Week 1: DFS Overview

After another long summer with no football, the NFL season is finally upon us. There’s no better time to get into daily fantasy football than now, so I’m here to help. In this article, I’ll give you the run-down by highlighting the top dawgs, the middle-of-the-pack targets, and the cheap sleeper picks for each position in Week 1.

QB

Top Dawgs: 

Kyler Murray: $8,400 (FanDuel) $7,600 (DraftKings)

If you’ve been reading up on fellow BRoto writer Matt Ward’s latest pieces, you’ll know that K1=QB1. Murray’s got a juicy matchup in Week 1 where his Arizona Cardinals go on the road to Tennessee to take on the Titans. If you want to find out more on why Murray is the no.1 option for week 1 head over to Matt’s Week 1 Preview - Set it and Forget it.

Jalen Hurts: $7,600 (FD) $6,400 (DK)

At a lower price point than Murray, Jalen Hurts holds just as much upside. The Philadelphia Eagles go on the road to face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1. This game is set-up to be a high-scoring affair, as both teams have stellar offenses with porous defenses. Pro Football Focus has the Falcons defense in their lowest defensive tier heading into the 2021 season. Additionally, PFF projects the Falcons as the second worst defensive line in the league and the worst secondary in the league for 2021. Hurts is set up to have a field day at Mercedes Benz Stadium this Sunday. 

Others to Take Note of: 

Trevor Lawrence: $6,800 (FD) $6,200 (DK)

Lawrence may be playing in his first NFL game this upcoming Sunday but he could not have asked for an easier matchup. From their defensive front to their secondary, the Texans are just a mess everywhere. Lawrence and the Jags are primed to start the season off with a high note. With a high floor and high ceiling, Lawrence is a stellar, affordable play at QB for Week 1.

Matt Ryan: $7,300 (FD) $6,000 (DK)

As mentioned when discussing Jalen Hurts, the Eagles v. Falcons game is set up to be a high scoring affair. Last season, Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw the football more than any other QB in the league. That plan doesn’t seem to have changed, even with the departure of Julio Jones, as the Falcons used their fourth overall selection to take stud Tight End Kyle Pitts. In the backfield, Atlanta is starting 28-year-old journeyman RB Mike Davis. No disrespect to Mike Davis, the guy’s poised to have the best season of his career and many have him on their Fantasy sleepers list, but he’s not someone that defense's scheme for. Expect Ryan to air it out against a poor Eagles secondary. 

Sleepers

Sam Darnold: $6,500 (FD) $5,000 (DK)

Ahhhhhh, the classic revenge game: The Panthers are home facing off against Darnold’s former team the New York Jets. 

At a price point of  just $5,000 on DraftKings, you’re getting an absolute steal by taking Darnold as your week 1 QB. PFF has the Jets defense in their bottom tier units heading into the 2021 season, with the 28th ranked secondary unit in the league. In Joe Brady’s offense, with weapons like Christian McCaffery and DJ Moore, I expect Darnold to look like a completely different QB in 2021. 

With that being said, one area the Jets do excel at on defense is their defensive line. PFF has the Jets D-Line as the seventh ranked unit in the league entering the new season. If the Jets manage to get pressure on Darnold, look for Sam to dump it off to McCaffery multiple times. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Darnold throws a two yard dump off to CMC, and he takes it 50+ yards to the house. A Darnold and McCaffery stack is looking like a good DFS option for Week 1. Heck, throw in DJ Moore, and fully ride the Panthers in week 1, why not? 

Teddy Bridgewater: $6,600 (FD) $4,800 (DK)

After a tight training camp QB battle with Drew Lock, Denver Broncos head coach Vic Fangio announced that Teddy Bridgewater will be the starting QB. In their first game of the season, they take on the New York Giants at home. Even though the Giants are poised to make a step up on defense this year with all their acquisitions, Teddy Two Gloves is still worth a look. At his Draftkings price point of $4,800, rostering Bridgewater will allow you to get heavy hitters at the other positions, like a Christian McCaffrey and/or Tyreek Hill. You could also look to stack Bridgwater with Jerry Jeudy and/or Noah Fant. Bridgewater might not light up the fantasy scoreboard but he’s definitely worth a look just based on his price point and his projected roster percentage. 

