Week 14: Clay’s DFS Corner

Welcome to the BRoto Weekly DFS article! Here we are going to identify some of our favorite plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Let’s have another #printfest for week 14!

Games to Target:

1. DAL @ WFT O/U- 47.5

a. Implied totals: DAL: 26; WFT: 21.5

2. LV @ KC O/U- 48

a. Implied totals: LV: 19.5; KC: 28.5

3. JAX @ TEN O/U- 44

a. Implied totals: JAX: 17.75; TEN: 26.25

Top plays GPP:

QB (some of these plays will overlap with cash):

1. Ryan Tannehill ($7300 FD):

   This play isn’t for the faint of heart, yet the matchup is quite inviting. The Jaguars just gave up 295 yards and 3 TDs to Stafford right after allowing Jimmy GQ to go for 176 yards and 2 TDs.

2. Cam Newton ($7400 FD):

   He’s baaaack . . . to being unreliable? I certainly wouldn’t consider Newton in cash but in GPPs he’s worth the dice toss. The Falcons defense is giving up 58.2% points over expected to QBs and are giving up 34.9% points over expected to pass-first QBs. Fire up the Newton and DJ Moore stacks.

3. Russ Wilson ($7500):

   This one is all matchup and low rostership. The Texans are allowing 10.3% points over average to QBs, ranking as the 11th best matchup for QBs to exploit. There’s plenty of risk here, yet the reward could be worth it.

AP Photo

RB:

1. Nick Chubb ($7500 FD):

   Baker Mayfield may be playing awful football at the moment, but the Ravens defense is also playing awful and Nick Chubb can make them pay. The Ravens defense is more easily attacked through the air vs. the ground, so this is definitely a contrarian play.

2. D’Onta Foreman ($5900 FD):

   If you’re really feeling lucky, Foreman could pay off nicely. The Jaguars are giving up 17.1% points over average to RBs on the ground. Foreman could be splitting work 2- 3 ways, with Hilliard and McNichols, but if Foreman carries the full load, he could carry you far in GPPs.

3. Alvin Kamara ($9000 FD):

   Kamara will be chalky but that just means we need to be unique elsewhere. The Jets have been horrid against RBs. Per Broto, the Jets rank as the best matchup for RBs, giving up 55% points over average to the position. Could be a monster day on Kamara’s return to action, especially with Ingram and Montgomery ruled out.

WR:

1. Tyler Lockett ($7300) & DK Metcalf ($7300):

Seattle draws an awesome matchup with the Texans. A one- week Russvival might be in the cards. The Texans are currently giving up 5.4% points over average to WRs.

2. Tee Higgins ($6800 FD):

Maybe Tee is an alpha? Maybe Cincy has 2 alphas? I’m not sure, all I know is Higgins is getting targeted. Since the stinker vs. Vegas, Higgins has 22 targets over his last two games played. Higgins is a great plug and play in GPPs and cash.

3. Michael Gallup ($6100 FD):

Quietly, Gallup has amassed 32 targets in his last 5 games. Realistically, the WFT defense is going to have to focus on CeeDee & Cooper, leaving opportunities for Gallup. We’ll just have to hope that Dak can be accurate this game.

TE:

1. Dawson Knox ($6000 FD):

   Knox had a tough game in the windy Monday night loss but still had 6 targets. The Bucs are giving up 18.9% points over average to the TE position, which sets Knox up in a beautiful rebound spot.

2. Gerald Everett ($4800 FD):

   It was truly an ugly performance for Everett last week. On the bright side, he has 27 targets over the last 4 games. He also draws a friendly meeting with the Texans, who are allowing 38% points over average to TEs.

3. Gronk ($7000 FD):

   Gronk is priced up and in a bad matchup, so why am I recommending him? Because he’s played amazing and others will pivot to Kelce and Kittle.

D/ST:

NYG D/ST ($3800):

Since we’re all about being risky, let’s gamble on the Giants defense. There are no stats for me to convince you on this pick. With Mike WIliams & Keenan Allen potentially out, the Giants could surprise.

Top cash fades:
QBs:

Patrick Mahomes ($8500 FD):

Here are Mahomes’ TD totals in his last 5 games: 1, 0, 5, 1, and 1. The game where he threw 5 TDs was against the Raiders, so there’s definitely a chance many bet on Mahomes to do the same this week. I’m going to avoid that train.

RB:
Zeke ($6900 FD):

It was kind of FD to price down Zeke, yet I’m still not interested. He’s working through a knee injury and came off the field multiple times last game. That’s just not a gamble I want in cash.

CEH ($6500 FD):

The good news for CEH is that he gets to play the Raiders (allowing 20.1% points over average to RBs). The bad news, however, is that he’s still splitting work with Darrel Williams. CEH out-carried D-Will 14-5 last week but Williams has either led or tied for the highest target share among KC RBs since week 4. Avoid CEH like gas station sushi.

WR:

Jerry Jeudy ($6300 FD):

If only the Broncos had a QB who could truly run this offense. Instead, Jeudy is stuck with Bridgewater. The matchup is wonderful but it features two teams willing to suck the air out of the ball and run all day. The Broncos unveiled their new toy in Javonte last week and he should get more run this week. This game also features a 42 point over/under, one of the lowest on this slate.

