Welcome to the BRoto Weekly DFS article! Here we are going to identify some of our favorite plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games!
Best games to choose players from:
1. GB @ CIN O/U- 50
Implied totals: GB: 26.5, CIN: 23.5
2. DET @ MIN O/U - 49
Implied totals: DET: 20.75, MIN: 28.25
3. CLE @ LAC- O/U- 47
Implied totals: CLE: 22.75, LAC: 24.25
Top plays GPP:
1a. QB: Daniel Jones ($6000 DK, $7400 FD): Jones gives you a lot of salary relief to stack your tournament teams. The Giants also have a 22.5 point team implied total and play the Cowboys who just let the NFL’s leading-rushing-TD-monster, Sam Darnold, run for 35 yards and two touchdowns on 6 rushes last Sunday.
1b. Justin Herbert ($6800 DK, $7700 FD): After hearing head coach Brandon Staley speak this past week, it’s hard not to root for the Chargers. Herbert has been on fire the past two weeks, throwing for seven TDs and is an affordable stack with awesome options such as Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen. Throw a couple of Chargers stacks in those big field GPPs.
Kirby Lee
2. RB: Damien Harris ($5500 DK, $6500 FD): If Harris didn’t play for Bill Belichick, I’d recommend him in cash. Due to the ambiguity, Harris makes for a better GPP play. Harris nearly doubled his snap share from 31% in week three to 61% in week four despite struggling against a great Tampa Bay run defense. If Harris can get an uptick in targets (averaging only 2 the past two weeks), he could have a huge game against a terrible Houston team. The Patriots are also 9-point favorites with a 24.25-point team implied total so a run-heavy game script could be in the cards.
3. WR: Mike Williams ($7200 DK, $7700 FD): Fairly priced after a down week, Williams still ranks 4th in redzone opportunities and was averaging over 10 targets/gm before his week 4 dud. Let everyone sleep on Big Mike this week and make them pay!
4. TE: Tyler Conklin ($3500 DK, $5100 FD): With a 49.5-point implied team total, Conklin is a nice GPP play. He also can provide great leverage against Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison who are expected to be popular picks. Conklin is averaging 7 targets/gm the past two games.
5. D/ST: MIN D/ST ($3000 DK, $3900 FD): The Lions might be without start offensive linemen Frank Ragnow, Taylor Decker, and Penei Sewell this weekend, uh-oh. MIN has 13 sacks on the year and has clamped down in points allowed the last two games, allowing just 17 to SEA and 14 to CLE. Insert Jared Goff who has fumbled three times, thrown 2 INT’s AND been sacked 10 times this year. It could be another long day for Lions fans.
Want some more savings on DK? How about Chandler Jones and JJ Watt against a rookie QB in his first start, Trey Lance. ARI D/ST ($2900 DK) has caused 10 sacks and four INTs and although Lance refrained from turning the ball over to SEA, DC Vance Joseph should give Lance a headache.
Top cash fades:
1. QB: Justin Fields ($5200 DK, $6400 FD): Fields is not a bad play, this is more about trusting Vegas lines. The Bears team implied total is 19.5-points on the road. Of course, he could provide 3x value at his salary cost but his true upside will be limited by HC Matt Nagy. Fields has averaged only 3 rushing attempts the past two weeks.
2. RB: D’Andre Swift ($6100 DK, $6900 FD): Swift flopped with 8 DK points last week and now the coaching staff is going with a “hot hand” approach. We need to get more clarity before touching this situation and avoid the Lions lowly 20-point team total.
3. WR: Brandin Cooks ($6100 DK, $6300 FD): Rookie QB Davis Mills against a tough Patriots defense with no weapon except Cooks is not a recipe for success. Bill Belichick is going to smother Cooks and has a history of removing a team’s best weapon from the game plan. Fade Cooks this week, especially with the HOU 15.25-point team implied total.
4. TE: Evan Engram ($3200 DK, $5300 FD): Although Engrams’ target share and snaps increased last week, so did Kyle Rudolph’s. With the return of WRs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard looming, there may not be enough footballs to go around.
5. D/ST: (TEN D/ST $3800 DK, $5300 FD): Déjà vu, let’s not make the same mistake as last week with the Titans. They just gave 297 yards passing and 2 TDs to Zach Wilson. The Jaguars may be in turmoil but Trevor Lawrence can sling it and James Robinson is back on track.
