Teasers are the most underutilized type of bet. While others throw away their money on 8-leg parlays with either miniscule payouts or insurmountable odds, you can build your bankroll with a proven teaser strategy.
The best way to profit on teasers in the long-term is to focus exclusively on spreads using the “Wong Teaser” guidelines. In this two-leg, 6-point teaser, you are looking for favorites of -7.5/-8.5 and underdogs at +1.5/+2.5. Many suggest focusing on games with point totals below 49 because each point gained becomes much more valuable in what is expected to be a low-scoring match. Even if you cannot get those exact spread numbers, passing through key numbers like 3 and 7 ensures that you are putting yourself in the best position possible to profit.
Mix and match these teams and make your best teasers possible.
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5) O/U: 39.5
The Jets stink and water is wet. Joe Flacco is starting again after struggling in week 1, barely reaching 300 passing yards on 59 pass attempts. Browns QB Jacoby Brissett wasn’t stellar filling in for Deshaun Watson either, but he knows how to manage a game and manage he did. The Browns would have won in a more convincing fashion had they not allowed 17 points in the 4th quarter. The way the Jets win this game is by stopping Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground. They limited the Ravens to only 63 rushing yards and the 5th lowest rushing EPA/play in week 1 but that was against Kenyan Drake, Mike Davis, and Justice Hill. The Ravens were missing their two best RBs and Lamar Jackson wasn’t asked to run much either. Only four of his six carries were actual rushes, the other two were kneel downs to end the game. The Jets played great defense for most of the game but still got blown out after several bad mistakes caught up to them. This will be a closer game than last for the Jets, but they will still more than likely lose, presenting a great teaser opportunity. Tease the Browns down to a ML. The Jets cannot generate the offense to win, even if they can slow down Brissett for a few drives.
Themi’s Teaser: Browns -0.5
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) O/U: 40.5
In my Week 1 Takeaways article, I discussed the Steelers and how lucky they got last week despite looking like the same boring team as last year. DPOY TJ Watt is also out for 6 weeks, a massive blow to the defense. With home-field advantage dwindling across the league, this seems like a perfect bounce-back spot for the Patriots after falling to the division rival Dolphins in week 1 in a very uninspiring fashion. This is a winnable game for the Patriots, evidenced by Vegas setting them as two point favorites, but they are playing the same brand of boring football as Pittsburgh. They might be more polished but they lack the playmakers outside of the run game to tear up the Steelers. The Steelers defense is still above average without Watt, featuring DBs Minkah Fitzpatrick, Akhello Witherspoon, and Cameron Sutton, who all had interceptions against Joe Burrow in their week 1 win. LB Alex Highsmith also shined, forcing a fumble and totalling three sacks. Part of his success comes from OLs focusing on Watt, but the team plays with a mentality that always keeps games close against middle-of-the-pack opponents. This is not Kansas City in the playoffs, this is Mac Jones and Jakobi Meyers. Sure the Patriots can win, but it won’t be by much.
Themi’s Teaser: Steelers +8.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys O/U: 41.5
Sporting News
The Dallas Cowboys were awful on offense last week and now find themselves without franchise QB Dak Prescott. The offense finished dead last in both EPA/play and Football Outsiders’ DVOA to open their season. Cooper Rush, Dak Prescott’s uninspiring backup, now gets the tall task of facing a Bengals team that may be 0-1 at present but they kicked away the win twice in their opening game loss. Joe Burrow started heating up a bit too late but we saw glimpses of the same elite passing offense we saw in 2021. That is going to be a problem for Dallas. While they played solid defense in week 1, limiting the Buccaneers to only 19 points while finishing 16th in defensive EPA/play allowed, they were punished on the ground by Leonard Fournette who racked up 127 rushing yards on only 21 carries. Against another impressive offense with a myriad of weapons available, they need to somehow cover Ja’Marr Chase without giving too much room for RB Joe Mixon to break free. Then Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd can stop by to say hello as well. Micah Parsons and the rest of the defense may make things difficult for Joe Burrow once again but not enough to prevent the cover at -1.5.
Themi’s Teaser: Bengals -1.5
Washington Commanders (+1.5) @ Detroit Lions O/U: 48.5
Beating the closing line is key to consistent profits in football, especially when a new team becomes the favorite. Opening as 2.5 point favorites, the Commanders are now 2 point underdogs on the road against the Lions. I do not like to go against the grain much, but this is a silly spread. Do not expect Carson Wentz to throw 4 TDs against every team but expect more consistent scoring from Washington than in years past. Wentz has had an up-and-down career since being drafted 2nd overall by the Eagles, but he may finally shine in Washington with some great weapons around him. RB Antonio Gibson, the former College WR, set a new high in single-game targets with eight. His dual-threat ability makes him very dangerous when you pair him with a solid receiving room. A healthy Curtis Samuel was also a welcome surprise, finishing first on the team in targets and earning a PFF grade of 74.2, 8th highest amongst WRs. The biggest advantage comes in the trenches, though. Per ESPN Analytics, the Commanders are 2nd in pass rush win rate, while the Lions are dead last in pass block win rate. Both teams are bottom-5 in run stop win rate. The Commanders are talented enough to win here and the small spread reflects it. Giving them a one-score handicap is just insurance.
Themi’s Teaser: Commanders +7.5
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.