Numerous variables go into the preparation of draft strategy and roster construction. Weighing and assessing all of the limitless outcomes that could affect your season is impossible. One variable I do believe to be vastly overlooked that can give fantasy managers a vital edge against the competition is a player’s proficiency to perform down the stretch, when it matters most.
This “stretch” is the final 3 weeks of the NFL regular season, otherwise known as the fantasy playoffs. You don’t just need someone to get you to the dance but to help you take home the crown. It is never too early to look ahead in your research. Understanding the peaks and valleys of player production is crucial, especially in elimination matchups. The primary focus here will be a player’s closing ability as we analyze the top fantasy playoff producers from past seasons and their potential to recreate that success in 2021.
*All stats based on PPR scoring.
Lamar Jackson QB - Baltimore Ravens
After starting the 2020 season with erratic performances, Lamar Jackson caught fire to finish out his 3rd year in the NFL, reminding everyone why he was the youngest MVP in NFL history. Scoring 111.6 fantasy points from weeks 14-17, Lamar finished first overall in that window. Averaging only 175.5 yards per game in the air over that four game span, it was Jackson’s 84 rushing yards per game and 12 combined touchdowns that helped him win league titles for fantasy managers last year. A top ten QB during the fantasy playoffs in all three of his previous seasons, Lamar is a safe bet to repeat his elevated play at the season's end.
Narratives surrounding Lamar Jackson’s throwing inaccuracies should be ignored, as he was 18th in true completion percentage in 2020 with a top 15 true passer rating of 101.1 via playerprofiler.com, albeit on small samples. Jackson makes up for his lack of volume in the air with high efficiency, ranking top 12 in true throw value in 2020. Furthermore, Jackson’s highest true throw value ratings came during the 2020 fantasy playoffs, when fantasy managers relied on his production the most.
The Ravens' strength of schedule for a quarterback during weeks 15-17 in 2021 might deter some managers but Lamar is not your typical quarterback. Matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Los Angeles Rams may indeed cause wavering results in the Ravens passing game. It should be worth noting, however, that those three teams combined to allow for 116.9 rushing yards per game in 2021 as well a combined average of 24.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. These figures, coupled with Lamar’s continued dominance during the twilight of the NFL regular season, make his ceiling amidst the fantasy playoffs sky-high.
Alvin Kamara RB - New Orleans Saints
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On Christmas day 2020, the week of the fantasy football championship matchups, Alvin Kamara simultaneously played Santa Claus and the Grinch for clashing fantasy managers vying for a league title. A single game put fear in the hearts of managers with double-digit leads while delivering a miracle to those who thought they were dead in the water on their quest to the crown. With the highest-scoring single-game performance of the 2020 season at 56.5 fantasy points, Kamara etched himself into the NFL record books with an astonishing six rushing touchdowns, on 22 carries for 155 yards. This performance advanced Kamara past the playing field for RB1 overall status, the spot in which he would finish for 2020.
Finishing as RB1 overall in 2018 and RB5 overall in 2019, Kamara has averaged 37.2 fantasy points per game in week 16 over the past three seasons. Playing his first season in the NFL without future Hall of Famer Drew Brees, there is some question as to how Kamara and the New Orleans offense will acclimate to new leadership. Now with the news of alpha receiver Michael Thomas getting late off-season surgery for an ankle injury suffered in 2020, it is Kamara alone who will be expected to handle the volume in both the rushing and receiving department. Although Thomas is expected to make his return at some point late in the 2021 season, head coach Sean Payton and the New Orleans staff will have no choice but to gameplan for the season with Kamara as the lead offensive threat.
A friendly fantasy playoff schedule for 2021, Kamara and the Saints have the pleasure of facing three teams that allowed more than 20+ fantasy points on average to opposing running backs last season. New Orleans competes against division rivals and defending Super Bowl champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 15, followed by a week 16 matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Two formidable all-around defenses, the Bucs and ‘Phins allowed 22.5 and 23.3 fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2020, providing a stable floor for those banking on Kamara’s output. Finally, Kamara has the most tantalizing matchup of any top-tier running back during the fantasy championship week. New Orleans finishes off the fantasy season in week 17 against the Carolina Panthers, a defense that allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game in the NFL to opposing running backs in 2020 at 29.5.
The volume is guaranteed. The matchups come with little risk. The late production is elite. With a proven track record of week 16 success, the stage is set for Kamara to continue as one of the top overall options during the 2021 fantasy postseason.
Davante Adams WR - Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams is as close to sure money as you can get for a wide receiver in the definitive weeks of the fantasy season. Posting finishes of WR1, WR8, and WR6 over the past three years, Adams stands alone as the only active wide receiver with three top-12 finishes during week 16. Although it was Alvin Kamara’s Christmas miracle game that took centerstage, Adams had a performance for the ages as well in week 16 of 2020, catching 11 passes for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on a snowy afternoon in Wisconsin. Adams’ 43.2 points ended an electric season that had the Packers’ wideout finishing 8th overall in fantasy points with a 26.3 points per game average, tops amongst all receivers in 2020.
