Week 12: Clay's DFS Corner

Welcome to the BRoto Weekly DFS article! Here we are going to identify some of our favorite plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Hope you all had a good week last week, I made some questionable decisions that led to some losses but had some smashes too.  Let’s try to have another #printfest for Week 12!

Best games to target:

1. TB @ IND O/U- 53

   Implied totals: TB 28; IND 25

2. MIN @ SF O/U- 49

   Implied totals: MIN 23; SF 26

3. LAR @ GB O/U- 47.5

   1. Implied totals: LAR 24.5; GB 23

Top plays GPP:

QB: Some of these plays may overlap with cash: Jalen Hurts

1. Tom Brady $8200 FD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. AP

Per Broto, IND is best matchup for passing QB’s giving up 43.7% POINTS OVER AVERAGE!  Let the sheep be scared of the paper matchup and recency bias and trust Broto’s deep statistics.  

2. Cam Newton $8000 FD.  Cam smashed last week and gets the 6th best matchup for QB’s AND the best matchup for WR’s (Cam + DJM= sweet sweet music).  I think we can all agree that Cam is better than Joe Flacco and Flacco carved Miami up for 291 yards and 2 TD’s last week.        

RB: 

1. Jonathan Taylor $9800 FD

The vaunted Bucs run defense may not seem as tough as it seems. Per Broto’s points allowed over average, the Bucs are the 4th best matchup for pass-catching RB’s.  They are currently allowing 39.1% points over average to RBs as receivers.  Also, JT is on a tear lately, as we all know.  Start JT in GPP’s or cash and you won’t be disappointed.  

2. James Robinson $7600 FD.  Yes, I’m going back to J-Rob this week (pending health status).  Would you like to guess why?  Well because he draws the 4th best RB matchup in points over average, of course! Specifically, for rushing, this ATL defense is allowing 31.6% points over average to RB’s on the ground.  Nobody else is threatening Robinson’s workload aside from his own heel. In fact, Robinson had 100% of the rushing work last week.  Again, watch his health status going into Sunday.  

WR: 

1. Deebo Samuel $8000 FD. I’m not concerned about Deebo’s 9.1% target share from last week, it was a blowout and Deebo still contributed.  If you missed week 11 and didn’t read Matt Ward’s weekly weigh in (psst, you should), Deebo had 8 carries for 79yds and a TD.  SF’s matchup with MIN has the second-highest implied total at 49. Find a way to get Deebo in your lineups. 

2. DJ Moore $6700 FD.  Miami is #1 in points over average allowed to WR’s.  DJM has had no less than 7 targets in every game this year.  I know CMC is back, but DJM is still integral to this offense, with Cam at the helm, CMC and DJM can both be productive.  

   TE: 

   1. Rob Gronkowski $6500 FD. 

      Gronk is a little pricey this week, but he is going against the #1 TE matchup in points over average. The Colts D is giving up 71% points over average to the TE position! That is not a typo, 71%! Gronk had a nice return from his injury last week going 6/71 on 8 targets.  Gronk smash = Your lineup smash!

   2. Noah Fant $5900 FD.  The Chargers’ defense has been generous to the TE position.  Currently, they are giving up 26.9% points over average to TE’s.  This matchup also coincides with Fant having 28 targets over his last four games played.  Seems like a nice spot to wanta Fanta.  

   D/ST:

   1. CAR D/ST $4700.  The CAR defense gets a nice draw this week against the mediocre Miami offense. The Panthers defense is ranked 2nd best in pressure rate at 28.8% (per pro-football reference).  At the moment, the Dolphins rank 12th in pressure rate allowed at 24.7% per pro-football reference.  The Dolphins also rank 1st in total pressures allowed at 118 and rank 7th in total hurries allowed at 48.  

Top cash fades:

QB:

1. Aaron Rodgers $7900 FD. Rodgers thrived in a great matchup last week; This week, not so much.  The Rams rank as the 26th best matchup for passing QB’s and have a -7.8% points over average. The Rams are also coming off of a bye. Throw out that last Monday night game where the Rams were blasted.  It could be a long, cold day for the Packers.   

RB:

1. Myles Gaskin $6200 FD.  Just when Gaskin thought the role was all his, Miami brings in Philip Lindsay to complicate things.  Making matters worse is the matchup. The Panthers rank as the 32nd best matchup for RB’s in points over average. Carolina’s points over average is -25.3%, yikes.  It’s safe to avoid Gaskin and the entire Miami offense in DFS. 

WR:

1. Kenny Golladay.  This Giants offense has looked awful lately. Jason Garrett is gone, but how much is that going to help the offense? Do we all remember how bad Freddie Kitchens was in Cleveland a few years ago?  Add in that the Eagles are the 31st best matchup for WR’s in points over average at -21.9% and Darius Slay will be on Golladay, and we have a player that I do not want to be invested in.

TE:

1. George Kittle $6700 FD.  I know Kittle has been playing well lately of late, but he draws a bad matchup this week and has been on a TD hot streak.  The Vikings are snuffing out TE’s this season, allowing -16.1% points over average.  Hold off on the expensive Kittle this week. 

