Sleepers
QB - Tua Tagovailoa
Bye-pocalipse is upon us as 6(!) teams have a bye. This means great fantasy QBs like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and others are out this week so you might need extra help.
One name that inexplicably is still slightly under-rostered is Tua Tagovailoa. Last week, Tua had a very decent QB11 performance, albeit against the Jaguars who are 3rd in points allowed to QBs over average (a metric that looks at how fantasy defenses perform relative to how the players they've faced have fared elsewhere). The Falcons aren't much better, however, as Atlanta currently ranks 6th in that same metric and Tua is only rostered in about 50% of leagues (Yahoo, Sleeper). I would pick up and start Tua over guys like Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, etc. It's Tua time.
Santiago Casanova
RB: J.D. McKissic - Washington Football Team
WFT (2-4) is on the road to face the Packers (5-1) in Week 7. After a 31-13 loss to the Chiefs “Big Three” in the week prior, WFT draws another lethal offensive trio of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones. Vegas betting odds favor the Packers by 7.5 points, meaning WFT will be playing from behind in a pass-friendly game script.
Athlon Sports
J.D. McKissic has earned a reputation as a pass-catching mechanic in the NFL. In 2020 McKissic led all running backs with 110 targets. His usage has slowed down this season but he remains a focal point in WFT’s passing attack. In Week 6, McKissic led the team in receptions (8), targets (10), and receiving yards (65).
McKissic’s usage spike came in part due to the game script and partly due to the injury of fellow running back Antonio Gibson. Neither one of those circumstances has changed going into Week 7. Gibson is expected to once again play through the stress fractures in his shin but will likely be limited. WFT is once again expected to play from behind against an overpowered offense.
Matthew Ward
WR: Tee Higgins - Cincinnati Bengals
In 2-WR leagues, Tee Higgins has been relegated to the bench and, let’s be honest, it’s because he hasn’t produced much lately. I’m not quite ready, however, to throw in the towel. Higgins has 13 total targets over the past two weeks since returning from injury. Moreover, Higgins went 4/62 on 8 targets the only time he played the Ravens with Burrow last year and now, after a slow-ish start for the passing offense, Burrow has exceeded 29 attempts in all but one game., so there is volume there. In a close game, I expect Higgins to have more use-Teams are quickly learning how good Chase is and Burrow is going to have to use other outlets.
Clayton Jones
TE: OJ Howard - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
People often try to over complicate fantasy football. Sometimes, the answers obviously lie right in front of you. This week, it is clear that OJ Howard is the #1 streaming option for those in need of TEs. Tom Brady refuses to age and continues to be in the top-5 of almost all QB stats. The Bucs are an unstoppable offensive machine gushing fantasy points. With Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski out of the game, OJ Howard should see his fair share of work this week. Coming off of a 6-49-1 performance, Howard is set to be top-12 TE for a second straight week.
Jason Petropoulos
Busts
QB: Derek Carr - Oakland Raiders
On the surface, the Eagles don't seem like a terrible matchup. They rank 20th in points allowed to QBs so not great but also not terrible, right?
Well, not quite. When we look at the Eagles' points over average, a new BRoto stat that tells you how good a defense has been against a position relative to how that position has played against others, we see that they actually allow the second-fewest points to QBs.
On average, QBs score 25% fewer points than their season average against the eagles. For Carr, that's ~14 points. Not great.
On the other hand, Philly has been terrible against fantasy RBs (8th in PA) and the Raiders are Vegas favorites. This means that their game plan and game script will, most likely, heavily favor the run. This week is not Derek Carr's week.
Santiago Casanova
RB: Devontae Booker - New York Giants
It’s hard to justify benching any starting running back with a pulse at this point in the season. Injuries have been occurring at a rapid rate in 2021. With six teams on bye in Week 7, the landscape for viable starters is desolate. Unfortunately, things do not look any brighter for managers relying on Devontae Booker to carry them through the “bye-pocalypse.”
The Giants (1-5) are at home against the Panthers (3-3) in a game where both teams are without their starting running backs. Saquon Barkley will miss his second consecutive contest with an ankle injury, giving Booker his second start of the season. Booker’s first start was uninspiring and inefficient. Booker averaged just 3.4 YPC, recording 41 yards on 12 carries with no touchdowns against the Rams in Week 6. Although the Rams are known for their intimidating defense, they have allowed 20.6 FPTS per game to opposing running backs in 2021. Booker's next matchup is much less inviting.
The Panthers are conceding a stifling 13.5 FPTS per game to running backs in 2021. BRoto’s Points Allowed Over Average tool shows us that the Panthers defense has shut down RB fantasy production consistently, regardless of matchup. The Panthers 13.5 FPTS allowed are a staggering -35.2% below the average amount allowed to the position.
If Booker is your only healthy/active option in Week 7, then by all means, roll him out and hope for the best. If you have any other viable starters on your roster, I would consider making the switch.
Matthew Ward
WR: Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks
Per Pro Football Reference, Geno smith has the 5th worst on-target percentage at 70.2%. Smith also ranks 10th worst in percentage of bad throws per pass attempt at 19.1%. Another factor to consider in sitting Lockett is the implied team total this week—Vegas currently have Seattle with a team implied total of 18.75 points. Lastly, Sean Payton will continue feeding Alvin Kamara in this game, draining the clock and limiting Seattle’s offensive opportunities.
Clayton Jones
TE: Zach Ertz - Arizona Cardinals
Man is it weird to type Zach Ertz without “Philadelphia Eagles” attached. The Eagles great is headed to Arizona and the trade has given hope to many that this trade will result in Ertz being a consistent TE1 from here on out. That may come to fruition but I’d wait a week before trusting Ertz. Notoriously poor at gaining yards after the catch, Ertz lacks game-breaking potential and will need to catch a pass in the endzone to put six on the board. An issue with that is that James Conner has been consistently fed within the five-yard line (7 attempts this season) and has scored enough to give the Cardinals confidence in him. Against the Houston Texans, the Cardinals likely will not need to pass too much and, in their spread the ball offense, there may be limited targets to go around. In his first game as a Cardinal, Ertz won’t see more than a handful of targets and will need to find the endzone to pay off. Per my blurb above, I prefer to take a shot on OJ Howard this week.
Jason Petropoulos
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.