Working as Green Bay’s uncontested alpha in the receiving game, Adams paired his exceptional target share percentages with exquisite efficiency and production. Ranking first in the league in true target value for 2020, Adams’ 8.01 rating sits a full two points ahead of Travis Kelce, who ranked 2nd in that metric. The Packers added no true threats to Adams’ targets this offseason, giving Davante an infinite ceiling to produce under. With the question of reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers’ status with the team finally answered, Adams can set his sights on returning to the rapport that led this duo to the NFC Championship.
The road to Green Bay’s return to the conference championship will have to stop in Baltimore, Cleveland, and Minnesota from weeks 15-17. The Cleveland Browns travel to Lambeau to meet the Packers in week 16. An exciting matchup for Davante Adams against a defense that gave up the second-most fantasy points per game on average to receivers in 2020. Bookended by two teams that pride themselves on defense in the Baltimore Ravens in week 15 and the Minnesota Vikings in week 17. Presenting the tougher matchups on the docket, those defenses allowed only 35.5 fantasy points per game to opposing receiving corps in 2020. Adams’ alpha role and target share should be enough to garner the bulk of the points permitted by any of these teams and he remains a surefire candidate to help lockdown your fantasy championships this season.
Travis Kelce TE - Kansas City Chiefs
Did you expect to see any other name at TE on this list? Arguably the most consistent fantasy producer of any position in the NFL, Travis Kelce has only one weekly finish below TE6 in weeks 14-16 since 2018, a true outlier for the superstar. Kelce leads all active tight ends in every conceivable metric in that span. This late-season transcendence dates back as far as 2016 when Kelce put his fantasy league winning reputation on the map that year in a Week 16 performance that produced 33.0 fantasy points on a 140 yard, 11 catch trouncing of the Denver Broncos.
Drafting Travis Kelce at his average redraft ADP of 11th overall in 2021 may appear to be a steep investment for fantasy managers but do not fear the cost. Kelce’s statistical and positional advantage is far beyond any player in fantasy football. A 62.1 point gap separated Kelce from the 2nd ranked fantasy tight end, Darren Waller. An even steeper 143 point gap separated Kelce from the player that finished 3rd at the position, T.J. Hockenson. Kelce’s season-long output was later mimicked in the twilights of the 2020 season, as he averaged 4.2 fantasy points more than Waller from weeks 14-16, and 8.8 points more than a scorching hot Logan Thomas, who finished with the 3rd highest average in that timeframe.
On paper, Kelce appears to have one of the toughest playoff slates in fantasy football for a tight end in 2021. The Kansas City Chiefs have a three-game set against three defenses rostering all-pro safeties during this year’s fantasy postseason. Week 15 against Derwin James and the Los Angeles Chargers, week 16 against Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Pittsburgh Steelers, and week 17 against Jessie Bates III and the Cincinnati Bengals. These three safeties combined to help their teams concede less than 10 points per game on average to opposing tight ends. Regardless of the defense, Kelce is a bulletproof fantasy producer, and a nightmare for coverage assignments, making him immune to all matchup deficits.
D/ST- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay’s projected 3rd ranked defensive line by PFF in 2021 receives a healthy upgrade in nose tackle Vita Vea to round out an already frightening front seven anchored by the lethal Ndamukong Suh and backed by four all-pro linebackers in Devin White, Lavonte David, Jason Pierre Paul, and Shaq Barrett. Things don’t get easier for opposing offenses in the second level. Ranked 5th in expected points allowed per pass attempt in 2020, Tampa Bay ensures their front seven with budding young talent in coverage. A projected top ten secondary mixed with a stacked front line makes the Buccaneers a set-it-and-forget-it defensive unit in fantasy.
Tampa Bay has the most inviting schedule of any defensive unit for the fantasy playoffs. The Buccaneers start their 2021 fantasy playoff schedule against the New Orleans Saints in Week 15. NOLA has yet to figure out who will be the starting QB for the Week 1 of the season, let alone the 15th. Both of the Saints' options of Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston have had turnover troubles in the past, whether it be fumbles from Hill or interceptions from Winston. The Buccaneers will capitalize on any mistake in this matchup as they look to build confidence heading into the playoffs. Next, the Buccaneers travel to the home of the Carolina Panthers to face an offensive unit led by Sam Darnold. With a bottom-ranked defense themselves, the Panthers' game script for that contest would appear to be pass-heavy while they play from behind, leaving Tampa Bay to feast on an inconsistent Darnold. Lastly, as if it were scripted, Tampa Bay faces the New York Jets on the road in week 17. A rookie head coach in Robert Saleh, a rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson, and one of the lowest-ranked offensive lines in the NFL, add up to equal the safest defensive matchup imaginable during fantasy championship week.
Coming off a resounding beat down of Patrick Mahomes and the turbocharged Kansas City offense during Super Bowl LV, there should be no doubt in this Tampa Bay defensive unit's ability to perform late in the season.
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By Matthew Ward (@PsychWard16)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.