RB

Top Dawgs

Christian McCaffrey: $10,400 (FD) $9,500 (DK)

What is there really to say about CMC, he has been a fantasy monster as long as he’s been on the field. If you can stomach the high price point on both FanDuel and Draftkings, you take him. Don’t overthink this. It’s Christian McCaffrey against the Jets.

Dalvin Cook: $9,400(FD) $8,600(DK) 

Like CMC, there’s not much to say about Cook. The dude’s a beast when he’s on the field. In Week 1 the Vikings travel to Cincinnati to face off against the Bengals. Roster Cook and he will deliver. It’s as simple as that. 

Alvin Kamara: $ $8,600 (Both FD and DK) 

Kamara is gonna put up fantasy numbers this season. With Drew Brees retired and Michael Thomas out for at least the first six games of the season, the entire Saints offense will run through Kamara. For a much cheaper price than CMC and Cook, Kamara offers similar upside.

Others to take note of 

James Robinson: $5,900 (FD) $6,400 (DK)

With Travis Eteinee out for the season, Robinson steps up as the clear-cut RB1 in Jacksonville. Coming off of a rookie season in which he rushed for over 1000 yards and scored 10 total TDs, Robinson’s numbers could improve this season. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence should vastly improve the Jags passing game, which in turn will help Robinson in the run-game by opening up holes in the defense. Robinson also projects to see more targets with Lawrence under center. Expect a strong start for Robinson and the Jags offense against the pedestrian Texans defense. 

Najee Harris $6,500 (FD) $6,300 (DK) 

The main reason you’d want to roster Najee Harris in week 1 is to go against the rest of the pool. With a tough matchup on the road against a good Buffalo Bills defense, and a Steelers offensive line that struggled mightily last season, the running game may struggle in week 1. Many DFS players may opt to pass on Harris for week 1. Well, that’s where you come in to go against the odds. 

Najee Harris is going to be used a lot this season! The Steelers are really high on this kid. Lock him in to see at least 80% of the snaps as a true three-down back. At just $6,500 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings, you’re getting a bargain on Harris, whose price will only go up from here on out. 
Steals and Sleepers 

Raheem Mostert: $6,100 (FD) $5,800 (DK)

Jose Carlos Fajardo/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News/Getty Images

Mostert may eventually lose some playing time to rookie RB Trey Sermon but going into Week 1, Mostert is the Niners starting back. With Jimmy G still as listed as his starting QB, head coach Kyle Shannahan will likely stick with the game plan of run first, run second, and run some more. In a matchup on the road against the Detroit Lions, who many project to be the worst team in the league, Mostert could easily rush for over 100 yards and a score. At only $6,100 on FD and $5,800 on DK, Mostert is a steal, even if he splits time with Sermon. 

Damien Harris: $5,800 (FD) $5,200 (DK) 

At under $6,000 on both Fanduel and DraftKings, Harris is a great option if you’re trying to save money. With a rookie QB in Mac Jones, the Pats may try to ease Jones into the NFL by focusing more on the running game early on in the season.The Pats have a really good offensive line, PFF has the Pats O-Line as the third best in the league, so expect holes to be open for Harris to run through against the Dolphins on Sunday. Plus, with Cam Newton no longer on the roster, Harris becomes the Pats main goal-line threat. 

Telvin Coleman: $5,400 (FD) $4,900 (DK)

Telvin Coleman is getting disrespected with his DFS prices. He may play for the Jets but he’s still a starting RB. He’s priced below guys like James Connor, Javonte Williams, Nyheim Hines, and JD McKissic.

With a rookie QB under center in Zach Wilson and a Panthers defense that struggled against the run last season, Robert Salah will likely run Coleman a lot. He may prove to be a major steal on the Week 1 slate.  

