Sleepers
QB: Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers
If you’re a manager in a tight spot looking for an all-upside quarterback this weekend, then look no further. Somehow, Cam Newton is rostered in just 43% of collective redraft leagues across all platforms. I’ll admit, Newton’s last start was ugly. However, we aren’t here to chase points scored in the past. There is one week left before the fantasy playoffs, and I believe Newton can help managers on the bubble steal that final seed.
The Panthers (5-7) play host to the Falcons (5-7) in an NFC South matchup of two dysfunctional franchises in desperate search of identity. The Panthers are slight favorites at 2.5 points, with the over/under set at a low 41.5.
The Panthers will be without Christian McCaffrey for the remainder of the season. An unfortunate loss for the franchise opens up an increased role for Newton in the area where he excels the most. With CMC on the sidelines, Chubba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah will handle backfield duties. Newton is a notorious goal line vulture of rushing touchdowns. Now without their lead running back, the Panthers will likely let Newton run free as their leading rusher.
Broto’s lead data analyst, Santiago Casanova, had this to say on Cam’s Week 14 matchup against the Falcons "Cam will go from playing against almost the worst matchup for a rushing QB to a team that’s a top-10 matchup for rushing QBs and a top-3 matchup for passing.” Santiago was referencing BRoto’s Defensive Points Allowed tool. There you can see the Falcons allow 22.6 PPG to quarterbacks, 28.2% over average. More encouraging is that the Falcons allow 58.2% over the average amount of PPG to rushing production from quarterbacks.
With four teams on a bye in Week 14 and countless managers in a must-win matchup, Newton is a great pickup and start option.
Matt Ward
RB: JaMycal Hasty - San Fransisco 49ers
The 49ers will be without Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon on Sunday. The game will be on Hasty’s shoulders. Sure Jeff Wilson Jr. is active . . . actively collecting dust, that is. The last time he was active, he managed a whopping 2 carries for 5 yards. The last time he started a game, Wilson managed 19/50 against the doormat Jaguars defense, equating to a paltry 2.6 yds/carry. In fact, it was so bad that Kyle Shannahan threw Deebo Samuel in at RB.
The matchup for Hasty is rather nice: the Bengals are allowing 12.2% points over average to RBs. Elijah Mitchell’s passing work has varied from 0% target share (early in the season) all the way up to 23% (week 12), so there’s a lot of work to be had for Hasty. The insane part is that he could be even more valuable if Deebo misses week 14 (Questionable with a groin injury). Take the shot on Hasty this week.
Clay Jones
WR: Jaylen Guyton - Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver room is feeling quite empty at the moment. As of Saturday, December 11th, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are on the COVID list. Keenan Allen has officially been ruled out while Mike Williams is trending toward playing but is still currently inactive. The three remaining healthy receivers for the Chargers are Jalen Guyton, Josh Palmer, and Andre Roberts. While fantasy twitter is salivating over Palmer, the player of interest in this article is Jalen Guyton.
Prior to either Allen or Williams missing time, Guyton had already played an average of 56% of team snaps compared to Palmer at 27%. It is evident that both players are inevitably going to take a step up in Week 14 but, if season trends prevail, then the most significant beneficiary should be Guyton. Another factor favoring Guyton is that he is in his third year on the Chargers while Palmer is still a rookie. He has not only gained the trust of Justin Herbert but has more comfortability with the playbook and the NFL as a whole.
Many people see Guyton as a deep threat rather than a possession receiver, and rightfully so. In 2020, Guyton ranked 3rd in the entire NFL at 18.3 yards per reception. He was also tied for 3rd with 4 catches of 40+ yards. Guyton’s big play ability is being ignored because people are looking for a Keenan Allen replacement, and this should not be the case. Guyton is a baller and, by the way, has played 46% of his snaps from the slot. A week ago we saw him with his highest catch and yardage totals of the season alongside his first 2021 touchdown, and he should ride this momentum into an average matchup versus the Giants this week. Guyton is an interesting flex play with Keenan Allen out of the lineup and is an even better play with a solid WR3 floor if Mike Williams remains inactive as well.
Nick Beaulieu
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones - Washington Football Team
TJ Hockenson or Darren Waller leave you hanging? Seals-Jones is here for you. Available in over 80% of leagues, RSJ is now the starting and every down TE in Washington again. In case you missed it, Logan Thomas is out for the season with a knee injury.
The last time he was healthy, Seals-Jones put up the following consecutive finishes: TE14, TE6, TE10, TE37, then 6 PPR points in the first quarter before getting injured. Now he is back with the TE room all to himself. Dallas isn't the softest of matchups, but I can almost guarantee you won't find a better option so widely available.
P.S. He is a must-add for playoff teams as Washington has the softest strength of schedule remaining in terms of point allowed over average (including this coming game).
