Was 2021 a “down” year for QB1s?

I drafted Dak Prescott this season. Despite his record-breaking performances for the Cowboys franchise, I couldn’t help but to be frustrated with his weekly performances. That got me thinking about a question that hasn’t left my mind since Dak lost me my playoff matchup: Was 2021 a “down” year for QB1s?

NFL.com

To assess this question, I will analyze the past seven years’ worth of consistency data for the top-12 QBs per season, beginning in 2015. All consistency data is available on the Fantasy Football by BRoto App (The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store)!

Consistency

Perhaps to some surprise, based on the accumulated data, 2015 is tied for 2nd fewest QB1 finishes. Only two QBs—the GOAT, of course, and Tom Brady—finished with ten or more QB1 performances.   

Wow! Right out of the gate 2016 had double the amount of QBs with double-digit QB1 performances. With the strong number of QB1 performances (tied for 2nd most QB1 performances across the seven-year sample), the 2016 QBs also put up the second-fewest QB2 performances and the second-most QB3 performances. On to 2017.

2017 is all over the map, especially with the QB2 performances. 2017 led all other seasons with the fewest QB1 performances, even despite four QBs having 10 QB1 performances. That’s because 2017 had the most QB2 outputs of any season, thanks to Drew Brees and his eleven QB2 games.

 Enter Patrick Mahomes, and the rest is history. 2018 recorded the most QB1 performances of this seven-year stretch. As you would expect, with the increased number of QB1 performances, 2018 was tied for the fewest QB2 performances. All credit can’t be given to Mahomes, however, as six different QBs had ten or more QB1 weeks.

Sheesh. After an electric 2018, QB consistency fell back down to earth sharply in 2019. 2019 saw the second-least QB1 performances in the seven-year sample.

In 2020, the QB2 finishes again were up again (2nd most in this study). As a result, 2020 had the third-least QB1 finishes—just behind 2019.

Hindsight check before heading into 2021:

These charts tell me that 2018 may have created lofty expectations for QBs that, simply, cannot be matched. 2019 and 2020 had fewer, or the same, QB1 performances than 2015 and 2016, despite the emergence of more young, dual-threat QBs. Perhaps I should have had lesser expectations for all QBs—including my nemesis, Dak Prescott—heading into 2021. Let us see how this past season fared.

While I hoped for an uptick in consistency from the previous two years, 2021 provided us with the most QB3 performances since 2018. Unfortunately, there were eight less QB1 performances than in 2018.  As such, 2021 tied for the third-fewest QB1 performances in the sample.

Takeaway:

In the graph above, we can better see the fluctuations of consistency from year-to-year. 2017 and 2019 were fairly similar, with an outlier 2018 sandwiched between. There was a significant drop in QB3 performances from years 2016 to 2017, and it seems to have leveled off in the low teens.

Perhaps surprising in what many call the “golden-age for passing,” is that there is a clear decline in the number of QBs with double-digit QB1 performances.  

When should we draft QBs?

For the longest time, taking a QB late was the way to go. In the past two to three years, however, there’s been more chatter about taking a QB early. Considering that only two to four QBs are likely to finish with double-digit QB1 performances, however, I don’t believe that drafting a QB early is worth it.

Over the past seven years, the number of QB1 finishes for a top-12 QB ultimately settles around eight. That means that there will be another eight weeks where your premium QB might finish as a QB 2 or 3. That does not seem ideal for high-round capital considering the trade-off for what positions you are passing on for QB.  

2018 seems like an outlier. The rest of the data tells us that you’re likely better off waiting for a QB.

By Clay Jones

The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start sit tool, player cards, statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.