WR

Top Dawgs 

Calvin Ridley: $8,100 (FD) $7,900 (DK) 

Ridley enters the 2021 season as the Falcons number one receiver for the first time in his career. Even as a WR2, behind Julio Jones, Ridley has established himself as one of the best receivers in the game. Last season, Ridley finished the year as WR5 overall in PPR formats. You can expect his targets to go up as the departure of Julio leaves plenty of them to go around. On the flip side, Ridley will now receive top billing from secondaries from every team they play but, for Week 1, that won’t be an issue. Ridley is one of the best plays at the WR position for Week 1. 

Tyreek Hill: $8,500 (FD) $8,200 (DK)

Two of the past three seasons, Tyreek Hill has finished as WR1 (2018) and WR2 (2020) overall in PPR formats. The one year he didn’t, 2019, Hill only played in 12 games and still averaged 15.35 fantasy ppg. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, Hill is a DFS target every week. Even though the Browns have the third best secondary according to PFF heading into the season, they have to go against the best offense in the sport in Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce to start the season. He’s Tyreek Hill. Don’t overthink it. If you want a top-tier wide-out, Hill’s always a good option. 

DeAndre Hopkins: $8,200 (FD) $7,800 (DK)

If you have made it this far in this article, you’ll know by now that I’m big on Kyler Murray as a DFS play for Week 1. The guy averaged 25 fantasy ppg in his three career week 1 starts. Going against a not so great Titans defense is a plus too. Assuming that Murray has a big day, it’s also safe to assume his top target, DeAndre Hopkins has one as well. Going against a bottom half projected secondary with three of the Titans five projected starters taking on full-time starting gigs for the first time in their careers has to be mouth-watering for Hopkins. Even though it’ll be expensive, a Murray and Hopkins stack is well worth it for week 1. 

Others to take note of: 

DJ Moore: $6,700 (FD) $6,100 (DK) 

Moore’s going against a PFF ranked 29th Jets secondary in Week 1. You can bet your monkey's uncle that Moore is going to see his fair share of targets this Sunday. Plus, the loss of Curtis Samuel leaves a bunch of targets to be had, so why not give most of those to the Panthers top target? Makes sense to me.

Steals and Sleepers:

Laviska Shenault Jr: $5,600 (FD) $5,000(DK)

Laviska Shenault Jr. is the Jaguars’ slot/gadget receiver. He can line up in the slot, outside, and even take carries as a RB. Now that Travis Etienne has been ruled out for the season, Shenault could see an uptick in usage. It is well known that players take leaps in their second year in the league and I expect Shenault to take a leap this season. With a new upgrade at QB with Trevor Lawrence, and going against a bad Texans defense week 1, Shenault could be a sneaky good play at just $5,600 on Fanduel and $5,000 on Draftkings. Especially since most people may opt to go to roster RB James Robinson instead of Shenault.   

Corey Davis: $5,800 (FD) $4,900 (DK) 

Davis is a good play based on his price point and the fact that he’s a team's number 1 receiver. Plus, he’s an even better option than Cooks because he’s cheaper and he’s in a better offense with the Jets. If rookie QB Zach Wilson can carry over his pre-season success to the regular season, then the Jets could look like a totally new team this year. Davis is by far the Jets best receiving threat so look for Wilson to target him a lot against a decent Panthers secondary. At $4,900, you’re getting a steal. He’s sure to surge in price as the weeks go on and he produces. 

Russell Gage: $5,700 (FD) $5,300 (DK)

If you haven’t noticed yet, I’m big on the Falcons skill positions players for Week 1. Gage now moves into the WR2 position for a Falcons team that threw more than anyone last season.. A home matchup against a bad Philly defense is the perfect way to start the season. Gage, at a below 6K price point on both FanDuel and Draftkings, is a good option to save you some money to get top tier guys. 

Jaylen Waddle: $3,600 (DK)

I just had to throw this one in here just for his price alone. At just $3,600 on Draftkings you're getting a guy who could prove to be Miami’s WR1 this season. A rookie receiver going against the Pats and Bill Belichick is always tough, but I’m banking on Waddle’s talent. Plus, the Pats top corner, Stephon Gilmore is out for the first six games of the season, making Waddle a much more viable play for Week 1. If the gamble pays off at this low price point, you could be looking at some serious dough to start the season.   