Santiago Casanova
Busts
QB: Justin Fields - Chicago Bears
Justin Fields is off the injury report after missing two games with a rib injury. “Da Bears” have been waiting with bated breath for the rookie to take center stage against bitter division rivals this weekend. The Packers (9-3) are in town for this Week 13 NFC North clash against the Bears (4-8). The Bears are obvious underdogs, with FanDuel setting a 12.5 point spread in favor of the Packers.
The Packers D/ST are a top-ten team in limiting the fantasy production of quarterbacks. They allow 16.8 PPG to the position, ranked 26th in defensive points over average with -9.0%.
Fields had been largely disappointing in his seven starts before he was forced to miss time. The rookie signal-caller has thrown twice as many interceptions as passing touchdowns this season, coughing up eight picks to just four touchdowns. Fields averaged a disgustingly low 173.14 passing yards and 36.28 rushing yards during his seven complete starts.
A steep learning curve in the passing department is expected for rookie quarterbacks. What stands out is Fields’ low rushing totals. Fields has not lived up to the “cheat code” label that managers were sold on in the offseason.
The excitement to watch Fields back in action is tangible. Now is not the time, however, to roll the dice. At this point in the fantasy season, we need to mitigate risk, not invite it. Leave Fields on your bench/waivers for this week.
Matt Ward
RB: Seattle Seahawks RBs
TBS
Like Thurl Ravenscroft said in his classic song, “The Grinch,” “I wouldn’t touch [the Seattle Backfield] with a 39 and a-half-foot pole!” I think it’s fair to apply the “if you have 3 running backs, you have zero running backs” theory this week. I completely understand the temptation of a Seattle RB, as Seattle has a juicy square off with the Texans, who are allowing 11.7% points over average to RBs. Sadly, we don’t know which RB to start. Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas, and Alex Collins, could all see an equal amount of work. Collins has been as effective as molasses going uphill, Penny could literally get knocked out at any point in the game with an injury, and DeeJay Dallas has never been given the bulk of the work in this backfield. Don’t ruin your fantasy season or potential playoff berth on a low volume, low scoring offense. We’ll close out with an apt description of the Seattle rushing offense, courtesy of Thurl Ravenscroft: “stink, stank, stunk.”
Clay Jones
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. - Los Angeles Rams
Since we just talked about one Los Angeles wide receiver as our sleeper for this week, why not keep the trend going and do it for our bust as well? This time, however, we’re going to switch from the LA Chargers to the LA Rams. The wide receiver bust of this week is Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ has had a rollercoaster of a season thus far but has been playing relatively well over the past few weeks. After putting up 2.8 Half PPR fantasy points and playing 28% of the snaps in his Rams debut, OBJ has come back with 16.6 and 9.8 points in his past two games, respectively. During those two games, he averaged 75% of the snaps and has managed to find the endzone in both weeks. On paper it seems that OBJ is settling in somewhat nicely with the Rams. That paper is deceiving.
OBJ played a season-high 98% of snaps in a 36-28 showdown loss versus the Packers, logging 5 catches (10 targets) for 81 yards and a touchdown. What scares me about this line is that 71% of his point total came on one play: a 54-yard touchdown catch. While this play shows he still has his notorious big-play ability, relying on plays such as this leads to incredible volatility week in and week out.
He showed another example of this when he came back to Earth in Week 13 versus the Jaguars. He recorded 2 catches (5 targets) for 28 yards and a touchdown. OBJ had 67% of his point total on a 1-yard touchdown that salvaged an otherwise horrible day. It is evident that he is relying strictly on one big play to inflate his fantasy performance each week and that is worrisome headed into a matchup against the Cardinals in Week 14. While the matchup is not necessarily daunting for opposing fantasy wide receivers, the Cardinals’ elite pass rush is likely to disrupt Matthew Stafford enough to limit downfield plays to anyone besides Cooper Kupp. As a result, OBJ should be trending toward a down week unless he can find the endzone for the third week in a row. I’m pivoting from him this week until he can show his production is anything but a fluke.
Nick Beaulieu
TE: Tyler Higbee - Los Angeles Rams
I regret to inform you that it is once again not Tyler Higbee week. He has strung up some decent games recently but, like most TEs, he has been extremely matchup dependent. The Rams will face the Cardinals this week. A team that spent some time this season as the worst possible matchup for opposing TEs.
Right now, Arizona sits as a top-5 worst matchup with -22.9% points allowed over average, and Higbee's inconsistencies are due to strike in the worst way. I must admit that a touchdown would send Higbee to TE10+ status because that is simply how TEs work, but Arizona has only allowed two TDs to TEs all year. If there was a week to fade him, it's this one.
Santiago Casanova
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.