True Values are out now! The only statistic on earth that quantifies the worth of a target! You can check out QB True Throw Value, RB True Target Value, WR True Target Value, and TE True Target Value when setting your lineups this week (You may just see True Values pop up in this article as well)!
True values also do all the work for you, as QB TTV can be understood as Adjusted Fantasy Points per Attempt and RB, WR, and TE TTV provide expected fantasy points for each player!
Without further ado:
SLEEPERS:
Rashard Higgins (WR - CLE)
The real “Hollywood,” come on down!
Hollywood Higgins has broken out these last couple weeks, and it is time to take notice. In the seven games without OBJ this season, Higgins has put up stat lines of 6/110, 1/14, 3/48, 3/65, 1/15, 6/95/1, 6/68/1. Three great games, four awul games. I assume this is the reason why Higgins is still being ranked outside the top 40 WRs, but that is just bad process. Let us not forget that Cleveland went through a four game stretch recently in which three of the games were heavily effected by monsoon-like weather. Take those three games out of the equation and we have three boom weeks for Higgins and only one dud - 6/110, 1/15, 6/95/1, 6/68/1. To break it down even further (Just one more time I promise), here are Higgins’ stat lines with OBJ and Khadarel Hodge out of the equation - 6/110, 6/95/1, 6/68/1. Now that's what I’m talking about.
Dawg Pound Daily
Full disclosure, Khadarel Hodge has practiced in a limited capacity this week and has a shot at returning but I am not as worried about him as I once was. Higgins has proven his worth on the field and Donovan Peoples-Jones has basically taken all of Hodge’s snaps and Higgins’ production has not been effected.
Furthermore, take out the monsoon weather games and only the Green Bay Packers have averaged more touchdowns per game than the Cleveland Browns (Mike Clay/ESPN). That offense is rolling and Baker Mayfield has been on a tear.
For the cherry on top, James Bradberry, one of the best coverage cornerbacks in all of football this season, has been placed on the covid list and is out for this weekend’s game. The Giants do not have another cornerback on Bradberry’s level. This is a huge loss for the secondary and a big boost for Cleveland pass catchers.
Time to put your trust in Hollywood.
Michael Petropoulos (@BRotoFFMike)
Irv Smith Jr. (TE - MIN)
Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and the rest. That’s the reality of the TE landscape in fantasyland today. Sure, Mark Andrews, Rob Gronkowski, and others have been solid, but even the more consistent options have had their struggles. That’s why, if you’re in the fantasy football semifinals, you may still need a TE to stream. Irv Smith is set up for success this week.
With Kyle Rudolph ruled out again, Irv Smith is the #1 receiving TE for the Vikings this week. While Tyler Conklin will play a decent amount of snaps, he is mostly a blocking TE and Smith should still see his fair share of targets. With Kirk Cousins playing super efficient football, he’s fourth in True Throw Value this season, Smith could produce TE1 numbers on minimal targets. This was true just last week, when Smith went 4-63-1 on four targets from Cousins and finished as the TE3 on the week.
This is also a great matchup for Smith. The Chicago Bears have been awful against the TE1 recently. In fact, if Akins didn’t allow a wide-open TD to get lost in the sun last week, the Bears would be going into Minnesota with a seven-game streak of allowing a top-12 TE finish—this includes Kyle Rudolph’s top-12 finish in week 10 (a game that Irv Smith did not suit up for).
In a tough TE landscape, Irv Smith Jr. could be the TE you need to take you to the fantasy promised land.
Jason Petropoulos (@BRotoFFJason)
Gus “The Bus” Edwards (RB - BAL)
Let’s get one thing straight, Gus “The Bus” Edwards continues to run over everything in his path this season . . . and this week could be his best game yet.
Limited carries have held back Edwards’ hyper-efficient play, but with more touches possibly opening up and a date with the lowly Jaguars on the horizon, the stars could finally be aligning for Edwards.
AP Photo/Nick Wass
For the third straight season, the third-year back out of Rutgers is averaging at least 5 YPC, tied for 7th among RBs in 2020, and his career high 6 TDs is also in the top-15 of NFL runners. What separates Edwards is his ability to do just that, separate. Edwards trails only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb in big runs (20+ yards) from the RB position despite only toting the rock 108 times this season.
