Week 5: Sleepers and Busts

Sleepers

QB: Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee Titans 

Ryan Tannehill has been disappointing this season for fantasy purposes. The guy was being drafted in the low-end-QB1 range during draft season and is the QB19 on the season so far through four games. As someone who was actively drafting Tannehill in many leagues, I’m definitely disappointed with how Tannehill’s season started but I’m confidently starting him again this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

While it’s looking like Julio Jones will miss another game, it seems like A.J. Brown is ready to make his return to the Tennessee receiving corp after missing last week against the Jets. This is a huge bonus for Tannehill’s fantasy outlook, as it’s always important for a quarterback to have their favorite target available in their offense. With the Titans and Jaguars sharing a division, Ryan Tannehill is no stranger to theJaguars and he’s delivered some of the best fantasy performances of his career against the consistently bad Jacksonville team. In fact, he’s averaged 25 fantasy points per game in his last three games against them.

• Boyd Armstrong (@boyds)

RB: Alexander Mattison - Minnesota Vikings

Half of the fantasy community is rostering Alexander Mattison as a handcuff to their team cornerstone and workhorse Dalvin Cook, while the other half is rostering Mattison in hopes Cook is unable to play and they inherit a player with league-winning upside for free. This week, however, Mattison is in a situation we have not really seen before—potentially sharing a 50/50 backfield split. Last week we saw Dalvin Cook play through an ankle sprain, finishing the week playing 51% of snaps and accruing a statline of 9 carries for 34 yards alongside 2 catches (6 targets) for an additional 10 yards. Long story short, Cook was clearly hindered by his injury and his performance helps tell the story. Meanwhile, Mattison played 32% of snaps and accompanied those snaps with 10 carries for 20 yards. Clearly these numbers for Mattison are underwhelming but his Week 5 matchup will be much more favorable for production.

This week the Minnesota Vikings square off with the Detroit Lions. I’m not here to beat around the bush, the Lions are terrible. Not only are they terrible as an all-around football team, they are especially terrible against the run. So far in 2021, the Lions have allowed an average of 132.8 rushing yards per game alongside an average of 1.5 rushing TDs per game. All in all, the Lions are allowing 27 half-ppr points to RBs every game, which is 31st in the NFL.

There is a solid chance we end up seeing more Mattison than we do Cook. If the Vikings are winning and moving down the field with ease, there is certainly no need to be using Cook and risk further injury. If Cook is in, Mattison is in a low-mid RB2 range. If Cook is out, Mattison is a lock for top-10 production. 

• Nick Beaulieu (beaulieu_nick)

WR: Jamison Crowder - New York Jets 

NYJets.com

Crowder came back from injury last week with a bang. He played the second-most WR snaps on the Jets and had the highest target percentage in the Jets first win of the season. Rookie QB Zach Wilson quickly created a connection with Crowder and it paid off. 

Now the New York Jets travel to London to face a weak defense in the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has been torched time and time again by both good and not-so-good offenses this season. Crowder is in a prime position to succeed with his slot role firmly secured. Plug him in your lineups.

• Santiago Casanova (@BRotoFFCasanova)

TE: Tyler Conklin  - Minnesota Vikings

Conklin was a top waiver wire add after his 20.0 fantasy point performance against the Seahawks in Week 3. Week 4 yielded a different outcome. Conklin was on the field for 85% of the Vikings' offensive snaps in their 14-7 loss to the Browns. Conklin received six targets with four receptions, managing just 18 yards on those catches. The Vikings tight end ranks fourth amongst active tight ends in BRoto’s exclusive True Target Value (TTaV) metric. Conklin’s 5.47 TTaV sits behind only Noah Fant, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce for tight ends who have played all four games.

The Vikings are at home against the Lions in Week 4 in a battle of NFC North rivals. The Lions rank 8th in yards allowed to the tight end position in 2021 with 68.8 yards per game. Conklin has had four or more targets in every game in 2021, ranking 11th amongst tight ends with 22 total. His role as the Vikings number three receiving option behind Jefferson and Thielen is cemented. Conklin should see similar usage in this matchup with a healthy increase in receiving yards production. If the Vikings’ tight end can haul in his second touchdown of the season, he could flirt with TE1 numbers.

• Matthew Ward (@PsychWardFF)

Busts 

QB: Matt Ryan - ATL

The former NFL MVP commonly known as Matty Ice throughout his career could be more accurately nicknamed Matty Melt these days because he’s seemed to have slowly melted away the past few seasons. As of right now, Ryan is sitting at QB20 on the season and is averaging a measly 17.83 fantasy points per game. Next up is a matchup with the New York Jets.

