The age of sports betting is finally upon us! Nearly every state in the US has legalized sports betting in recent years and it is a super exciting time to get involved. Here, I am going to give some insight to my favorite futures for the 2021 NFL Season.
Division Champions
AFC South Division Champions
TENNESSEE TITANS: -115
This division is a lock. If you’re an active member of the BRotosphere you know that this was already the most efficient offense in the league (check out why with Ryan Tannehill’s True Throw Value here), and they just added Julio Jones to join Derrick Henry and AJ Brown.
Now lets consider the Titans’ competition: Add this to The Texans are the favorite to be the worst team in the league; the Jaguars have a rookie Head Coach and Quarterback, and their first round pick is out for the season; and the Colts downgraded to an injured Carson Wentz at Quarterback. There is zero doubt in my mind that the Titans come out on top of this division. Pay the -15 Vegas premium happily because your money is coming right back to you.
NFC West Division Champions
LA RAMS: +190
Last season the Rams high powered defense is what carried them to the playoffs—Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and company were a force to be reckoned with. Now, in 2021, Head Coaching genius Sean McVay gets to upgrade the game manager talents of Jared Goff to career underrated superstar Matthew Stafford. With plenty of passing weapons to utilize and a defense that will get them quickly back on the field, there is no doubt that this offense will take a significant step forward.
Now lets consider the Rams’ competition: The San Francisco 49ers are returning to health but have a rookie QB who is likely to start at some point in the season; the Arizona Cardinals made defensive improvements and Kyler Murray is returning from his shoulder woes; and the Seattle Seahawks may be an offensive powerhouse after the departure of Brian Schottenheimer. This division has a good chance to put three teams in the playoffs but fear not—a division with four good teams will likely cannibalize itself, and the cream of the crop will always rise to the top. The defending West Champion Rams are too good a value at nearly 300% ROI to not peg as the favorite, and you should take them confidently.
AFC North Division Champions
PITTSBURGH STEELERS: +500
Sports betting is not always about what will happen, but is rather about finding the value of what has a good chance to happen. The Steelers have always had a good defense, and I have no concerns that that will change. Reports are indicating that despite Big Ben being a year older, his down year last year was largely due to a shoulder injury that is in a much better state going into 2021. With three excellent targets in the passing game—JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool—a great redzone TE threat in Eric Ebron, and an elite college producer and national champion in Najee Harris inheriting the storied Steelers workhorse RB role, this offense has a chance to return to peak form. The Ravens are great, the Browns are good, and the Bengals have upside, but +500 is impossible to pass up. I won’t stake my reputation on it, but there is excellent value to be found here.
BONUS:
Feel free to parlay any of the above picks with the Chiefs, Bills, or Packers. Stand alone value for these three teams isn't great, but if you feel confident about any of them (I do in all three) go ahead and make a two-or-three legged parlay for an extra payout.
Win Totals
KC Chiefs o12.5 wins +110
David E. Klutho/Sports Illustrated
This one is fairly straightforward. The Chiefs have not lost more than 4 games since before the Mahomes era, and only lost 2 games last season. They are returning all of their key assets, and they went out and upgraded their offensive line after it cost them back to back Super Bowl titles last season. Now that the NFL has added an extra game, you only need the Chiefs to go 13-4 to cash this bet. Plus money for Patrick Mahomes and company to be good again, and they don’t even have to be as good as last year? Sign me up. This one’s easy money.
NYG Alt Win total o8 Wins +175
Call me crazy, call me a homer, call me whatever you want. The NFC East is up for grabs, and Big Blue is gunning for the title with a fury and a huge chip on their shoulders. There are two crucial pieces to this wager: generational talent Saquon Barkley is returning to the backfield, and the defense is criminally underrated. Daniel Jones’ passer rating is over 14 points better when Saquon is on the field and his TD/Int ratio improves from 12/13 to 23/9. Barkley is an elite difference maker on the field even when he is not touching the ball because of the way the defense has to react to his presence.
As for Jones, a third year leap may be wishful thinking, but Jones has shown flashes of supreme athleticism and talent. The addition of Kenny Golladay gives Jones an alpha target for the first time ever and Jones will have to put up or shut up this season.
Now on to the defense: the Giants allowed only 5.3 yards per play last season, a sneaky top-10 finish under first year DC Patrick Graham. James Bradberry is easily a top 5 cornerback in the NFL. Now, after adding Jabrill Peppers, Logan Ryan, and a second year draft pick steal in Xavier McKinney, this defensive secondary can go toe to toe with anyone in the NFL. Linebacker Blake Martinez is casually leading the NFL in tackles over the last 4 seasons, and Defensive Tackle Leonard Williams had a career year last year with 11.5 sacks and 30 QB hits. Put it all together and this unit, at the minimum, should be in discussion for a top-10 defense overall. PFF has them ranked 17th.
What does this all mean? This team won 6 games last season without Saquon Barkley and in the first year of a brand new coaching regime. An 8-9 finish will push your wager back to you, and 9-8 cashes out. Don’t overthink it. The Giants are no Schmucks!
AZ Cardinals o8.5 wins EV
The Arizona Cardinals looked like the most high powered offense in the league last season before Kyler Murray suffered a shoulder injury and was forced into an awful combination of passing less and scrambling less in order to preserve health. Fully healthy once again and boasting improvements on defense, this team only needs to break .500 to cash this bet. If you are high on the Cardinals even a little bit, an even money bet here feels like a safe play.
Super Bowl
Chiefs vs. Packers Super Bowl +2500
As previously stated, this is about the value of this pick and its likelihood. If you haven't been following the Aaron Rodgers offseason saga, let me fill you in with what is important to this wager: Aaron Rodgers felt he has been disrespected by the Packers organization for a long time. He will not be returning to Green Bay next year. The last time we saw Aaron Rodgers enter a season with a chip on his shoulder (literally last season), he messed around and won the MVP. After references to “The Last Dance” on his and Davante Adams’ Instagram stories, there is no doubt the Packers will make a run at the title this season. As for the Chiefs, they're the best team in the AFC, period. Obviously predicting the Super Bowl matchup is a dart throw but the value at +2500 is super fun and very feasible.
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel (@michaelschissel)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.