If at some point on Sunday you weren’t yelling, “Well that wasn’t supposed to happen!” Then you clearly weren’t watching the craziness that was NFL Week 1.
Week 1 is almost always the most unpredictable week in DFS, but accountability is important. So I am here to recap what I correctly identified in week 1 of Clay’s Corner and flex, then get humbled by the bad and ugly section. Onward!
The Good:
The Kyler Murray & Deandre Hopkins stack absolutely smashed for 60 points on DraftKings (DK) and 57 points on FanDuel (FD). This one was fairly easy to identify and it certainly payed off. Rondale Moore also had a solid debut tallying 4/68, paying off at his price tag. We will continue to monitor him.
The Russ & DK/Lockett stack was a semi-hit. I can only take partial credit here as Metcalf only scored 16 points on DK and 14 points on FD. However, if you used only Russ and Lockett instead, you absolutely smashed! Gerald Everett was also a nice pick at cost after finding the end zone.
Another partial credit hit with the Kirk Cousins + Jefferson/Thielen stack. If you had Thielen in your lineup, you feasted. Jefferson did not return value, but he did miss a TD by inches which always hurts, and would have resulted in a much more palatable output had he gotten in.
Tee Higgins was a great value. Although he was highly rostered, Higgins pulled through with a 4/50/1 line, giving you 3x value at his depressed cost.
The Bad:
The quiz-kid/former Jeopardy host Aaron Rodgers fell flat on his face and dragged the entire offense with him. Maybe New Orleans’ defense is better than we think, but boy that was a really bad beat. No money was made with GB stacks.
Both Kyle Pitts and George Kittle failed to deliver. Kittle was overshadowed by Deebo Samuel and Pitts could not connect with Matt Ryan, even with 8 targets. TJ Hockenson was affordable and boomed, making him the TE that we should have targeted in that price range.
Sam Darnold was my QB value pick and he was very meh. Throwing for 279 yards and only 1 TD is not going to cut it. Going forward, we really need to weigh rushing more heavily when selecting QBs. Jalen Hurts ended up as the QB to target for both cash and GPP’s. It is ok to go cheap at QB to upgrade at other spots, but when there is an abundance of value like there was with Hurts, there is no need to push the issue.
The Ugly:
Raheem Mosthurt (see what I did there). I really liked Mostert in both GPP’s and cash this past week and got even more excited Sunday morning after we found out before kickoff that Trey Sermon was going to be a healthy scratch. It started off nicely with 20 yards on just two carries, but came crashing down when he hurt his knee just minutes into the game. You can’t predict injuries, so Mostert ends up in the ugly column by default with an ugly fantasy line.
Deebo Samuel. I’m not sure Dr. Strange could even find a universe where Deebo pops off for 9/189/1 while Aiyuk doesn’t see a target, but here we are. I did not identify Deebo as a main target which definitely ate into possible winnings.
Takeaways:
Use recency bias for next week’s main slate!
Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)
If stars like Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson drop in rostership after their underwhelming week one performances, pounce on the opportunity! Adam Thielen may also be a fade if his price jumps up to match his week 1 output.
I would be VERY cautious using Deebo Samuel in DFS lineups next week as a repeat of week 1 seems unlikely. I would also avoid the SF RB room as we have no idea still who the lead back will be.
Kyle Pitts may be a strong TE target if his price drops and players are scared away by his underwhelming week 1 performance.
See you on Friday for Week 2 of Clay’s DFS corner!
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By Clayton Jones (@FF_Pulse_88)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.