The long-awaited arrival of the NFL’s opening week is finally upon us. Now is the time to put the process into action. You may not be able to win a league championship in your first matchup but you can set the tone of success for your entire season. In this Week 1 preview, I highlight the “Set it and Forget it” stars of fantasy football that will hit the ground running on opening day. Start your studs, you drafted them for a reason. These are my five most promising candidates to finish number one overall, at their respective positions, in the opening week of the 2021 season.
Kyler Murray QB - Arizona Cardinals
My season-long stance on Kyler Murray remains solidified for opening day: K1=QB1. The Arizona Cardinals are on the road to face off against the Tennessee Titans in a cross-conference matchup. Two of the NFL’s premier offenses square off in what is sure to be a shootout scoring battle—Vegas oddsmakers have the o/u total on this game projected at 52.5 points. With both teams rostering mediocre defenses, this game script could provide tremendous fantasy value for the players on the slate.
Tennessee ranked 29th in pass defense in 2020, allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 277.4 yards on average. The Titans gave up 25.9 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position last season, 3.1 points above league average. Little has changed from a personnel perspective for the Tennessee defense. PFF has Tennessee's defensive line ranked 23rd overall to begin the season. Allowing 120.8 rushing yards a game in 2020, the Titans front seven will have their work cut out for them attempting to slow down the NFL’s most dynamic dual-threat quarterback. The addition of rookie cornerback Caleb Farley and veteran linebacker Bud Dupree should bring some much-needed talent to this pedestrian defense. Nonetheless, a monumental leap for this defensive unit from last year in a matchup against Kyler Murray and company is unlikely.
The Arizona Cardinals house one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, ranked 11th to begin 2021 by PFF. A premier pass blocking unit, anchored at the center position by perennial all-pro talent Rodney Hudson, the Cardinals O-line should have no issues providing Kyler with plenty of time to carve up the Titans defense on the ground and through the air.
In his third year as an NFL pro, Kyler Murray has the luxury of passing to two former all-pro wide receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green. Although Green has seemingly entered the declining stages of his career, DeAndre Hopkins has only gotten better with age, posting his best career success rates against man-coverage last season, per receptionperception.com. The Cardinals are not void of depth behind these two name stays either. Former Paul Hornung award-winning wide receiver Rondale Moore was drafted in the second round by the Cardinals this offseason and is expected to make an immediate splash as a rookie with his versatile skill set. The Cardinals will look to turn up the heat against Tennessee in hopes of maintaining a sizable lead in the face of another high-powered offense.
Week 1 can often produce some sub-par performances from expected stars as they gear up for a long season. Kyler Murray is not one of those stars. Always in “midseason form” Kyler consistently starts blazing hot, averaging 25 fantasy points per game in Week 1 matchups. Kyler progressed steadily across the board in all passing efficiency metrics from his rookie to sophomore season. There is no reason to think Kyler will not make another considerable leap in his third year as a pro. With a fantasy-friendly matchup on deck, Kyler Murray is in a smash spot to finish as QB1 in his first start of the NFL season.
Jonathan Taylor RB - Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor faces the easiest projected week one matchup of any running back in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts draw the Seattle Seahawks as their first game of 2021 in an inter-conference matchup. With a projected O/U of 48.5, this game sits around the middle of the pack for points total on the weekly slate. Opposing head coaches Pete Carroll and Frank Reich orchestrated the 8th and 9th ranked offenses in 2021, respectively, and predicate their success based on a sufficient run game.
Taylor has shown his proficient consistency against stout defenses, leaving the middling Seahawks with a nightmare defensive assignment. As a rookie, Taylor ranked 10th in total evaded tackles despite starting the season slowly and receiving a 26th ranked opportunity share at 52.8%. Taylor ranked 16th overall in rushing yards over expected. Meeting expectations, Taylor’s RYOE is directly in line with his 15th overall 5.5 yards created per touch rating. If Taylor progresses his efficiency even the slightest amount as a sophomore, he could see an outstanding increase in overall production. I believe there is no better place for Taylor to start his developmental growth than against a struggling Seattle defense in Week 1.
Zach Bolinger/AP
Seattle's defense projects very poorly against running backs on the road, giving up a blistering average of 32.5 fantasy points expected to running backs in 2021 tying the Jacksonville Jaguars for 32nd on the year per SI’s Michael Fabiano. Allowing only 95.6 rushing yards per game on average, the Seahawks were entirely dumbfounded when stopping pass-catchers out of the backfield in 2020. Taylor saw just 39 targets as a rookie, playing second fiddle to Nyheim Hines in the passing game. Taylor did, however, boast a number one overall catch rate for running backs at 92.3% with zero dropped catches. Now that Carson Wentz is under center, I expect Taylor to be used as a security blanket for the Colts signal-caller.
Wentz has targeted tight ends and running backs heavily throughout his career, favoring tight ends to a tune of 35.3% target percentage. With Indianapolis completely void of pass-catching depth, especially at the tight end position, Wentz should look to the physically imposing and sure-handed Taylor to fill that role.
The path to success for Taylor in this matchup is paved by the NFL’s second-ranked offensive line. Captained by the league’s number one rated offensive lineman, Quentin Nelson, the Indianapolis Colts have assembled a fierce and formidable unit that excels in all areas of blocking. Lining up against the Seahawks' 29th ranked defensive line should render easy work for this Colts protection unit. This offensive line will have no qualms providing ample space for Taylor to find running and receiving lanes out of the backfield. The Colts averaged 124.8 rushing yards per game in 2020. A similar rushing attack will be a primary focus in beginning their 2021 season.
