Welcome back to Clay’s DFS Corner. Here we are going to identify some of our favorite DFS plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games!!
Best games to play:
1. DAL @ SD O/U- 55
a. Implied totals: DAL: 26, LAC: 29
2. ARI vs MIN O/U- 51
a. Implied totals: ARI: 28, MIN: 23
3. SF @ PHI O/U- 50
a. Implied totals: SF: 26.75, PHI: 22.75
Top plays GPP:
1. QB: Captain Kirk Cousins ($6200 DK//$7400 FD): He scored 25 points last week and I expect him to need to throw to keep pace with ARI.
2. RB: Jonathan Taylor ($7200 DK&FD): The Colts may get smashed by LAR but they will at least take advantage fo the poor LAR rush defense before it’s over. Oh and Taylor had 7 targets in week 1.
3. WR: Justin Jefferson ($7400DK/$7300FD): He under performed last week so this is a great spot to go back to him with low rostership.
4. TE: Gerald Everett ($3600DK/$5000): He makes a great leverage play considering Metcalf and Lockett’s expected rostership.
5. D/ST: PHI ($2400DK/$3900FD): Philly wrecked ATL offensive line and I expect more of the same against the 49ers.
Top fades:
1. QB: Matt Ryan ($5600 DK, $6700 FD): Don’t get cute here. The Falcons looked bad last week, no unit looking worse perhaps than the offensive line. Philly has an excellent front four but it is unreal that the Falcons were running the ball down multiple scores. Something is off in ATL (finished with under 300yds of offense), and I don’t want to find out what it is especially facing a blitzing Bucs defense on the road. No thank you!
2. RB: James Robinson ($6400 DK, $5500 FD): It’s a damn shame that Carlos Hyde is taking a meaningful snap share from Robinson (Hyde- 9 carries, Robinson- 5) carries. Urban Meyer is obsessed with jamming Carlos Hyde carries into games. Until he’s gone, fade Robinson.
3. WR: Cedrick Wilson ($3100 DK, $4900 FD): Again, don’t get cute with salary relief here. Cooper and Lamb are going to dominate the slot, leaving Wilson with the tougher matchup.
4. TE: George Kittle ($6400 DK, $6700 FD): I have no idea how to project this offense. With that in mind, I’ll pay up for Waller for the near 34% target share and 10+ targets/gm.
5. D/ST: SF D/ST ($3600 DK, $4800 FD): I’m not going to overreact to Jalen Hurts dismantling ATL but SF just lost Jason Verrett, who tore his ACL, and now have to go up against the Eagles om the road. SF just gave up 430yds total to Detroit, fade them.
Top plays Cash:
1. QB:
a. Kyler Murray is the clearly the top option but you have to pay to play. He’s at $8,200 this week on DK and $8,700 on FD.
b. Russell Wilson is also fairly expensive this week ($7,500) against a feeble Colts team. But as the saying goes, nothing like a home cooked meal and your lineup will eat good with Russ this week.
c. Justin Herbert at only $6,700 and hosting the Cowboys with an O/U of 55!? Take the savings and run!!
2. RB:
a. What if I told you there was a CMC arbitrage that costs $2,600 less than CMC? Would you be interested? Austin Ekeler, LAC RB and FF ambassador, is that dude. Yeah, he didn’t catch a pass last week, but he received the money goal-line carries and LAC has an implied total of 29 points.
b. If you’re feeling lucky, Elijah Mitchell at $5000 should do the trick. He compiled a 19/104/1 line last week and Mosthurt is gone for 6-8 weeks. We could be discussing how Sermon or Hasty smashed by the end of this week but Mitchell does have an excellent college profile and will likely have the first shot at establishing a hot hand.
c. If you want to go safe and cheap, Chase Edmonds is the guy. He had 12 rushes for 63 yards and 4 receptions for 43 yards last week and he’s only $4,900 on DK. He’s a little too pricy on FD at $6,000.
3. WR:
a. Imagine a world where a player puts up 13/139/2 and is only $800 more expensive the following week. Time to hang with Mr. Cooper. Matchups don’t scare me and Amari plays both inside and outside.
b. Since were on the throw-back with Mr. Cooper, can I interest you in a CD? Again, I’m not scared of the matchup. Lamb and Cooper both had double digit slot snaps last week, per @PFF_NateJahnke.
Dallas Cowboys
c. We’re just going continue the throw-back show bit: How about a little Keenan and Kel? Or maybe just more Keenan. Allen finished with 9/100 last week against a tough WFT defense, what do you think he’s going to do to DAL this week?
4. TE:
a. If you want to be a big spender, Waller is the play. He punished the Ravens D for 101/105/1 and proved to be matchup proof.
b. Maybe you want to save up for Kyler at QB, no problem I got you. Don’t you wanta a Fant(a)? Noah Fant, coming off an 8 target game where he went 6 for 62, now gets to play Jacksonville who was just embarrassed by Houston. Somehow, Fant is $100 cheaper this week. Sign. Me. Up.
5. D/ST:
a. I must be writing this with Rocky Mountain spotted fever because I can’t get enough of the DEN D/ST. They put up 8 points last week and now get a rookie QB with a Head Coach who wants to feature Carlos Hyde.
b. Want to save $800? Then switch to Geic… I mean the Steelers D/ST. The Raiders don’t scare me and only aired things out against Baltimore in desperation. The Steelers laid the wood to the Bills (14 DK points) and the Raiders are significantly worse than the Bills.
6. Lone-ranger play—After seeing Deebo set the world on fire, I’m going to take a stab each week at trying to find a low rostered, sub 6k player that will break the slate:
a. Nelson Agholor ($4800DK): He had a 7/72/1 line last week and gets a weak Jets defense this week. He could really capitalize.
c. For FanDuel, I’ll go with Terrace Marshall. Per @dwainmcfarland, Marshall had 25% targets per route run in a game where Carolina never trailed. Marshall could burst onto the fantasy scene in a huge way in Week 2.
Final thoughts:
1. The old double stack was in many of the winning and top lineups this past week. Mahomes + Hill + Kelce was an incredible double stack. The problem was finding the right players in the 3-4k range. This week it might be Prescott + Cooper + Lamb or Russ + Metcalf + Lockett.
2. If you use chalky players (i.e. Callaway, E. Moore) in tournaments, then you will need to find a way to make your lineup unique. The tournament winners for $1 and $3 GPP’s had some chalky players but then used players like Melvin Gordon or Deebo Samuel or the Steelers D/ST. Just something to keep in mind when you are building lineups.
Best of luck in week 2!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.