Not every superstar in fantasy is matchup proof. Underperforming in week one does not mean managers should hit the panic button. The first game will not make or break your season. However, learning how to optimize your lineups early against difficult matchups can set the tone for success. Defensive matchups matter, folks.
Opening day is closing in faster than Chris Collinsworth can say “Moonball.” With week one just around the corner, I feel it pertinent to highlight the trends that can help you avoid weekly busts. In this Week 1 preview, I take a look at those trends and which superstars may be the most affected on opening day. If you have drafted the players on this list to be your number one option at the position, be wary of their opening day performances.
Justin Herbert QB - Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers hit the road in a Week 1 matchup against the Washington Football Team. A contest that has the Chargers as the slight favorite also ties with the fourth-lowest projected point totals of the week with an o/u betting line of 44.5. When points are hard to come by, the starting quarterbacks' fantasy numbers tend to suffer--nobody is rolling Teddy Bridgewater out as the QB1 in the first week of the fantasy season. People are, however, relying on Justin Herbert to deliver them the first win in their head-to-head matchups. Herbert has the potential to finish the season as a QB1 but does not begin his sophomore campaign with a favorable matchup.
Herbert set the football world on fire as a rookie, en route to breaking multiple rookie quarterback records. The offensive tendencies that led to that success can be ignored as Brandon Staley replaces Anthony Lynn as head coach. Staley has his work cut out for him against the Washington Football Team in his first assignment as the Chargers head coach. Washington’s defensive line is ranked 2nd overall by PFF to begin the 2021 season. The Chargers' offensive line has never played a snap together as a unit, with four of the Chargers' five starting linemen being new additions to the team. Despite their lack of experience as a unit, the Chargers' offensive line currently ranks 18th. This newly minted Chargers offensive unit will have to learn quickly against a defense that accumulated 47 sacks in 2020.
The Chargers do have two star veterans returning to the lineup in 2021, Austin Ekeler and and Keenan Allen. Both, however, are drawing difficult defensive assignments across from them. Washington’s defense ranked 5th in fantasy points allowed to WR in 2020 (33.7) and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs (19.4). The Chargers do not have reliable depth behind these two star offensive weapons. With Washington able to hone in on the Chargers' two top options, Herbert will be forced to throw under heavy pressure while looking for his second and third reads.
Washington allowed only 17.4 fantasy points per game on average to quarterbacks in 2020, ranked 8th in the NFL. Herbert had five games below that mark in his rookie year, two of which came against the bottom-ranked Falcons and Panthers. The other three games came against one of the eight defenses ranked above Washington in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This is all to say that Herbert has yet to establish himself as a matchup immune quarterback in fantasy. Herbert is now learning his second offensive system in as many years and may need a few weeks to return to his rookie of the year form. If you drafted a reliable bye week replacement for Herbert in your fantasy drafts, I would highly consider starting them over Herbert if they have a high-scoring matchup on deck.
Saquon Barkley RB
On the road to open 2021, the New York Giants travel to the mile-high city in a cross-conference matchup against the Denver Broncos. This matchup projects to be a slow burn, with the lowest o/u total of the weekend at just 41.5 combined points. Fantasy points will be few and far between for both teams.
This one is going to be quick. We have yet to see Barkley in action since a catastrophic knee injury ended his 2020 season. The talent Barkley has is undeniable but, after coming off of major reconstructive knee surgery and nearly one year of rehabilitation, I expect Barkley to need more than a few weeks to reach top gear. I still believe Saquon to have league-winning potential for fantasy managers as long as they can withstand the opening matchups while Barkley works back to NFL game speed. Being drafted as the 10th overall player in fantasy in 2021, managers are banking on weekly RB1 production from Saquon. I doubt that production comes in his first week of the season.
The Giants enter the 2021 season with the worst ranked offensive line in the NFL (PFF) and will face off against a top ten defensive line in the Broncos. With Von Miller also returning from injury, this presents a recipe for disaster for every member of the Giants backfield. Saquon is expected to return to action in a limited capacity in Week 1. His unknown workload in the opening game is enough to warrant hesitation from managers. Expecting the Giants running back to carry your fantasy teams in Week 1 isn’t wise when we do not even know if he will receive more than a few carries in the game.
Allen Robinson II WR - Chicago Bears
The Bears travel west to the home of the Los Angeles Rams under the spotlights on Sunday Night Football. In their opening matchup of the 2021 season, betting lines have the Bears as 7.5 point underdogs in a low scoring affair with an o/u total of 46.0 points. The Bears and the Rams roster two of the league's elite defensive units with both teams ranking in the top 10 for defensive lines coming into 2021 per PFF. Each team is set to start a new quarterback this season, with Matthew Stafford under center for the Rams and Andy Dalton on the opposite side of the field for Chicago (for now).
NFL.com
The Bears' 6th ranked defensive line is not matched on the offensive side of the ball. Chicago enters 2021 with a 28th ranked offensive line (PFF). This unit will be tested immediately by the league's best defender, DT Aaron Donald, who garners the attention of double, triple, and even quadruple blocking assignments. The three-time defensive MVP is not the only forceful factor to worry about for this Chicago offensive line--Los Angeles brings a 4th ranked defensive line to the field in 2021 with Dante Fowler Jr and Leonard Floyd coming back to the team after both enjoyed career-best performances last season. Chicago may have to play from behind as the underdogs but will not be afforded much leisure in the passing game against this defense.
