Each week, several members of the BRoto staff will offer one player each to buy low on and one player each to sell high on. Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring players at their lowest value and dealing players at their highest values!
Now let's dive in to the week 12 targets and sells:
Buy Low
Dak Prescott - QB Dallas Cowboys
Shane Roper/CSM/REX/Shutterstock (9301471cj)
Man, that Kansas City v. Dallas game was ugly! Both Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott played some mediocre football. In fact, quarterback inconsistency has been one of the biggest storylines of the 2021 season, outside of the always consistent Jalen Hurts. Who would have thought we would be saying that entering week 12? Per BRoto’s QB consistency ratings, Jalen Hurts has 10 QB1 finishes, three more than the second best QB, Kirk Cousins.
Anyways, back to Dak, as there are many positives for him going forward.
The Cowboys get to battle the WFT twice in the next four weeks, a sloppy Giants team in week 16 and a beatable Cardinals defense in week 17. Sign me up!
Per BRoto, these are the points allowed over average to the QB position for the Cowboys remaining schedule:
Raiders: 17.8ppg (-4.8% points over average, easier to run against Raiders than pass).
Saints: 18.4ppg (+7.8% points over average)
WFT: 23.8ppg (31.3% points over average and they get this matchup twice ladies and gentlemen)
Giants: 17.7ppg (-2% points over average, also easier to run against Giants)
Cardinals: 15.7ppg (-11.5% points over average)
The Cowboys offense has been sputtering but Dak is also returning after missing time with injury. I would not bet on these offensive struggles continuing and Dak should end this season strong.
Clay Jones
David Montgomery - RB Chicago Bears
Since returning from injury, David Montgomery has scored a combined 17.7 PPR fantasy points in the Bears last two games. These two games were against strong run defenses in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, but luckily for DMont, Chicago's schedule is about to lighten up.
The Bears get the Lions on Thanksgiving day, followed by the Cardinals, Packers, Vikings, Seahawks and Giants. Out of the Bears final six opponents, five rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game and total rushing yards allowed.
Chicago remains one of the top rushing teams in the league as they average 132.1 rushing yards per game. That has a lot to do with the limited capabilities of their quarterbacks — Justin Fields and Andy Dalton.
Now is the perfect time to buy low on Montgomery as he looks to return to his early season form.
Kyle McKee
Christian Kirk - WR Arizona Cardinals
Christian Kirk is the definition of overlooked and underrated, which is precisely what makes him a perfect candidate for the final push of the 2021 season.
A deceptive route runner with glue-like hands, Kirk ranks first in the NFL with an 83.9% catch rate on his targets. Kirk is among the top dogs in the league when it comes to efficiency ratings. He averages 2.39 FPTS per target, ranked 5th, and 0.53 FPTS per route run, ranked 12th in 2021.
Kirk’s production dipped with the absence of Kyler Murray in the lineup. After 11 weeks, he sits ranked as the WR35 on the season. In the eight games played with Kyler under center, Kirk ranked as WR22.
The Cardinals have a bye week upcoming, allowing for Kyler and company to recuperate in time for a strong push during the fantasy playoffs. Desperate managers in need of production now will have no choice but to move on from Kirk at his lowest value as he is ineligible for lineups this week. If you are able to outlast your opponents in the race for the playoffs, try to acquire Kirk as a strong WR3 with high upside.
Matt Ward
Sell High
Nick Chubb – RB Cleveland Browns
Seeing Nick Chubb as a sell high candidate may be surprising to some but this is all predicated on fellow running back Kareem Hunt. Hunt has a chance to make his return to action this week against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Between the two backs, Hunt was the more productive fantasy player until he got hurt, and can be expected to share the backfield with Chubb once again upon his return.
It also should be noted that the Browns remaining schedule is full of tough matchup’s for RBs.
Out of Cleveland’s final six games, four are against teams that possess defenses that rank in the upper half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. This includes two games against the stout Raven run defense. Plus, two of the Browns final three games are against the Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers, two teams that also possess strong run defenses, which is not ideal for the fantasy playoffs.
If you are fighting to make the playoffs in your fantasy league and you have Chubb on your roster, looking to move him might be in your best interest. If you’re in a PPR league try and trade for a back like Ezekiel Elliot or D’Andre Swift who are both utilized in the run and pass game and both have more favorable schedules going forward.
Kyle McKee
Mike Williams - WR Los Angeles Chargers
During the first five weeks of the 2021 season, Mike Williams looked to be a world-beater, capable of winning the league title for every fantasy manager savvy enough to draft him in the middle-to-late rounds of preseason drafts.
Williams averaged 20.92 FPTS per game during that stretch, seemingly breaking the career-long stigma of being a one-dimensional deep threat decoy.
However, in Week 6, the Ravens defense halted the dreamy narrative in its tracks.
From Weeks 6-10, Williams averaged just 5.92 FPTS. Williams’ alpha-level target share fell from averaging 10.2 targets per game in the first six weeks to 5.4 targets per game over the past five weeks.
Williams popped off in Week 11 against the Steelers with 20.70 FPTS. Recency bias can do wonders in erasing the perception of continued disappointment. Although Williams did have his highest-scoring performance since Week 6, he received just six targets. Williams' first touchdown in five games was the saving grace for an otherwise average performance.
The question remains; Is Mike Williams able to maintain production in his newly assumed role for an entire season? I, for one, am not willing to stick around to find out. Try and entice a fellow manager with the narrative of Williams’ early-season production and strike while the iron is still hot.
Matt Ward
Chase Claypool - WR Pittsburgh Steelers
Chase Claypool is an incredible athlete and bright young WR, however, this Steelers offense just continues to struggle in the passing game and cannot rightfully feed the beast.
Per Broto, Claypool has only had five weeks with a 20%+ target share this season. Mix this with Roethlisberger’s limited passing volume (has thrown for over 253 yards only four times this season) and it becomes tough to envision an end of season turn around for the sophomore receiver.
Claypool has just one top-15 WR scoring week and only two top-20 WR scoring weeks on the season. The Steelers are running the ball at a 37.6% rate, which is the 4th highest in the past 6 years.
The icing on top of the cake though, is that Claypool has a true target value of just 3.41, which ranks 51st overall. Uh oh.
This is not the season for Claypool.
Clay Jones
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.