Rostering a top-ranked defensive unit on the other side of the ball, The Indianapolis Colts have the ability to control the game script against the Seahawks. In 2020, the Colts’ defense allowed only 21.5 points per game on average. The Seahawks may be facing an uphill battle in their opening matchup. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will be calling his first game for the Seahawks and it is yet to be seen how this offensive unit will function under new management. If the Colts can hold a lead early, the game script points to positive production for Jonathan Taylor.
Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons
I was not a fan of drafting Kyle Pitts at his ever-rising ADP this offseason but if you were one of the managers bold enough to draft Pitts in 2021, you are definitely starting him in this juicy matchup. An O/U betting line of 48.5 is quite interesting for two teams with porous secondaries and fast-paced offenses. The Atlanta Falcons are infamous for running the score up on teams and blowing massive fourth-quarter leads. Hosting the visiting Philadelphia Eagles with sophomore sensation Jalen Hurts under center for the first time to start an NFL season should make for a high-scoring affair.
The Falcons ranked 5th in total passing yards in 2020 averaging 272.7 yards per game, while Quarterback Matt Ryan led the league in pass attempts with 627. Furthermore, with career journeyman and backup Mike Davis topping the depth chart, all signs point towards the Falcons continuing that pass-first approach in 2021.
The Departure of Julio Jones via trade to the Tennessee Titans has left an enormous void of talent to fill for the Falcons in the pass-catching department. Pitts is an extraordinary athlete, even by NFL standards. Standing at 6’6” and 245lbs with athletic scores that will make you refresh your BRoto Player Cards, Pitts is expected to fill the Julio Jones role immediately as a rookie. Calvin Ridley is the only returning reliable pass catcher on this Falcons offense. Ridley and Pitts should receive an alpha's share of the passing volume in their debut.
Fantasy Football by BRoto App
A back and forth battle should ensue as Jalen Hurts and company will be afforded plenty of opportunities to keep up with the high volume pass attack of the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed in 2020, allowing a ridiculous 297.3 yards per game to opposing teams. In Jalen Hurts’ three full starts for the Eagles at the end of the 2021 season, he averaged 282.3 passing yards, 79.3 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. Hurts has proven in a small sample that he can put up big numbers quickly and in bunches. All things considered, this game should yield impressive fantasy performances on both sides of the ball in what should be a full four-quarter shootout.
The Falcons enter 2021 with the 24th ranked offensive line according to PFF. Philadelphia likes to flex their front seven defenders, running heavy blitz packages to alleviate their easily permeated secondary. If the Falcons offensive line is unable to withstand the charge, Matt Ryan will be forced to check down early and often to keep the ball moving. Atlanta has openly reported on planning to use Pitts all over the field. Whether it be outside, in the slot or off the line, Pitts will be a big target for Matt Ryan against this aggressive Eagles front seven.
Encouragingly for Pitts and his fantasy managers, the Falcons are projected to have the easiest strength of schedule for a tight end in the first week. A top 5 ranked defensive line by PFF, the Eagles second-level unit leaves a myriad of holes to exploit for pass catchers. The Eagles defense gave up an average of 16.7 points per game combined to rival tight ends while on the road in 2020. Ranked 26th in 2020 in red-zone efficiency against tight ends, the Eagles provide Pitts with an opportunity to flash his highly touted "generational talent" label.
Los Angeles Rams D/ST
A top-two defense selected off of fantasy boards in 2021, the Los Angeles Rams benefit from the third-lowest O/U total of the Week 1 slate. An expected point total of 44.5 offers a safe floor for one of the NFL’s premier defensive units. The Rams host a new-look Chicago Bears' offense. Andy Dalton is the projected starter for the game, though many pundits have joked that Justin Fields could get his start to his NFL career as early as halftime. More than likely the ageing Dalton will remain under center for the entire set, allowing Los Angeles’ defense to feast on Dalton’s ineptitude.
Three-time NFL defensive player of the year Aaron Donald is somehow still in his prime at only 30 years of age. Commanding the attention of entire offensive lines, Donald often needs three linemen to stop his warpath towards the quarterback. Backed by lockdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey, Donald and company can commit to quarterback pressure knowing Ramsey can be left on an island, effectively shutting down the entire side of the field he covers. This entire defense can thrive due to the presence of these two men, ranking 2nd in total sacks with 53.0 and 12th in interceptions with 14 in 2020.
The Rams are one of the few defenses in the NFL you have to be wary of starting any player against. The Rams ranked first in both QB and WR points allowed last season—allowing only 15.7 fantasy points per game on average to quarterbacks and 29.7 points on average to wide receivers in 2020. Los Angeles also ranked 6th in fantasy points allowed to running backs last season, further proving there are no easy outs against this squad.
The Rams defense should also have a positive game script with newly acquired quarterback Matthew Stafford at the helm of the offense. Although the Bears boast a stout defense in their own rights, I have no doubts in a Sean McVay offense led by Matthew Stafford to put up large point totals against any team. If Los Angeles can put Andy Dalton in a game situation where he is forced to throw, this defense could rack up several turnovers in a blowout win.
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for player cards, statistics, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
Matthew Ward @PsychWardFF
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.