Believe it or not, the New York Jets defense has been a menace to opposing quarterbacks for fantasy football, as they’ve allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterbacks they’ve faced so far this season. They shutdown Darnold, Bridgewater, and Mac Jones and each of them had their worst individual fantasy performances of the season so far against the Jets. The other quarterback they faced, Ryan Tannehill, didn’t even break 20 fantasy points despite throwing the ball almost fifty times in New York. It’s clear that for some reason quarterbacks struggle to produce fantasy numbers against them, and I think they will continue their hot streak and shut down another quarterback this week in London.

To make matters worse for Matt Ryan’s fantasy outlook, the Atlanta Falcons are without two of their top wideouts this week: Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. The loss of Ridley and Gage make Matt Ryan completely unplayable this week in fantasy, and I strongly advise to look elsewhere if you were considering using him in two quarterback or superflex leagues.

• Boyd Armstrong (@boyds)

RB: Miles Sanders - Philadelphia Eagles

It pains me to be writing this portion of the article right now because I’ve loved Sanders since he came into the league and have wished every week that he would be utilized as a workhorse. Unfortunately for me, the Eagles clearly do not care about my opinions and have done whatever they can to create a backfield committee. We have seen this more than ever in 2021 with the addition of 5th round rookie Kenneth Gainwell. Through four weeks, Sanders and Gainwell have been splitting the snaps 64% to 34% respectively. While the snap counts do not look too bad for Sanders on paper, Gainwell has outproduced Sanders in FPPG, total FP, targets, receptions, and total touchdowns (2 to 0). Sanders started the first two weeks of the season with an average of 16.5 touches per game but has averaged 7.5 in the last two. Gainwell stealing both snaps and receptions has hurt Sanders through the air in half ppr or ppr leagues, whereas Hurts rushing the ball an average of 8.5 times for 56.5 yards per game is hurting Sanders on the ground. Right now it seems like there is not enough love to go around for Sanders and his production is taking a huge hit regardless of his solid efficiency and strong PPOxTD (13th among RBs). As a matter of fact, he is not even the best rushing performer in his own backfield as Gainwell is ranked 7th overall in PPOxTD.

This week the Eagles are facing the Carolina Panthers who are currently rolling on defense, allowing the 4th least points to the RB position so far in 2021 at 10.5 points per game. Sanders has put up 7 fantasy points or less in three consecutive weeks and if things continue on the same trend they have been, Sanders is due not just for a poor week but even a poor year. Keep Sanders on the bench if you have a strong RB room specifically this week, but likely for future weeks as well. 

• Nick Beaulieu (beaulieu_nick)

WR: Odell Beckham Jr. - Cleveland Browns 

Odell is definitely not the most popular option right now but the prospect of him being on the field without Landry is a tempting one. He is currently ranked as WR30 in expert consensus but I believe that to be a mistake. 

Mayfield has come out and said that he's playing through a torn labrum that has affected his throwing mechanics. On top of that, the Browns will face one of the top defenses against WRs in the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Last week, Beckham was WR79 despite getting 20%+ target share from his team against the defense that has allowed the 4th most points to WRs. This is a recipe for disaster on all fronts and I would rather start 20 other receivers over his current ECR. 

Some alternatives to starting OBJ that I prefer are Deonte Harris, Tim Patrick and Jamison Crowder. Avoid OBJ this week, and all Browns receivers for that matter.

• Santiago Casanova (@BRotoFFCasanova)

TE: Dallas Goedert/Zach Ertz - Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have been using their two tight ends sparingly in 2021 with wavering fantasy results. Zach Ertz is ranked TE17 in PPR scoring. Counterpart Dallas Goedert is TE9. Ertz leads the tandem in targets with 19 to Goedert's 16 in 2021. Goedert has 188 receiving yards to Ertz’s 153. Both players have 13 receptions. Goedert has one more touchdown with two on the season. All in all, Neither player has stood out as an every-week starter in fantasy.

Interestingly, Ertz has been the favored target over the past two contests. 15 of his 19 targets came in Weeks 3 and 4. The Eagles face off against the 3-1 Panthers on the road in Week 5. The Panthers defensive unit is allowing just 44.8 yards per game to tight ends in 2021, conceding a stifling 6.8 PPR fantasy points per game to the position. This season has marked a turning point for the Panthers' defense. Ranked 3rd in the NFL in total yards allowed, opposing offenses are averaging a lowly 251.5 total yards per game against the Panthers.

Both Ertz and Goedert will need to see heavy volume and cross the goal line to warrant a start in your fantasy lineups this week.

• Matthew Ward (@PsychWardFF)

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