Welcome to the BRoto Weekly DFS article! Here we are going to identify some of our favorite plays/fades and try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Hope you all had a good week last week because WE SURE DID! #printfest. Let’s get started with the halloween edition of Clay’s DFS Corner!
Games to target:
1. MIA @ BUF - O/U- 49.5 (The house that says “take multiple pieces of candy”)
Implied totals: MIA: 18; BUF: 31.5
2. TEN @ IND - O/U- 51 (The house that gives out full-sized candy bars)
Implied totals: TEN: 26; IND: 25
3. TB @ NO - O/U- 50 (The house that sets out a bucket of candy and says “help yourself”)
Implied totals: TB: 27.5; NO: 22.5
Top plays GPP:
QB: Justin Herbert (Sour Patch Kids) ($7900 FD): Herbert makes a great recency bias play. Everyone’s last memory was of him being destroyed by the Ravens defense. With a week to rest up, he could have low rostership and turn from sour to sweet in your GPP lineup.
QB: Trevor Lawrence (Sweet tarts) ($6700 FD): Cheap and gets the job done. Lawrence has averaged 15 or more fantasy points over the past three weeks. Although his rushing dropped off against Miami, in weeks 2-4 Lawrence had 6 or more rushing attempts including two rushing TDs. The sweetest part is Lawrence gets a putrid Seattle defense.
RB: Zack Moss (Warheads) ($6100 FD): Moss has been hit or miss this season just like Warheads. Sometimes they fizz flavorfully, sometimes they don’t. What I like about Moss is (unfortunately) the absence of Dawson Knox. Knox and Moss were being used heavily in the red zone, especially in the game against the Texans. Moss also tends to be a good play when the Bills are heavy favorites (-13.5 at the moment). Currently, Moss is top 12 among RBs in red zone opportunities, seeing 3 or more red zone carries in all games except week 5. He also has back-to-back games of 4 targets.
WR: Emmanuel Sanders (Charleston Chew) ($6700 FD): Both have been around forever and both deliver. The Bills have a 31.5 implied team total and Sanders has held steady at a 17% target share or greater in 4 out 6 games. You can also add Beasley (Milk Duds) at $6100 FD to this group.
TE: Dan Arnold (Candy Corn) ($4900 FD): Since joining the Jaguars, Arnold has led the TE group in target share. He’s also had a snap share greater than 60% the last two games for JAX. Arnold is a nice cheap option and draws the 4th worst team in points allowed to TE in the Seahawks.
D/ST: TEN (Airheads) ($3900): Lately, the TEN defense has improved to bend but not break, just like Airheads. They held KC to only 3 points last week, certainly an impressive feat, and they did it like an old Billy Joel song: Pressure. Per pro football reference, the Titans are:
5th in pressure rate at 28%
lead the league in pressures with 84
4th in hurry rate at 14.3%
3rd in total number of hurries caused
The Indy O-line is banged up and an opportunity for TEN to stranglehold the division is at stake.
Top cash fades:
QB: Jalen Hurts (Fireball) ($8400 FD): Fireballs are okay, initially, then the flavor fades and you’re stuck with nothing but a burning cinnamon mouth, kind of like Hurts. Don’t get me wrong he’s been great (22 or more fantasy points in every game this season), but the chance that Hurts gets pulled for Minshew has increased. Local beat reporters are speculating its more of a “when” than “if” Minshew will start. Fade Hurts and pass on the Fireballs this Halloween.
RB: Joe Mixon (Now and Later) ($7600 FD): The thing about Now and Laters is that they look decent but lack taste and then you can’t get rid of the taste as it absorbs into your teeth. Mixon always seems like a good play, then you plug him in your lineup and watch him disappoint. Mixon has a paltry 7.5% target share, ranks 31st in yards per carry, and 47th in points per opportunity. To add to that, Mixon just about split carries with Perine last week (12-11). Will Cincy clown-hammer the Jets to the point they rest Mixon and let Perine and Evans do work? Seems like a trap spot. Avoid Mixon and Now and Laters.
WR: Calvin Ridley (Charms Blow Pop) ($7000 FD): Much like a blow pop, on the exterior Ridley appears like a good play:
21.1% target share
5th in redzone opportunities
The problem is the abysmal 10.02 aDOT he is currently sporting. Ridley ranks 57th in big plays with only 3, not getting the big downfield plays and that were a big part of his value in the past. He has no games with 100 yards after posting 8 such games in 2020.
TE: Cole Kmet (Bit-O-Honey) ($4700 FD): Usually in life, we strive to try everything but bit-O-honey is NOT one of them (gross). This offense is bad, Nagy is bad, Fields is bad, the entire Bears organization is gross. Sure, Kmet has 4 or more targets in 4 of 5 games but when plugging in TE in cash or GPP we want TD’s. The Bears have never heard of the endzone, it’s a myth to them. Do like the Bears do with the end zone and avoid at all costs.
