Each week, several members of the BRoto staff will offer one player each to buy low on and one player each to sell high on. Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring players at their lowest value and dealing players at their highest values!
Now let's dive in to the week 3 targets and sells:
Buy Low
Chase Claypool - WR Pittsburgh Steelers
If I told you before the season started that Chase Claypool would end the season with 119 targets, any fantasy player would have jumped at the opportunity to draft him at his ADP. Despite a relatively slow start, that’s his exact pace for the season. Unfortunately, that has only resulted in a WR57 performance in the first couple weeks of the season.
When you drafted Claypool, you knew what you were getting: a big play waiting to happen. What you hoped was that on days where the big play doesn’t hit, he would not crush your team. So far in 2020, that’s been the case. Despite not exploding, Claypool has posted back-to-back 10 point performances in PPR. Hardly a superstar but also not going to Aiyuk your team.
Despite the perceived slow start, Claypool is on pace to have more targets, and has a higher aDOT (18.21 — 6th in the NFL), than he did in his rookie season. The opportunities have been there but Big Ben and him just haven’t connected. Now, with Dionte Johnson battling a knee injury, any missed time for Johnson would result in better odds for Claypool to hit on the big play that has eluded him thus far.
In addition, Claypool can also do some sneaky damage on the ground. Despite Juju Smith-Schuster getting a touchdown run in Week 2, those play designs are usually Claypool’s. Last season, he was 5th among WRs in rushing attempts and scored a league-leading two rushing TDs. This year, he is second among all WRs in rushing attempts and leads the position in rushing yards in this young season.
Claypool is exactly what you thought he’d be: the perfect WR3/Flex that won’t crush your team on bad days and could win you weeks on good ones. Buy him now to take full advantage of the blowups to come.
Tim Petropoulos
Robert Woods WR - Los Angeles Rams
All the fan-fare with the new look Rams has been over Cooper Kupp, and deservedly so. Through the first two weeks of the season, Kupp has 16 receptions on 21 targets with 271 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The 28-year-old wide out is currently WR2 overall in fantasy, only behind Seattle’s Tyler Lockett.
Matthew Staford has clearly established a special connection with Kupp but what does this mean for Robert Woods? Well, Woods has put up decent numbers through two games thus far but nothing that noteworthy: He’s scored 12.4 fantasy points in week 1 and 12.0 points in week 2.
For a Rams offense that has evolved into a pass-happy unit with Stafford, Woods should see an uptick in targets as the season progresses. Defenses will start to scheme against Kupp by double covering him, forcing Stafford to look elsewhere. This is where Woods will shine. Plus, with the status of Rams starting running back Darrell Henderson questionable after injuring a rib cartilage in week 2, head coach Sean McVay may look to pass even more.
A week 3 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks poised to be a shoot-out and if the Bucs defense looks to double cover Kupp, look for Woods to have a big day. Right now may be the best time to buy low on the former USC star because he’s set to have a big game this upcoming Sunday.
Kyle McKee
George Kittle - TE San Francisco 49ers
This has been a weird start to the season for the 49ers, all things considered. Raheem Mostert falling instantly to injury and Jeff Wilson Jr. starting the season on the PUP has left the running back room in chaos. Currently sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitchell leads the backfield, whole JaMycal Hasty and rookie Trey Sermon deal with injuries. Brandon Aiyuk has been in Shanahan's doghouse since the end of training camp and has only seen one target through two weeks. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel is receiving a shockingly high target share and has managed to remain healthy so far despite his consistent injury woes. All of this combines for enough uncertainty without adding a potential QB controversy between veteran Jimmy Garappolo and first rounder Trey Lance. So what DO we know about this team? And more importantly, about George Kittle?
For starters, before going down to injury last season in Week 8, George Kittle was the TE1 in all scoring formats. He finished the 2020 season as the TE3 in PPG by a 2.5 point margin which is significant. Kittle also only has a 16% target share this season, but in his two full healthy campaigns he had 22% and 25% of the targets on his team, which are huge numbers. In two games this season, Kittle has played 95% and 100% of snaps for the 49ers offense. There is no reason to assume Shanahan is going to throw the towel in on his immensely talented tight end and only use him as a run blocker. This is not the time to panic. This is, however, an excellent opportunity to buy low on a top tiered tight end (which as we all know, are very hard to come by). Go for it with confidence.