It’s that limited work, as part of a three-headed backfield with JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram, that has made Edwards a fantasy afterthought this year. But things are looking up. For the first time all season, a healthy Ingram failed to record a single touch last week. Although Dobbins was the clear recipient of most of Ingram’s vacated snaps, Edwards was much more efficient in his touches, turning 8 touches into 53 yards and 2 TDs. All of a sudden, a dual backfield in the league’s most run-heavy offense sounds a lot better then a 3-way time share.
On top of the new opportunities in playing time comes the opportunity to play the Jaguars. The Jags have given up the 5th most fantasy points to RBs this season, surrendering the 3rd most rushing yards while allowing 15 TDs to RBs in 13 games.
In addition, the Jaguars have faced a shared backfield on 6 occasions this season, and 5 times the team they faced produced 2 top-30 RBs (ironically, the only time they didn’t allow dual top-30 finishes was to the Browns, when Kareem Hunt backed up Chubb’s RB4 week with an RB34 performance).
All the clues are pointing towards Gus the Bus running amok this week. I think he’s a solid flex player if you are in need.
Tim Petropoulos (@BRotoFFTim)
Lynn Bowden (WR/RB - MIA)
Lynn Bowden is probably not a name anyone expected to have in their lineups at all this year, especially in the fantasy playoffs. However, fantasy is a week-by-week game and anything can happen overnight. As of right now, Bowden is currently the only healthy starter for the Miami Dolphins receiving corps. DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant are both nursing injuries and are questionable at best for week 15, while Preston Williams is still on IR. Even so, the most significant injury for Bowden’s value might actually be tight end Mike Gesicki, who is expected to miss some time with a shoulder injury. Gesicki has played more as a receiver than a blocker this season, coming out of the slot on almost 71% of his snaps. Bowden is primarily a slot receiver so, if Gesicki is out, he should have the entirety of the slot snaps to his disposal. With each injury comes higher and higher value for Bowden, who has gained a sizable role in the Dolphins offense in recent weeks.
Bowden is currently listed as a “RB/WR” hybrid on all fantasy platforms, which adds strong flexibility throughout fantasy lineups. Since being activated in Week 12, Bowden has seen his snaps increase significantly each week - 31%, 44%, and 71%, respectively. With the snap increase has come increased production as well:
Week 12: 0 catches (1 target) - 0 points
Week 13: 4 catches for 41 yards (4 targets) / 1 rush for 11 yards - 7.2 points
Week 14: 7 catches for 82 yards (9 targets) / 1 rush for 2 yards / 0/1 passing - 11.9 points
It is evident that Bowden has quickly become a significant part of the Dolphins’ offensive game plan. The Dolphins are trying to put the ball in his hands in any way they can, including some trick plays where he’s been asked to pass the ball. For those who do not know, Bowden played 8 games at quarterback in his junior year at Kentucky—He is the ultimate swiss army knife for this Dolphins offense.
This week, the Dolphins face a stout Patriots defense, which on paper is unideal. However, with the recent volume Bowden is facing combined with the lack of health around him on the field, he has the potential to put up a solid game nonetheless. The Dolphins are going to continue to find clever ways to give him the ball. Bowden is a solid flex option this week.
Nick Beaulieu (@Beaulieu_Nick)
BUSTS:
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR - DET)
This is how I feel when I see Marvin Jones Jr. ranked as a top 30 Wide Receiver.
Jones has been inside the top 30 Wide Receivers just three times this season, while finishing with 7.8 fantasy points or less in seven of thirteen games. He also has played all of these games with Matthew Stafford at QB. Stafford is doubtful to play, folks, and Chase Daniel is mediocre at best. (EDIT: Matthew Stafford WILL be starting. The sentiment still holds. Jones Jr. is a flex play at best, though he is a safer option with Stafford at QB)
The best argument for Marvin Jones is his matchup against the porous Tennessee secondary. However, the matchup is not as great as it seems. Malcolm Butler actually has the 19th best coverage grade of all corners according to PFF, and Jones is expected to line up opposite of Butler for the majority of his snaps. Furthermore, Tennessee’s best corner, Adoree’ Jackson, is expected back after a lengthy injury absence.