Top plays Cash:
1a. QB: Joe Burrow ($6100 DK): I don’t know how sharp Bengals HC Zac Taylor is, but I have to believe he’s going to let Burrow chuck the ball with Joe Mixon out instead of giving Samaje Perine a bunch of carries. The Bengals’ 24.25-point implied team total isn’t the highest, but I expect Burrow to carry the load in a potential shootout with the Packers.
1b. QB: Kirk Cousins ($6500 DK): Kirk Cousins has been awesome for fantasy this year aside from last week. He’s had multiple passing TDs in three out of four weeks and in two of those games he threw for three TDs. He, much like Burrow, may be burdened with carrying the offense with an ailing Dalvin Cook. I also love both of these plays because the WRs attached to the QBs are great plays as well.
2a. RB: Derrick Henry ($9000 DK, $10,400 FD): Here are some fun Derrick Henry stats vs. the Jaguars
11 career rushing TD’s vs. JAX, most in his career
1013 rushing yards against JAX, 2nd most vs. a single team in his career
Averages 101.3 rushing yards vs. JAX
Start King Henry in cash, again.
2b. RB: Ezekiel Elliot ($7000 DK, $8000 FD): Zeke has a 75% snap share and is holding steady at 66.7% rushing share. Zeke is getting fed, and DAL has a 29.75-point team implied total.
Bargain shopping BONUS:
RB: Chase Edmonds ($5900 FD): Edmonds is steadily cruising along with 8-12 rushes and 4+ targets in each game. He won’t get goal-line carries but he’s a solid play for 12-20 points and nice salary relief. If Edmonds can’t go (worked on the side for Thursday’s practice), fire up James Conner.
RB: Leonard Fournette ($6400 FD). Tampa Bay has a team implied total of 29 points and Brady has cooled off after throwing 9 TD’s in the first two games of the season. I still expect Brady to get his points but Fournette could easily get a TD with a handful of catches to solidify his day (averaging 3+ targets over the last 4 games). He surprisingly has no rushing TDs despite being 13th in redzone opportunities, expect that to change against MIA.
3a. WR: Justin Jefferson ($7700 DK, $8000 FD): Jefferson has 12 catches for 197 yards and 0 TDs in 2 games vs. the Lions in is career. Expect Jefferson to cash in that first TD today. Jefferson is also sporting a 23.4% target share and averaging just under 10 targets/gm. There might be a lot Justin Jefferson on the redzone channel this weekend.
3b. WR: Diontae Johnson ($6500 DK): Cash games are about volume and Diontae = volume. His targets have actually increased, from 10 in week one to 13 in week four. As long as he’s healthy, we’re saving a WR slot for Diontae.
3c. Ja’Marr Chase ($5800 DK): He’s been blazing hot with four TDs in as many weeks and I don’t think this is the week he cools off or regresses. Chase had a 28.1% target share last week with Higgins out. I would downgrade this play a bit if Higgins is back.
4a. TE: Darren Waller ($7300 DK, $7400 FD): He’s been too quiet since week 1, where he posted a 10/105/1 stat line. He’s averaging 7 targets/gm and the Raiders are passing at a 63.2% clip. Waller is also holding a 23.5% target share of the Raiders offense and is #1 with 8 RZ opportunities. He also ranks first in total targets with 40 and first in aDOT at 10.43.
4b. TE: Dalton Schultz ($4400 DK, $6200 FD): The unexpected target machine had a 36.4% target share last week for the Cowboys and was in on 79% of the offensive snaps. Schultz has also commanded 6+ targets in 3 of 4 games.
Lone-ranger play:
1. WR: Marquez Callaway ($4700 DK, $5400 FD): Callaway was everyone’s pre-season darling, only to fail due to the Saints ineptitude at QB. Fortunately, the WFT is the cure-all for bad offenses. They’ve given up 10 passing TD’s (tied for fourth-worst) and the fifth most receiving yards (1,228) to WRs. Narrative time: you just know QB Jameis Winston is literally dying inside to chuck the ball downfield. This should be the game he scratches that itch.
2. WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($3500 DK, $4800 FD): His snaps were increased to 72% last week, he had 8 targets and commanded a 21.1% target share. He’s also had 3 red zone targets the past two weeks. Super sneaky play.
Final thoughts:
1. Arizona onslaught stacks are an intriguing option this week and there are many ways to get unique.
2. Chargers onslaught stacks look particularly juicy as well.
Best of luck in week 5!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.