D/ST DEN: (Peanut Butter Kisses) ($4100 FD:) At Halloween, we all want the good candy. Unfortunately, there will always be that encounter with the trashiest candy of them all, Peanut Butter Kisses. To be honest this Broncos defense has been awful. They have 15 sacks on the season which sounds decent, until you find out that 5 of them were against the Jets. The Broncos are 15th in pressure % per pro football reference as well as 18th in total pressures and 15th in sacks. They aren’t getting to the QB unless its Zach Wilson. Avoid this defense and peanut butter kisses like the plague.
Top plays Cash:
QB: Josh Allen (Reese’s cup w/ Reese’s pieces) ($8800 FD): Allen is the elite cash option this week.
QB: Stafford (Snickers) ($8200 FD): Stafford has been a machine, with only 1 game with less than 2 or more TD passes. He’s also had 20+ FD points in all his games except two. If Tyrod Taylor plays, I like Stafford even more due to game script. Much like Snickers, Stafford will leave your FanDuel lineup satisfied.
ESPN
QB: Matt Ryan (Bottle Caps) ($7200 DK): The Falcons have given up on running the ball and Ryan is chucking the ball around the yard (just not as deep as he used to). He’s had 40 or more passing attempts in 4 out of his last 5 games and I expect that to continue against Carolina. Ryan has also thrown 2 or more passing TDs in every game this year except the 1st game of the season. Just like Bottle Caps, Ryan has become ol’ reliable in fantasy lately.
QB: Trevor Lawrence (see GPP section)
RB: Derrick Henry (Full-sized Hershey bar) ($10500 FD): There’s not much to say about Henry. Just like full-sized Hershey bars, they cost a little extra, but you get a lot in return. Henry has had 20+ carries in every game except one on the season. He’s still getting a little receiving work and went for 113 yards against this same Colts team in week 3.
RB: DeAndre Swift (Twix) ($7900 FD): Twix are delicious and you essentially get 2 candy bars for the price of one. Swift has received 10+ carries in 4 of his last 5 games but his receiving is a cheat code. He’s had 5 or more targets in every game this season along with 2 games of 10+ targets. With no alpha WR on the roster, Swift will continue to thrive and give you dual production just like that delicious Twix.
RB: Damien Harris (M&M) ($6900 FD): Harris gets to face the run-funnel that is the Chargers defense. Harris has excelled and produced back-to-back 100-yard games with TDs in each. Similar to M&M’s, we know what to expect with Harris, bulk of the ground work with TD upside.
WR: Cooper Kupp (Giant Reese’s Cup) ($9200 FD): Much like a Giant Reese’s Cup, cost isn’t a concern due to the delicious taste. That’s what Kupp is, he might have to reach Derrick Henry prices for me not to play him. He’s averaging 10+ targets per game and has rapport with Stafford and just can’t be stopped. Kupp is 1st in the following categories:
Targets- 81
Receptions- 56
Target share- 33.3
Receiving TDs- 9
Big Plays- 14
Red zone opportunities- 16
WR: Jaylen Waddle (Milk Duds) ($5900 FD): Boy, I don’t think anyone was more excited for Tua to be back than Waddle. Waddle commanded 13 targets last week and I expect him to continue to be involved in the offense with ATL up next. Like Milk Duds, he comes with plenty of balls, but the quality of the candy can leave something to be desired.
WR: Brandin Cooks (Skittles) ($6000 FD): This play definitely looks better if Tyrod Taylor plays (he’s Questionable at the moment). Cooks has dominated the Texans’ target share, coming in at 17.2%, 30.2%, and 21.9%, respectively. Houston will have to throw to keep pace with the Rams.
TE: Kyle Pitts (Nerds) ($6800 FD): The breakout is happening all at once, just like eating Nerds. Pitts has gone over 100 yards in back-to-back weeks and it doesn’t seem like its going to stop. His target share has stayed above 20% the last three weeks and the Falcons have a 24.75 team implied total.
TE: Mike Gesicki (Hot Tamales) ($6300 FD): Much like Pitts, Gesicki has been red hot lately. With the Dolphins giving up on the run game, Gesicki has been the beneficiary. He’s had 24 targets over the past three weeks and has turned it to fantasy gold. MIA will have to play catch up with the Bills and Gesicki should stay hot.
D/ST: LAR, BUF, CIN (Chex Mix): Whatever you pull out of the bag will make you happy
Lone-ranger play:
WR: Marquez Callaway (Mystery Flavored Dum-Dums) ($5900 FD): You never know what flavor you are going to get when you uncover Callaway but this could be a blue-raspberry type of week. This Bucs pass defense has not been good. Certainly, Kamara will give them fits but Callaway has 15 targets over his last two games, maybe a sign of life for the Saints passing offense. I expect Callaway to at least hit pay dirt once.
Final thoughts:
Bills and Rams onslaught stacks are nice options this week considering their opponents.
Keenan Allen has had a few down weeks despite still getting target volume. He makes a nice GPP play with Mike Williams expected back.
Best of luck in Week 8 and Happy Halloween!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.