Even if this was a tremendous matchup, Marvin Jones has let down fantasy managers in tremendous matchups this season. In his best matchups of the year against Jacksonville, Atlanta, Minnesota and Houston, Jones has averaged 4 receptions per game for just 45 yards and has scored one touchdown in all of those games combined.
Do me a favor and leave Marvin Jones on your bench this semifinal weekend.
Michael Petropoulos (@BRotoFFMike)
Ezekiel Elliot (RB - DAL)
Zeke has been carried by his name for far too long. In half PPR leagues, Zeke has finished outside of the top-24 RBs in six out of eight weeks. Why is it, then, that his Expert Consensus Ranking on FantasyPros for week 15 is RB19? That’s a question I don’t have an answer to.
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Call it coincidence, but those two games that I just discussed where Zeke ended within the top-24 were both on the road. This week, Dallas plays at home. What makes it worse is that their opponent is the San Francisco 49ers, who have allowed the fifth-fewest half PPR fantasy points to RBs this season. To make matters worse, Zeke has not practiced this week (as of this writing). He’s been limited to individual, contactless work but is expected to suit up on Sunday. Furthermore, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Tony Pollard’s ever increasing role continued to expand after Zele’s week of minimal practice.
You likely have better options than Ezekiel Elliot, even if their name value isn’t as enticing.
Jason Petropoulos (@BRotoFFJason)
DeVante Parker (WR - MIA)
Last week, Jason outlined exactly why Parker + Tua is a matchup to avoid. This week, there is even more reason to hate Parker: He has a rookie QB throwing to him, with Bill Belichick as the opposing coach.
Bill Belichick makes a living destroying rookie QBs, most recently, he shut down a red hot Justin Herbert. Now, Tua gets a matchup with a Patriots team desperate to keep its playoff hopes alive.
Since week 6, Parker has finished with 15 or more points twice. Not coincidentally, those two games were games Ryan Fitzpatrick played in.
Last week was rock bottom, as Parker did not catch a pass before leaving the game with an injury. This week could be more of the same, especially with the Belichick defense giving the rookie QB fits.
Parker is just the player I highlighted, but I am staying away from every single Dolphin this week.
Tim Petropoulos (@BRotoFFTim)
DJ Moore (WR - CAR)
DJ Moore has been one of the most volatile players in fantasy football this year. He has had six games this year with less than 8.1 fantasy points (6.5 PPG during those games) and six games with more than 11.8 fantasy points (17.4 PPG during those games). The most frustrating part of this rollercoaster production is that Moore rosterers do not know when it is safe to start him. For example, Moore put up his strongest showing of the year (23.3 points) versus Marcus Lattimore and the above-average Saints defense but also put up his second-worst game of the year (6.5 points) against the lowly Falcons defense. It seems the odds of DJ Moore providing a solid fantasy day comes down to that of a coin flip.
CBS Sports
The most significant reason for Moore’s unpredictability is his big play ability. Moore is averaging only 4 catches per game in 2020, yet he is averaging 18.5 yards per catch to make up for lack of volume. Moore has only surpassed 4 catches on three occasions, never surpassing 8 catches. Moreover, Moore scored double digit points in each of the three games where he caught more than 4 passes. It seems that the formula for DJ Moore to succeed the way rosterers want is if his volume entails 5 or more catches. Otherwise, he’d need to find the endzone on limited volume.
In his matchup with Jaire Alexander this week, Moore’s expectations should be tempered. Alexander has been one of best corners in the entire NFL this year, as he is currently allowing a completion percentage of only 41.1% and a QBR of just 60.3 when QBs target him. Considering that Moore plays heavily on the outside of the field, it is expected that he is shadowed by Alexander for a majority of the game. Coming off of COVID and facing one of the best corners in all of football, Moore should be in for a disappointing game.
Nick Beaulieu (@Beaulieu_Nick)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.