King of the Hill

Following a season ending knee injury to Jameis Winston, Saints QB Taysom Hill, aka Taysom Payton—HC Sean Payton’s non-biological son—could be back starting at QB this Sunday in a juicy matchup against the Falcons. What should we expect when Hill comes back?  Let’s flashback to 2020.  

Ron Chenoy

In Hill’s 4 games as the starting QB in 2020, the former TE/trick play QB looked like he belonged, slotting right into fantasy relevance. In those 4 games he totaled:

• 82 Completions on 114 attempts

72% completion percentage

• 928 yards passing (avg of 232yds/gm)

• 4 passing TDs

Hill was an average to below-average passer but he more than made up for it with his legs. Let’s take a stroll down memory lane and review his mind-melting rushing numbers:

• 39 rushing attempts (almost 10/game avg.)

• 4 rushing TDs 

• 52.25 rushing yards/gm (209 total)

Hill ranked as the #6 overall scoring QB from weeks 11 through 13 last season. Clearly, Hill has a chance to be a difference maker in leagues. At worst, Hill will be serviceable. At best, he will be a game changer.

The fantasy ramifications of a QB change always affects the weapons around the QB. No one will be affected more than Alvin Kamara. Last season with Hill under center, Kamara averaged:

• 50 rushing attempts (avg 12.5)

• 4.69 yards/att

• 3 rushing TDs 

• 16 targets (one game consisted of 10 targets), avg 4 targets/gm

• 10 receptions (one game consisted of 7 receptions), 2.5 receptions/gm

Now, let’s take a look at Kamara’s averages outside of the weeks that Hill started.

• 12.5 rushing att/gm

• 5.03 yards/att

• 1.45 rushing TD/gm

• Averaged 8.3 targets/gm 

• Averaged 6.6 receptions/gm

Clearly there was a drop-off in targets and receptions for Kamara and Kamara was less efficient when rushing with Hill in the game. Lets keep in mind, however, that these are small sample sizes that we’re working with. To dive deeper, Let’s take a look at scrimmage yards over expected for that time period courtesy of the Fantasy Football by BRoto App. 

We can see that initially, Kamara and Hill were fairly even, splitting the rushing work and both succeeding. It was only after Hill was out and Drew Brees was back, however, that Kamara really blew up again.  

As far as 2021, Kamara has struggled to match the efficiency we saw last season, currently at 3.33 yards per carry. Both Kamara’s yards after contact and yards before contact have taken a hit with his increased role in the rushing game this season as well, dropping from 2.2 to 1.5 RYAC and from 2.8 rushing yards to 2.1 RYBC, respectively. 

So what does this mean for Kamara? Unlike last season where Kamara did the majority of his damage in the passing game, the Saints are currently second in the league in rushing percentage. Because of the change in philosophy, Hill could actually provide a boost to Kamara’s rushing efficiency but may vulture TDs in the process.  The toughest part for Kamara is that he just started to see an uptick in targets. In weeks 1-4, Kamara saw only 14 targets. In weeks 5-8 (BYE week 6), Kamara had 23 targets.  We do have the one game sample of a 10 target game for Kamara with Hill under center, although the other games played seem to make that one the outlier.  

So, what does this all boil down to?  I think Hill will help and hurt Kamara in different ways. I think we can expect an increase in efficiency for Kamara, based on the updated game plan, at the expense of some targets and TD equity. If you picked up Hill, you get a potential top-8 starting QB with insane rushing upside. 

The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player usage, player cards, statistics, opponents points over average, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.

By Clayton Jones