SLEEPERS
RB: Jamaal Williams (DET)
The Lions' running game looked fantastic in Week 1 against the Eagles in a close back-and-forth matchup. Jamaal Williams played a secondary role to lead back D’Andre Swift but showed serviceable upside with high-value touches on the goal line. Swift recorded 144 rushing yards on 15 attempts with one touchdown. It was the opposite half of the Lions' two-headed rushing attack, however, that was rewarded with two convenient touchdown opportunities inside the five-yard line. Williams has a defined and established role as the between-the-tackles bruiser with a potential increase in volume during the Lions' Week 2 matchup against the Commanders. Reports indicate that Swift will be a game-time decision after suffering a mild ankle sprain in the Lions’ loss. Williams has proven to be an adequate fantasy producer even when his running mate is healthy. A considerable increase in opportunity could lead to matchup-winning points for Williams. Facing off against a Commanders’ defense that allowed James Robinson to beat them down in his first game back from an achilles tear does not hurt.
- Matt Ward
WR: Drake London (ATL)
Credit: Curtis Compton / Curtis.Compton@
Drake London was admittedly impressive in his first outing as an NFL receiver. The rookie wideout tied generational tight end Kyle Pitts for the team lead in targets with 7 (21.21% share) against a notoriously difficult defensive matchup. London led the offense, catching five passes for 74 yards while having lockdown corner Marshon Lattimore and defensive nightmare Tyrann Mathieu draped over him for most of the contest. Furthermore, the Falcons were able to control the clock against the Saints for much of the matchup, taking a sizable lead late into the fourth quarter before Jameis Winston and company mounted a comeback. This game script left minimal targets on the table for the Falcons receivers as they attempted to run the time down to a victory. The team’s Week 2 matchup against the Rams should open up the passing game as the Falcons are expected to play from behind against the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Rams are reeling after a blowout loss to the Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 and will be looking to make a statement against one of the league’s lowest-rated defenses. A positive game script with increased passing volume spells wonderful things for the Falcons' newest top-10 pick. London draws another difficult coverage matchup on paper in his second game as an NFL pro but Jalen Ramsey and the Rams defense did concede touchdown receptions to three different Bills receivers in Week 1, exhibiting major flaws as a cohesive unit. Expect London to be the focal point of the Falcons’ passing attack as Pitts receives the shadow treatment from the Rams' top defenders.
- Matt Ward
TE: Hunter Henry (NE)
The tight end position can be a wasteland in fantasy football, especially when you don’t draft an elite top option. If you could not walk out of draft day with Kelce, Andrews, Pitts, Waller, or Kittle you may have to take a shot on streaming tight end options throughout the season. On any given week, there are always sleeper tight ends to plug and play into your lineup as you chase for a top 12 scorer. This week Hunter Henry has the exact upside that you’re looking for.
Henry was an absolute touchdown hog on the Patriots last season. The former Chargers standout established himself as the ultimate red zone threat for Mac Jones. In fact, he had the most receiving touchdowns for any tight end in 2021 with a whopping nine, setting a new career high.
He was a TE1 on seven different occasions last season. He had more TE1 finishes than TJ Hockenson, Zach Ertz, and Pat Freiermuth. Plus, he finished with the same amount of TE1 performances as Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, and Dallas Goedert. Henry is the perfect streaming option if you didn’t pay up during your draft. He carries TE1 upside without the built-in cost. Henry should slide right back into his high volume touchdown role in the Patriots offense in Week 2 against the Steelers.
Hayden Hurst just finished putting up a respectable performance against the Steelers' defense (5 catches for 46 yards). With Henry being the next TE up to bat, perhaps the initials “H.H.” will prove too much for the Steelers' defense.
He’s not going to explode for eight receptions and 75+ receiving yards but he has a real shot of scrounging up three receptions for 30+ yards and finding the endzone in Week 2. After the high-upside tight ends with elite target shares are gone, managers should search for touchdowns. The guy coming off a season with the most touchdowns for a tight end is a pretty good place to look. I’m starting Henry in multiple leagues this week with my fingers crossed that he can fall into the endzone just like he did in 2021.
- Boyd Armstrong
QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Matthew Stafford and the Rams looked abysmal in their 2022 debut. Stafford went 29/41 for 240 yards, 1 touchdown, and a whopping 4 turnovers, leading to a 31-10 stomping by the Buffalo Bills. These stats correlated to 10.8 fantasy points and a QB29 overall finish. While everyone else is ready to shun Stafford and company (excluding Cooper Kupp, of course), a Week 2 turnaround is certainly in the cards.
This week the Rams square off versus the Atlanta Falcons who allowed the 2nd most points per game to the QB position in 2021. Unsurprisingly, the Falcons did pretty much nothing to improve their defense heading into 2022 and already have their best defensive player, Deion Jones, on injured reserve to start the season. This poor defense allowed the shell of Jameis Winston to put up 21.66 fantasy points en route to a QB7 overall finish on the week. If anyone reading this is thinking about pivoting from Stafford this week, hold steady and keep him in lineups. The vast majority of the fantasy football population seems to have forgotten how much of a baller Matthew Stafford is, and their eyes will be opened up once again after he torches the Falcons in Week 2.