TE

Top Dawgs: 

Travis Kelce: $8,500 (FD) $8,300 (DK) 

It’s Travis Kelce.

George Kittle: $7,000 (FD) $6,300 (DK)

After an injury-riddled 2020 season, George Kittle comes into the season more motivated than ever. He’s ready to re-establish himself as one of the top tight-ends in the game and I think that redemption tour starts Week 1 against the Lions. As mentioned before, the Lions are projected to one of the worst teams in the league. Last season, opposing QBs that went against the Lions defense averaged for a passer rating of 118.4. At a much lower price point than Kelce, you could get someone with just as much upside in week 1.

Others to take note of: 

Dallas Goedert: $5,900 (FD) $4,800 (DK)

As mentioned numerous times now, the Eagles v. Falcons game is going to light up the scoreboard. Give me Goedert at this price.

Kyle Pitts: $6,000 (FD) $4,400 (DK)

See Goedert, Dallas.

Sleepers

Jonnu Smith: $4,900 (FD) $4,100 (DK)

The Patriots offense seems to be centered on running backs and tight ends this season. Bill Belichick spent a lot of money on Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, probably to make life easier for his rookie QB. Expect Jones to target Smith, especially in the red zone.

DST 

Top Dawgs 

San Francisco 49ers: $5,000 (FD) $4,200 (DK)

The 49ers travel to Detroit to take on the Lions in Week 1. The Lions are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. With a downgrade at QB, from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff, and a depleted group of wide receivers, 2021 is going to be a long year for Lions fans. To start the season off, they match up against one of the best defenses in the league in the 49ers. Even though the Niners are the most expensive option on both Draftkings and Fanduel, it may be worth trying to fit them in your roster. 

Carolina Panthers: $4,600 (FD)\$3,600 (DK) 

The Panthers defense gets to go against rookie QB Zach Wilson and the Jets offense to start the season off. Even though the Panthers defense struggled last season, they were relying on a lot of young players to produce. With the same cast of characters returning, year two should see improvement from the young Panthers core. Brain Burns and Jermey Chinn will look to feast against a Jets offense that finished the 2020 season dead last in total yards per game at 279.9. Look for the Panthers to wreak havoc on the Jets offense this Sunday

Denver Broncos: $4,100 (FD) $3,300 (DK)

The stacked Broncos pass rush headlined by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants offensive line unit that ranks dead last heading into the 2021 season, according to PFF. Additionally, Giants offensive lineman have combined to produce the worst overall grade in the league over the past two years and they rank bottom eight in both pass blocking and run blocking. Not to mention, the Broncos spent the off-season adding to their stout defense by drafting Patrick Surtan II, Ronald Darby, and Kyle Fuller. 

Sleepers 

Buffalo Bills: $3,600 (FD)  $2,500 (DK)

The Bills start the season at home in a matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With an O/U of 48.5 on Fanduel, both teams are projected to put up some points this Sunday. The Steelers come into the 2021 season with a lot of offensive firepower. All the talk out of training camp was that rookie running back Najee Harris is the real deal. Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool and Eric Ebron make a legit group of psss-catchers. However, there is some major cause for concern for the Steelers offense. That concern lies in two areas: QB and offensive line. Big Ben Roethlisberger isn’t getting any younger. After struggling during the last half of the 2020 season, it’ll be interesting to see if Big Ben can bounce back. If he is to bounce-back he’ll need help from an O-line that ranks second to last in the league heading into the season according to PFF. I could easily see this game that most people see as a high scoring affair, to turn out to be a defensive slug fest.

Arizona Cardinals: $3,400 (FD) $2,100 (DK)  

The Cardinals travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans in week 1. At just $2,100 on Draftkings, you’ll get defense that may come out and surprise the Titans offense. Even if they don’t, a pick-six is always an option in high scoring affairs.

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By Kyle McKee (@KaleMcKee)