don’t be fooled by Jalen Hurts fantasy production, the offense has been impossible to watch, leading to favorable game scripts for RBs. Game script is also playing a key role in the Eagles’ second-best ranking against the QB and WR.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been one of the best overall defenses in the league this year and it shows in the POA data. Although their secondary is not as bad as it was last season, WRs are getting the advantage over the Steelers corners, but their stout run defense is allowing -20.6% POA, leading the charge.
Seattle Seahawks
TE’s against Seattle have been a NICE matchup, coming in at 69% POA allowed to TEs on the strength of S Jamal Adams’ lack of coverage skills. However, that’s not the only place Seattle has struggled. The Seahawks have been a positive matchup for every position this season, numbers that should only get better for opponents, particularly running backs, with game scripts vs. Geno Smith certain to look better than ones against Russell Wilson.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers came into the season with a lot of turnover in the secondary and it is showing. Add on injuries and what you get is QBs scoring the seventh most POA at nearly 20%. One position that is not having any success, however, is TE, due to the incredible coverage skills by Fred Warner. Last season, Warner allowed the lowest QB rating of any defender in coverage, and this season, TEs are scoring -27.3% POA.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers pass defense is as bad as advertised, allowing top-10 matchups to QBs and WRs while allowing 11.5% POA against TEs too. However, their rush defense is even better than we thought. The Bucs’ 7th best -10% POA is tough on any RB group.
Tennessee Titans
When you are in Tennessee, you eat. Whether you are hungry for BBQ or Fantasy Points, when you enter Tennessee, you don’t leave hungry, particularly if you are starting QBs and TE. The Titans are the best matchup for both positions so far this season, allowing over 34% POA to both positions. Might week 7 actually be Mecole Hardman week? Also, pick up Patrick Mahomes as a streamer this week if he is available on your waiver wire ;)
Washington Football Team
What is this team’s name? A team has no name. And this no-named team is getting beat like a blind Arya Stark trying to fight off a faceless woman in an ally with a stick. Okay, I am done with the Game of Thrones references for now, but if there was an iron throne (sorry, had to get one more in there) for the biggest defensive bust, Washington would take the cake. They are a top-10 matchup for QBs, RBs, and WRs, including the 2nd highest POA for throwers and wideouts. TEs are not producing at the same rate, but I chalk that up to so much success around them, rather than their ability to stop the position.
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By Tim Petropoulos (@BRotoFFTim)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.