Criminally underrated, Allen Robinson II has performed well above the standards of the quarterbacks he catches passes from. My concerns for starting Robinson in this matchup do not stem from the presence of Dalton. Though Robinson is quarterback-proof, he is certainly not matchup-proof. Robinson has a history of fading when shadow covered against the league’s top corners. Fantasy managers would be wise to have a contingency plan at receiver in their lineups with lockdown corner Jalen Ramsey drawing the coverage assignment against Robinson in Week 1. In two prior career matchups with Ramsey as the shadow, Robinson has combined for 8 receptions, 85 yards and zero touchdowns while averaging a loathsome 8.25 fantasy points per game (PPR). The Rams defense as a unit allowed the fewest points per game on average in 2020 to wide receivers. The Bears will have an uphill battle in this ill-fated defensive matchup. Robinson is likely a flex play at best. Those relying on WR1 upside will likely be sorely disappointed.
Knowing who your top receivers' coverage assignments are from week to week can not only help you optimize your lineup but provide you with multiple different “sell-high” opportunities throughout the season.
T.J. Hockenson TE - Detroit Lions
Let me be clear, if you drafted T.J. Hockenson, you likely do not have a capable backup and should start him against the 49ers. With that being said, managers should not expect Hockenson to reach his season-long potential in his first game of 2021.
The Lions play host to the San Francisco 49ers to kick off the 2021 NFL season. 7.5-point underdogs at home, the Lions are going to find scoring difficult in a matchup with an o/u point total of 45.0. All offensive tendencies and metrics for the Lions from the year prior are out the window. Detroit brings an entirely new look to the field on offense in 2021, albeit with minimal depth and talent.
HC Dan Campbell and OC Anthony Lynn are set to man the play-calling duties as the head coach and offensive coordinator, respectively, of the Lions. Their first game working together as a coaching team will provide a myriad of challenges in the face of Kyle Shanahan's beautifully orchestrated 49ers squad.
The Lions offensive line matchups up quite evenly on paper against the 49ers. Both teams rank highly in the trenches with the Lions offensive line ranking 10th and the 49ers defensive front ranking 9th coming into the season (PFF). Rookie left tackle Penei Sewell will be starting at right tackle for the Detroit Lions, a position he is not familiar with in his career. Sewell will need blocking help from Detroit’s tight ends in his first pro game if the Lions expect to keep Jared Goff upright.
Catching passes from Jared Goff is not necessarily ideal. Goff is in a new uniform for the first time in his NFL career after being traded to Detroit from Los Angeles in exchange for motor city icon Stafford. Goff ranked 30th in True Throw Value in 2020 and severely hindered the production of the Rams' entire offense--Goff will also no longer benefit from two all-star receivers or a Sean McVay system.
Hockenson has the most difficult strength of schedule of any tight end in the Week 1 slate. The San Francisco 49ers ranked 1st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends in 2020. The 49ers allowed only 8.0 points on average to tight ends last season on the back of one of the brightest young defensive stars in the NFL, Fred Warner. The 24 year old, All-Pro linebacker Warner is the NFL’s best coverage man at his position. Period. According to NextGen stats, when pass catchers were covered by Warner in 2020, their catch rates dropped by a drastic 16.5%. That percentage was the highest rate of any defender in the NFL since 2017, regardless of position. Not only will Hockenson be the primary shutdown focus for the 49ers' pass defense he will also have to deal with picking up extra blocking assignments now that Nick Bosa has returned to the 49ers lineup.
Cleveland Browns D/ST
One of the top fantasy defenses selected off the board in 2021, the Cleveland Browns travel to Arrowhead Stadium in a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday. The o/u total for this AFC contest is the highest of any game during the Week 1 slate. Vegas betting lines project 54.5 points combined between these two teams. A high-scoring matchup is also expected to be a back and forth affair, favoring the Chiefs by 6.5 points. Kansas City will be hell-bent on making a statement in Week 1 after their disappointing Super Bowl collapse. I would not bet on the Browns D/ST to hold back the onslaught from Kansas City’s offensive weapons and would even bench this D/ST unit in fantasy during the opening week.
Selected in fantasy drafts as a top 10 defensive unit on average, the Browns D/ST holds immense seasonal upside due to the presence of monster edge rusher Myles Garret and pro bowl defensive back Denzel Ward. The addition of Jadeveon Clowney to play the edge opposite of Garret has made the Browns one of the more desirable D/ST units to roster in fantasy football. The Browns defense just so happens to be facing the most undesirable matchup imaginable in Week 1.
Though the Browns excel at pressuring the quarterback and breaking up the big play, they lack depth at the second level. Cleveland ranked in the bottom twelve teams for passing yards allowed in 2020 with 247.6 yards per game on average. In addition, The Browns gave up 21.8 fantasy points per game on average to quarterbacks in 2020 and Patrick Mahomes has a career average of 24.5 points per game. Expect the Browns to struggle mightily under the barrage of the Chiefs air attack that put up a league-leading 303.4 passing yards per game in 2020.
A high-scoring game script like we see projected for this matchup should keep Mahomes throwing often, spelling bad news for those hoping for even the smallest point totals in their weekly lineups. The Browns allowed 15.1 points to tight ends on average in 2020 and 43.1 points combined to opposing wide receivers. The Kansas City Chiefs trio of future hall of fame talents, Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill are next to impossible to stop on the best of days. If you have invested in this Browns D/ST unit in fantasy, it is too early to drop them for streaming options now. Do not hesitate on sitting this defense on your bench in Week 1 as they may very well finish the day with a negative scoring line.
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Matthew Ward @PsychWardFF
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.