Week 2: Buy Low and Sell High

Each week, several members of the BRoto staff will offer one player each to buy low on and one player each to sell high on. Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring players at their lowest value and dealing players at their highest values!

Now let's dive in to the week 1 targets and sells:

Buy Low 

Ezekiel Elliot - RB Dallas Cowboys 

When a star player puts up a dud in the first game of the season, fantasy managers take notice. They especially notice when everyone around him has a great fantasy day. This is the case with Ezekiel Elliot. 

After producing a paltry 11/33/0 stat-line on the ground and just two catches for six yards through the air, fantasy managers are panicking due to the rough start after a worse-than-expected showing last season with Dak out. Take advantage. 

Despite the lack of output, Zeke was on the field for almost 75% of snaps, a workhorse back snap count. In addition, he faced a stout run defense that ranked first in the league in 2020 in rushing yards allowed and a game script that saw Dak Prescott throw the ball a whopping 58 times (tied for the 13th most pass attempts in NFL History). 

Zeke will most certainly get more touches next week and, despite playing a pretty good run defense in the Los Angeles Chargers, will have a better matchup. I’m much more concerned with a guy like Austin Ekeler, who didn’t have a single catch, than I am Zeke. Use this time to grab yourself a stud for the cheapest price possible.  

• Tim Petropoulos (@BRotoFFTim)

Michael Pittman Jr - WR Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman Jr was a favorite sleeper of many entering 2021 fantasy drafts, including myself. I expected Pittman Jr to break out immediately in 2021 against a porous Seahawks secondary. Once Seattle gained an early 14-3 lead this past Sunday, I was sure Carson Wentz was going to pepper Pittman Jr with targets. I sat back with a feverish joy in anticipation but the targets never came. After the game, I sent out trade offers for Pittman Jr in every league that I did not already roster him in. Managers are sure to be disappointed in Pittman Jr's opening game line of just 3 catches for 29 yards. Considering his pre-draft ADP, managers can steal Pittman Jr for pennies on the dollar. Impatient and impulsive managers might even cut Pittman Jr in frustration.

Pittman Jr is a physical nightmare for defenders with his unique blend of size and speed, registering a 95th percentile speed score at 6’4” and 225lbs. When looking at Pittman Jr’s receptionperception.com success tree, you can see how misused he was as a blossoming rookie. That misuse of talent continued into 2021 as Pittman was only targeted four times in Sunday’s loss. 

We know Pittman can succeed as a deep threat when called upon. Pittman posted a 100% success rate on deep corner routes as well as a 60.7% success rate on deep nine (straight) routes as a rookie. Pittman scored above average success rates against man coverage as a rookie with a 75th percentile score of 71.6%. Historically, 77% of rookie wide receivers with Pittman’s rookie season route success have had a 1000 yard receiving season in their careers, per Matt Harmon’s database dating back to 2014. A breakout from Pittman as a sophomore is timely if the Colts expect to find success in 2021.

No Colts Wide receiver saw more than five targets as Wentz favored the checkdown while playing from behind this week. Running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines saw 15 targets combined. 18 of Wentz's 38 total passes travelled less than five yards downfield. When Wentz did attempt to push the ball deep, he found success with Zach Pascal who scored the Colts’ only two touchdowns on the day. Do not rely on Pascal’s success to be a continuing trend. 

Pittman Jr is the most talented receiver on a depleted Colts depth chart and should see the volume to levy that claim throughout the season. Pittman Jr is the true alpha receiver for the Colts and this aberration of a Zach Pascal breakout offers managers a perfect opportunity to buy low. 

• Matthew Ward (@PsychWardFF)

Tyler Higbee - TE Los Angeles Rams 

As the season grew closer, I became more and more bullish on Tyler Higbee. After week 1, I wish I had him on all of my teams. 

Higbee had a very reasonable ADP because many did not believe in his potential after a down year in 2021 where he split time with Gerald Everett--people even talked themselves into thinking that rookie TE Jacob Harris would have a role. 