D/ST:

1. HOU D/ST $4900 FD.  Houston was priced up this week getting to face the Jets.  I understand that Michael Carter is out, but the Jets still have some playmakers on offense.  Houston ranks as the 9th best matchup for pass-first QB’s.  Wilson hasn’t run much this season but if he strings together some passes to Moore and Crowder, this expensive Houston D/ST could backfire.  If you want to pay this much, just go the extra $100 and get the Pats D/ST.   

Top plays Cash:

QB: 

High priced:

1. Tom Brady $8200 FD.  See GPP section

2. Jalen Hurts $8400 FD.  There’s not much to say about Hurts aside from him managing to get 20+ points.  It also doesn’t hurt that Hurts ranks 1st in Broto’s QB1 consistency rankings.  

3. Cam Newton $8000 FD. See GPP Section 

Mid-Low Priced:

1. Kirk Cousins $7500 FD

For the amount of times I’ve had Kirk in these columns you’d think he’s paying me at this point (sadly no check in the mail…..yet).  Per Broto, Kirk is tied for 2nd with 7 QB1 performances on the season.  Kirk is great yet the matchup is even better.  The 49ers are giving up 15.3% points over average to passing QB’s this season, making them the 7th best QB matchup.  More Captain Kirk this week please.  

2. Jimmy Garoppolo $6500 FD.  A nice way to spend down this week is taking a chance on Garoppolo.  He’s had 4 TD’s the past two weeks and 358 yards passing.  I get the passing yardage was low, however those games were blowouts and Jimmy’s arm wasn’t needed.  I think this SF vs. MIN game is a shootout and Jimmy will have to pass more.  It also helps that the Vikings are allowing 46% points over average to the QB position.  

RB:

1. Dalvin Cook $8100 FD.  Cook is always a good play in cash.  Lately, he’s been getting more receiving work with 12 targets over his last three games.  He also has back-to-back games with rushing TD’s.   

2. Christian McCaffrey $9700 FD.  A priced-down CMC, yes please.

3. Javonte Williams $5700 FD.  It’s time for a trip to the run-funnel, courtesy of the Chargers’ defense.  The Broncos left us with a terrible taste in our mouths after that ugly Eagles game, yet here is an opportunity to cleanse the palate.  The Chargers rank as the 3rd best RB rushing matchup, allowing 36.7% points over average to the position.  Also, if you believe in the post-BYE rookie bump this could be the week for Javonte.  

4. Najee Harris $8800 FD.  Najee has had a TD in 3 of his last 4 games and the game he went without a TD he eclipsed the 100 yard mark.  Remember that beat down the Browns put on Cincy?  That was mostly through the ground game.  The Bengals also rank as the 3rd best matchup for receiving RB’s, with 42.6% points over average to pass-catching RB’s.  

   WR: 

   1. Deebo Samuel $8000.  See GPP section. 

   2. DJ Moore $6700 FD.  See GPP section  

   3. Chris Godwin $7600 FD.  Godwin has been thriving lately, he’s had 2 100+ yard games in his last 5 games as well as 3 receiving TD’s.  With AB out another week, I expect Godwin to eat again. Want some more good news?  The Colts’ rank as the 3rd best matchup for WR based on points over average at 18.5%.

   4. Diontae Johnson $7100 FD.  Somehow, Diontae gets overlooked every week and yet, he remains a target monster.  He has had 58 targets over his last 5 games.

   TE:

   1. Gronk $6500 FD.  See GPP section.

   2. Kyle Pitts $6600 FD.  Pitts put up a dud against NE, which was no surprise.  Even including the NE game, Pitts has 33 targets over his last 5 games.  Luckily, Pitts draws a meeting with the Jaguars’ defense, who rank as the 10th best matchup for TE’s.  The Jags’ defense is giving up 19.6% points over average to the TE position.

   3. Ryan Griffin $4800 FD.  If you’re in a pinch for savings, Griffin could bail you out this week.  He’s had 13 targets over his last three games and gets the 4th best matchup for TE’s against Houston, who’s allowing 36.7% points over average to TE’s.  

   D/ST:  

   1. CAR D/ST $4100 FD.  See GPP section

   2. NE D/ST $5000 FD.  They face TEN at home without any of their main weapons.

   3. MIN D/ST $3300.  Yup, they’re back.  The Vikings rank 3rd overall in pressure rate at 28.1%, tied for 3rd most total pressures at 115 and tied for 1st in total sacks with 31, and this is without Danielle Hunter.  Use the purple-people eaters if you want to save some cash. 

   Lone-ranger play:

   1. Josiah Deguara $4900 FD.  The Rams are the 3rd best matchup for TE’s allowing 38.3% points over average.  Could be a nice flyer in GPPs.    

Final thoughts on cash/GPP’s:

1. Based off matchup ranks, Bucs onslaught stacks might win the day. 

2. Looking at early rostership projections, I think the MIN vs. SF game will go under-rostered (it shouldn’t, it’s has the 2nd highest implied total of the week.)

3. I’m not touching the Titans offense this week. 

4. Carolina onslaught stacks also project well matchup wise this week. 

Want to challenge me or just play with friends on FanDuel?!  Use the link FanDuel.com/brotofantasy and get a 20% deposit bonus on NEW accounts!

Best of luck in Week 12, go get that money!

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By Clayton Jones