Mike "Schiz" Schissel @michaelschissel
Sell High
Damien Harris - RB New England Patriots
Through two weeks, Damien Harris has shown his hand on who he will be this season. Luckily for the person who rosters Harris, flipping him at peak value might be easy given his back-to-back double-digit performances to start the year.
A target is worth almost three times as much as a rush in PPR leagues. Most leagues these days are PPR or half PPR, making Harris less valuable than he might otherwise be in a standard league.
Harris has three receptions for 19 yards in the first two weeks and it has become clear that he will not be involved in the Patriots passing game. Moreover, the Patriots offense led by Mac Jones has been boring and mediocre at best—something that will result in fewer TD opportunities for Harris than one may expect.
In week 1, Harris rushed for 100 yards. In week 2, Harris rushed for a TD. Unless Harris runs for both 100 yards and a TD, which he likely won't do much this season, his ceiling is capped as a back-end RB2. I'd rather flip him for a WR (perhaps Robert Woods, if you refer to the buy low portion of this article), and secure my RB2 position with a different RB.
Jason Petropoulos
Brandin Cooks - WR Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks has been fantastic to start the season, there is no denying that. He is top ten in targets, target percentage, receptions, reception yards, and True Target Value. He is also the 10th ranked fantasy receiver. He has been a consistent, if not spectacular, fantasy asset for several years in a row now. Everything about him yells stud . . . or so it seems.
Brent Coomer/Houston Chronicle
With Tyrod Taylor now out for multiple weeks and no clear timetable, the Houston Texans are turning to third-round rookie QB Davis Mills to take over as their leader. Mills was a decent college prospect but almost all scouts agreed that he was not ready to be an immediate NFL caliber starting QB. With Taylor’s season punctured, we can expect the same for Brandin Cooks’ fantasy value.
Let us not disregard the friendly matchups for Cooks to start the season as well. The Texans opened their season against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns, a combo that boasts one single cornerback inside the top 60 of PFF coverage grade among all CBs. This soft schedule takes a swift turn beginning in week 3 as the Texans next three games are against the Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. All three teams are already among the top 6 in least fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers and each have a cornerback within the top 15 in PFF Coverage Grade.
Come Week 6, when the Texans play Indianapolis, Cooks will be far from the “must start” player some are treating him as now. His value will never be higher and you can likely flip him for an RB2 or WR2/3 which certainly will be a win down the stretch. Javonte Williams stands out as someone I would absolutely be giddy trading Cooks straight up for. Good luck!
Mike Petropoulos
Rob Gronkowski - TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No tight end has had a hotter start to their 2021 season than Rob Gronkowski. Through two games, Gronkowski is leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (4) while being ranked second amongst tight ends in fantasy points per game (24.4). He trails only Travis Kelce by .04 points per game on average. I am not here to spin an empty narrative on Gronkowski’s few outlying metrics because, quite frankly, he has been incredible. I am here to tell you it is time to sell as high as possible on Gronk.
During the offseason, fantasy managers were drafting Rob Gronkowski in the 12th round as the TE14 off the board (125th overall). For most people, that meant selecting Gronkowski as a bye week/injury replacement for their already rostered tight end. If any of that previous sentence rings true to you, then it is time to cash in on that investment. Gronkowski’s value has skyrocketed well above acquisition cost after the first two weeks of the season. Managers now have a window in which they can sell a cheaply acquired depth piece for substantially more value. I would be quick to pursue offers. The production that has opened this window could close at any minute.
Negative touchdown regression is a guarantee for Gronkowski. All four of Gronkowski's league-leading receiving touchdowns in 2021 have come in the red zone. In the Buccaneers two wins to start the season, Gronkowski has had four red zone targets, four red zone receptions, and four red zone touchdowns. A 1:1 touchdown/reception ratio is impossible to uphold.
The 2021 NFL season is still in its adolescence. Nevertheless, impatient managers are always willing to jump the proverbial gun in attempts to win the marathon in the first few steps. Perhaps there is a disgruntled George Kittle manager in your league looking for a quick fix to their sinking roster. Whatever the move may be, Gronkowki’s value will never be higher than it is right now. Take the money and run.
Matthew Ward @PsychWardFF
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