- Nick Beaulieu
BUSTS
RB: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
The Cowboys will enter Week 2 without several key offensive linemen and franchise quarterback Dak Prescott. A plethora of crucial injuries swept through the Cowboys' depth chart, leaving Cooper Rush to take snaps under center behind a haphazard offensive line. Every member of the offense can be downgraded until Prescott makes a full recovery and return. No one takes a bigger hit to their value and predicted outcome than Ezekiel Elliott. The perennial RB1 fantasy star is entering the twilight years of his career, with his efficiency metrics declining across the board. The losses on the offensive line will drastically impact Elliot’s rushing production. Limited red zone opportunities with Rush at quarterback and a struggling receiving corps will cap most of Elliott’s scoring equity. A presumed increase in passing work is no guarantee as those opportunities would likely fall to Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz should Rush be forced to check down often. Elliott is in a terrible situation as the drowning Cowboys try to keep their heads above water in a Week 2 contest against an imposing Bengals defense. The Bengals bottled up the Steelers running backs in a tough Week 1 loss, allowing just 30 combined yards on 13 carries to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The Cowboys may be forced to abandon the run game entirely if the Bengals get out to an early lead, leaving Elliott as a touchdown-dependent plodder void of meaningful volume.
- Matt Ward
WR: Robert Woods (TEN)
Getty Images
Robert Woods appeared to be a shell of his former self in the Titans' Week 1 opener against the Giants. In his first game back after season-ending knee surgery in 2021, Woods was out-snapped and out-targeted by both of his rookie teammates, Treylon Burks and Kyle Phillips. Philips led the team with six receptions for 66 yards on nine targets, with Burks catching three of five for 55 yards. The 30-year-old veteran was targeted twice, catching one pass for 13 yards in what should have been an easy matchup against a lowly Giants secondary. Woods is firmly third in the pecking order on a low-volume passing offense and is facing an even tougher defensive matchup in Week 2. The Titans leave the comfort of their home stadium to face off against the Bills on Monday Night Football. The Bills' defense conceded several quick passes for big gains to Cooper Kupp in Week 1 but effectively shut down the Rams' offense on every level. The veteran receiver will likely be utilized as a deep threat decoy, while the younger receivers get peppered with short-yardage targets.
- Matt Ward
TE: Cole Kmet (CHI)
After putting up a goose egg for fantasy managers in Week 1, Cole Kmet belongs outside the top-12 TEs. The weather in Chicago was terrible but he couldn’t bring in a single catch. Starting the season with a dud is not promising in the slightest and I’m nervous about starting him this week against the Packers, who just so happen to own Chicago, thanks to Aaron Rodgers.
In his 2022 season debut, Kmet did nothing of note for his team. He played 83% of the offensive snaps for the Bears but was only able to earn a 5.9% target share. That is wild. One of the philosophies that I like to follow is "good players earn targets." In Week 1, Kmet was out-targeted by fellow tight end Ryan Griffin, of all people.Griffin only played 53% of the snaps, yet doubled Kmets’ target share percentage with 11.8%. Neither set of statistics should be looked at as quality examples of what you want from a tight end but one of these players is being started in a handful of leagues this week and shouldn’t be.
Perhaps I’d be more forgiving towards Kmet for his Week 1 performance if he had a track record of being a top tight end in the league. Unfortunately, he has no such history. Last season he had a 17.2% target share, which was good enough to be the 7th highest for a tight end, yet he finished outside the top 12 fantasy tight ends with the opportunity he was given. He had the 7th highest tight end target share and only finished 12th in receptions (60) while also catching zero touchdowns. Kmet earned a TE7 target share yet finished TE27 in points per game. He’s never been a strong fantasy option, even when given the volume. I don’t expect that to suddenly change this week in a tough divisional matchup against a defense that only allowed four receptions for 19 yards to opposing tight ends in week one.
Hopefully Justin Fields will complete more than eight pass attempts this week but I'm not interested in starting a tight end whose ceiling is 10-15% target share on a lousy offense against a defense like the Packers. The weather was no help last week and should be better in Week 2 but I would like to see Kmet and this Bears offense perform well before I can confidently plug him into my lineup this season. I would pivot to other tight end options like Hunter Henry, Albert Okwuegbunam, David Njoku, or Evan Engram before starting Kmet, as they offer the higher upside matchups.
- Boyd Armstrong
QB: Jameis Winston (NO)
The week we have finally been waiting for: Jameis Winston revenge week. In Week 8 of 2021, Winston finally got a shot to play against his old team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He started the game off hot, passing 6/10 for 60 yards and a TD alongside rushing 4 times for 40 yards. Unfortunately for Winston, he suffered a season-ending torn ACL with damage to the MCL as well. Flashforward to 2022 and he is back coming off of a 21.6 point, QB7 overall performance against the Atlanta Falcons. Things seem to be looking up for Winston and the Saints heading into Week 2 right?
Wrong. In Week 2, the Saints will be facing off against the stingy Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those same Buccaneers who were 7th in sacks, 8th in interceptions, and tied for 13th in TD’s allowed to the QB position in 2021. Not only were they a dominant defense in 2021 but they kicked off 2022 as the only defense in the NFL not to allow a touchdown in their season opener. They punished Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense by forcing Dak to throw 14/29 for 134 yards, 1 interception, and 0 TDs alongside 2 sacks. This led to 5.5 fantasy points and a QB31 performance. In fact, the Cowboys were the only team to not score a TD in week 1. While it was impressive that Winston led the Saints to a come-from-behind win against the Falcons while amassing 21.6 fantasy points, the fact they were ever trailing behind that team in the first place is enough for me to question Winston heading into Week 2. This defense has shown it is stringent, unrelenting, and will certainly not give Winston the opportunities that the horrific Falcons defense did just a week ago. Jameis Winston should either be on benches or on waivers for Week 2.
- Nick Beaulieu
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.