Well, playing time questions be damned, Tyler Higbee opened the season playing every single snap for the Los Angeles Rams. Moreover, Higbee ran a route on 96% of the new QB Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks. If you didn’t roster Higbee, be happy that he didn’t find the endzone en route to his five catch, sixty-eight yard performance because then his hype would be much higher than it is right now. Stafford looks like he could play at an MVP level this entire season with Higbee running a lot of routes for him. Let others focus on Van Jefferson’s surprise performance and grab Higbee while you can. 

• Jason Petropoulos (@BRotoFFJason)

Sell High 

Elijah Mitchell - RB San Francisco 49ers 

The surprise protagonist of week one came in the form of a San Francisco 49ers running back. After Trey Sermon was declared inactive and Raheem Mostert injured his knee, Mitchell burst onto the scene by racking up 100+ rushing yards and a TD. However, that job is all but safe. 

For starters, we never know what Shanahan will roll out any given week. Just last year, Jeff Wilson posted the following numbers: RB90, RB10, RB62, RB53, RB1, in consecutive weeks.

If you were one of the lucky few to have Mitchell rostered (and hopefully starting) last week, look for a desperate league mate panicking about Saquon, facing the reality of James Robinson or even the Sermon manager who might be looking for an upgrade. Get the most value you can out of the rookie running backs week 1 performance.

If you don't roster him, don't break the bank trying to acquire him, use 15% of your FAAB budget at most and if you have the roster space. Fantasy is all about not overreacting.

• Santiago Casanova (@BRotoFFCasanova)

Mike Williams - WR Los Angeles Chargers 

Mike Williams had a great first game of the season, catching eight balls for 82 yards and a touchdown. He saw a ton of targets and has fifth year breakout talks at an all time high for him. This is why you should cash in now. 

Mike Williams has never  lived up to his potential as the seventh overall pick of the 2017 draft but his name continues to hold value. Just last year, Williams was very inconsistent as he finished as a wide receiver four or worse in 73% of his games. More often than not, he burned you. 

The 12 targets he saw this past week was only the fourth time in his career seeing double digit targets in a game. I contend that a large part of this target increase can be associated with Austin Ekeler, who was dealing with an injury before the game and only saw one target. Ekeler is known as an elite pass catching back and will see increased targets as his health improves.  

Mike Williams has always been inconsistent and usually doesn’t see enough volume to be a great weekly option. He can have big games like he just had in week one, however, he has proven that he is unable to be consistent over the course of an entire season. Week one in fantasy football is full of overreactions and if you can capitalize on Mike Williams value, cash out.  

• Gianluca Martini (@_gmartini)

Deebo Samuel - WR San Francisco 49ers 

Deebo Samuel had an incredible Week 1. The third year wide-out finished with nine receptions on 12 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown. You can't ask for much more than that! Which is precisely why you should sell high. That, and Brandon Aiyuk. 

Aiyuk, coming off a rookie year where he finished as a WR1 five times, received zero targets on Sunday, for some mysterious reason. Is his hamstring injury more serious than it seems? This seems unlikely as he played 47% of snaps despite not seeing a single target. 

Is he in the doghouse with Kyle Shanahan? This seems far more feasible as he proved last season that he is arguably the most talented receiver on the team. 

Dubbed by some as "the next Julio Jones,” there is no doubt in my mind that Aiyuk will see his fair share of targets going forward. On top of all this, the 49ers scored 41 points on Sunday despite only attempting 26 passes. Nine for twelve is a pace that Deebo simply cannot maintain going forward, which means the best has already come. 

Keeping in mind Deebo's propensity for injury, his value will truly never be higher. It is worth noting that Samuel does have a nice rapport with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, so don’t just sell to sell. Make sure to get good value in return. 

• Mike "Schiz" Schissel (@michaelschissel)

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