What to Expect from the 2018 Alabama RB Room

The 2018 Alabama Crimson Tide running back room consisted of three players with high draft capital and high expectations in the NFL: Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and Najee Harris.  Jacobs and Damien Harris are entering their third season in the NFL while Najee Harris will be making his rookie debut. 

Each of these Alabama RBs have unique circumstances when it comes to the team they are playing on and their perceived fantasy value heading into the 2021 season. I will be highlighting each back to determine whether or not they will have a successful fantasy season and will be worth the pick at their respective ADPs. 

Damien Harris

In 2018, Damien Harris was the veteran of the Crimson Tide backfield, headlining as the senior of the group. He was then drafted by the New England Patriots in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL draft.  

In his 2020 sophomore season, Harris totaled 137 rushes for 691 yards and two touchdowns. His total statistics at the end of the season do not tell the whole story, though. 

Harris averaged 5.0 yards per carry, despite the fact that he faced the highest average number of defenders in the box in the league at 7.4.  Moreover, In the BRoto Exclusive rushing yards over expected (RYOE) stat, which compares expected rushing yards to the number of actual rushing yards of an attempt, Damien Harris finished tenth among all RBs. This tenth overall finish placed him ahead of players like Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. 

So then what was the issue with Damien Harris last season? His red zone usage.

Last season Harris only received 11 carries inside the 10 yard line while his quarterback, Cam Newton, had 31 attempts. When Mac Jones inevitably takes over at some point this season, things will then change. Harris will likely be the favorite for red zone work and his QB won’t triple the number of attempts that he will see.  

Along with this likely uptick in red zone work, there have been many reports out of New England Camp stating that Harris is the number one back and is primed for a big season. He is currently being drafted as the RB33 and the 83rd player off the board according to Sleeper ADP.  This is a great value for a starting running back with plausible top 24 upside. 

Josh Jacobs 

Josh Jacobs was a junior in 2018 at Alabama, forgoing his senior season to enter the NFL Draft. He was then drafted 24th overall by the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2019 draft as the first running back selected. 

In his first two seasons in the NFL, Jacobs ran for over 1,000 yards in each and totaled seven and 12 touchdowns in 2019 and 2020, respectively. In 2020, however, Jacobs’ yards per carry dropped from a solid 4.8 to a paltry 3.9, averaging almost a full yard less each time he was handed the ball.

Jacobs’ fantasy success relied heavily on volume last season as well, as his 273 rush attempts was third in the league. He was also buoyed by his twelve touchdowns, good for fourth in the league. In BRoto exclusive stat points per opportunity excluding touchdowns (PPOxTD), Jacobs ranked 68th out of 76 qualifying running backs. That means that, without TDs, Jacobs was expected to produce the same amount of fantasy points per touch as Jamycal Hasty and LaMical Perine. 

Now, the Raiders brought in Kenyan Drake, signing him to a two year, $11 million dollar contract. In doing so, they gave starter money to a running back who was top five in the league in red zone opportunities in 2020. This signing has the potential to take a lot of zap away from Josh Jacobs' value this season. Moreover, an area where Jacobs has not been used so far in his career is the receiving game, and with the addition of Kenyan Drake, who has several seasons with pass catching success, it seems he may even be less utilized in this area of the game. 

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Jacobs’ current ADP is RB20 and the 36th player off the board. This is extremely early for a player that is not used in the receiving game and will likely see a decrease in rushing volume, especially in the red zone, this year. 

Najee Harris

The youngest of the group, Najee Harris was a sophomore during the 2018 season at Alabama. Harris ended up staying at Alabama for his senior season and was drafted in the 2021 NFL draft at 24th overall to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  

For fantasy purposes, Harris was drafted to the perfect team. The Steelers did lose multiple starting offensive linemen in the offseason due to retirement and free agency, but their new, more youthful O-line may be ready to prove critics wrong.

The Steelers have always been a team that provides a lot of volume for their starting running back. Whether it's Le’Veon Bell, James Conner, or Benny Snell, they have always given their backs a workhorse load with tons of touches. 

Last season, Benny Snell started three games for the Steelers and in two of those three games he received 16 and 18 carries, with four targets in each. It can be argued that the Steelers were crazy for involving Snell this much but it cannot be argued that the Steelers love to get their running backs involved. 

Enter Najee Harris, who has the perfect skill set for this offense.  He is a fantastic runner but he is also great in the receiving game, with great size and athleticism. Moreover, the top two player comps on the Fantasy Football by BRoto app for Najee Harris are Derrick Henry and Melvin Gordon.  
Harris will receive an incredible amount of volume this season for the Steelers and he has the skills to produce at a high level.His ADP is currently RB14 as the 25th overall player off the board. Even though he is a rookie, I believe he can return value on this ADP and I will be drafting him at this spot.

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By Gianluca Martini (@_gmartini)