Russell Gage ($6200 FD):

Gage is in a terrible offense with a QB struggling to get the ball downfield. Sure, gage had 11/130 last week against the Bucs. The Falcons, however, are rotating a bunch of WR 3-4’s and have a tough game vs. Carolina. You might want to gouge your eyes if you use Gage this week.

TE:

Mark Andrews ($6900 FD):

Another battle of the uglies this week with the Ravens and the Browns. Although Andrews caught a TD in the last matchup, the Browns typically shut-down TEs to the tune of -14% points over average. Look elsewhere at TE. If you like offense, don’t watch this game.

Evan Engram ($5300 FD):

This is your weekly PSA to never use Engram. Thank you.

D/ST:
NO D/ST ($5000 FD):

The Saints defense has been bad lately. Since week 8, the Saints are giving up 29.1 PPG to opponents. I understand they get the pleasure of Zach Wilson but he stung the Eagles for 226 yds and 2 TDs last week. Maybe Wilson’s improving or maybe it was luck, but I’m avoiding paying 5k for the Saints defense this week.

Top plays Cash:

QB:

1. Tom Brady ($8200 FD): He smashed last week with 4 TDs and 268 passing yards and only received a $100 price increase,. Thanks.

2. Josh Allen ($8800 FD): He gets the pass- funnel Bucs defense, enough said.

3. Taylor Heinicke ($7100 FD): Heinicke is a little priced up this week. His matchup is a good one though. The Cowboys are giving up 64.8% points over average to rushing QBs. Although Heinicke hasn’t run much lately, he does have 5 games with 5 or more rushes. Think of Heinicke as the bargain-bin movie display in Walmart.

RB:

1. Alvin Kamara ($9000 FD): See GPP section.

2. Austin Ekeler ($9400 FD) Ekeler has had 26 targets over the past four weeks and 7 combined rushing and receiving TDs in that same timeframe. The Giants are also giving up 4.4% points over average to RBs, making them the 14th best matchup per Broto.

3. Javonte Williams ($6700 FD): Javonte finally had the stage to himself last week and did NOT disappoint. He finished with 23/102 on the ground with 6/76/1 receiving. To make things sweeter, Javonte gets the 2nd best overall matchup for RBs in the Lions, who are allowing 44.4% points over average to RBs. Find a way to get Javonte in your lineups.

4. Antonio Gibson ($7400 FD): On paper, his matchup doesn’t seem great, yet I’m still confident in Gibson. He’s had 3 straight games with 80+ yards and 12 receptions over the past two weeks. Don’t be scared off of Gibson this week.

8. WR:

1. Hunter Renfrow ($6700 FD): The prematurely balding 26-year-old is a football magnet. He has 32 targets over his last 4 games, and I expect more heavy usage for him vs. the Chiefs. He also has back-to-back 100+ yd games.

2. DJM ($6800 FD): Since Cam has taken over, DJM finally has some life. He’s accumulated 24 targets over the past 3 weeks. In 2 of those 3 weeks, he’s produced either 100 yds or a TD. This one carries some risk, yet I’m comfortable betting on DJM’s talent against a feeble Falcons defense. The Falcons are giving up 17.7% points over average to WRs, making them the 4th best matchup for WRs per Broto.

3. Tyreek Hill ($8700 FD): It’s about that time for a vintage Hill game.

TE:

1. Travis Kelce ($7500 FD): Kelce torched the Raiders for 119yds in their last meeting, have the Raiders been any better since? (No, no they have not).

2. George Kittle ($7100 FD): If Deebo is out, Kittle gets a nice boost. Cincy is allowing only 3.6% points over average to TEs. Not the best matchup, but Deebo being out should give Kittle enough volume to pay off at his price tag.

3. Austin Hooper ($5000 FD): Time to get gross. This week could be Hooper’s time to shine. No Harrison Bryant or Njoku and the Ravens are allowing 21.9%points over average to TEs. He provides nice salary relief this week if you need it.

D/ST:

1. TEN D/ST ($4700 FD): The Jaguars offense is criminally bad. Since their BYE week, the Jaguars have scored: 7, 9, 17, 10, 14 and 7 points. You can feel good about using the Tennessee D/ST this week.

2. CLE D/ST ($4100): They shutdown the Ravens in their last meeting and the Lamar-led offense has been awful lately. The Browns have given up 14.2 points over the last 5 games (excluding the Patriots game). Expect a low-scoring slug-fest here.

Lone-ranger play:
Laquon Treadwell ($5100 FD): Treadwell has been producing in an anemic offense lately. He has 8 targets over his past two games. In a game where the TEN D/ST has been vulnerable, expect Treadwell to score at least 12 PPR points this week.

Final thoughts on cash/GPP’s:

1. Kamara or Ekeler should be your starting piece in cash this week.

2. Raiders stacks should be low-rostered this week in GPPs.

3. Keep an eye on David Montgomery and Joe Mixon’s health status, they could open up great value for the slate this week!

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Best of luck in week 14, go get that money!

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By Clay Jones