The first Sunday of the NFL season was as joyous as it was frustrating. Like we all expected, the Steelers beat the Bengals, Kyle Pitts had 19 yards, and no one in the NFC South won a game despite two teams playing each other. Let’s dive into the key takeaways from Week 1:
Steelers @ Bengals
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The Steelers Haven’t Changed
Despite an absurd and thrilling overtime win, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still mediocre on offense. Only rookie George Pickens had an aDOT over 10 yards–Diontae Johnson’s aDOT of 9.6 is only slightly higher than his 2021 finish of 8.5. Mitch Trubisky threw 38 times but only managed 194 yards and a single TD. After turning 3 turnovers into 17 points in the first half, the team only managed 3 total points in the entire second half, where they forced another two turnovers. The team is playing their same, boring and safe football. A potential pectoral injury to DPOY T.J. Watt will be an even bigger blow to the defense. The Bengals had a nightmare start to the game and still found themselves in prime position to seal the game multiple times. Pittsburgh did this to the Bills in week 1 last year and the difference in play for those two teams was like night and day by the end of the season.
Saints @ Falcons
Kyle Pitts Will Be Fine
The former Florida Gator was billed as the next big thing at the TE position but only mustered 2 receptions for 19 yards in a heartbreaking loss to the division rival New Orleans Saints. There’s no need to panic, however, as Pitts was 2nd on the team in routes run and tied for the most targets on the team with 7. The high usage will continue and the points will come.
49ers @ Bears
This Game Needs a Redo
San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance got his first career start in the worst circumstances. With a monsoon pouring over Chicago’s Soldier Field, each team finished the game with 37 rushing attempts and both sophomore QBs hit double digit carries. Jauan Jennings and Dante Pettis were the respective team leaders in receiving yards while top WRs Deebo Samuel and Darnell Mooney barely contributed through the air. Given the weather conditions and heavy run games, it’s hard to trust anything we saw outside of the fact that Trey Lance has a solid rushing floor. Bears backup RB Khalil Herbert also looks like he can have standalone value as he got every team carry inside the 10 yard line.
Eagles @ Lions
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The Eagles are NFC East Frontrunners
Don’t let the final score fool you, the Eagles controlled this game from start to finish. Jalen Hurts force-fed his shiny new toy in A.J. Brown, and posted a respectable passing line. In the run game, the Eagles shined like they did last year. Four separate players ran for a TD, and both Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders had 90+ rushing yards. Former Giants and Panthers CB James Bradberry took a Jared Goff interception to the house in his first game with Philly. While D’Andre Swift went wild on the ground, this performance and the circumstances around their divisional opponents is putting the Eagles in the driver's seat to win this division.
D’Andre Swift Should Get Every Carry
Nobody can stop D’Andre Swift, and this game proves he deserves every single carry on the team. 144 yards on the ground, including a 50-yarder, in a game where the team was constantly trailing is reminiscent of what Saquon Barkley did against the Tennessee Titans on the same day. For a player being drafted in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts, he’s sure off to an incredible start. The talent was always there and it was just a matter of time before he fully breaks out. Teammate Jamaal Williams vultured two rushing TDs but otherwise was useless on the ground. Hopefully this time the coaching staff realizes that their best player can help them win games. He’s the PPR RB3 and only had 3 receptions and could have added two more TDs. There is no ceiling. Swift is on a rocketship heading for another galaxy.
Ravens @ Jets
The Jets Desperately Need Zach Wilson
Joe Flacco just isn’t the answer. When you look at individual target numbers and some totals, it seems like a solid performance for a team that was expected to lose this badly. The targets, however, just don’t match up with the productivity, and Flacco threw the ball a whopping 59 times. Breece Hall received 10 targets but this game is not an indication of floor, this game is an indication of the ceiling for passing volume in this offense. The floor, on the other hand, is disgustingly low and Zach Wilson can get these players closer to their potential. 5 receptions for 49 yards just won’t cut it for where you drafted Elijah Moore.
Jaguars @ Commanders
Antonio Gibson Should Have Been Drafted Higher
After a tragic situation that involved Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. being shot multiple times, the fantasy world debated on the morals of discussing Antonio Gibson’s future for fantasy football. While obviously a sad story with a hopefully bright ending, it seems as if Robinson will be fully recovered soon, it is our job to report on how players will do because of circumstances, and in this case Gibson had a path to more usage. Despite this, his ADP actually dropped. Per Sleeper’s August 24th ADP, Gibson was being drafted as the RB22 and 50th overall in PPR redraft leagues. The Robinson news was reported on August 28th. They then released another ADP update on August 31st which showed Gibson being drafted as the RB23 and 53rd overall in redraft. Gibson went off in week 1, and while his rushing numbers weren’t special, he was second on the team in targets with 8 and caught 7 of them for 72 yards. Gibson will continue to be a dual threat RB whose ADP should have adjusted significantly more before the season started.
Colts @ Texans
Dameon Pierce Will Continue to Struggle
Despite the Colts’ slow start and positive game-script for most of the game, hype-train rookie Dameon Pierce was quiet. He was out-rushed and out-targeted by Rex Burkhead, 14-11 and 8-1, respectively. I won’t call him a bust for a bad week but Burkhead is going to continue to be a nuisance and we can’t trust Pierce will get more passing game usage. He then becomes a glorified Khalil Herbert, who drafted about 7 rounds later. This is a bad team that still has competition. Even in amazing circumstances, he’s going to be hard pressed to produce enough to justify his ADP.
Giants @ Titans
The Giants Pass Defense is Toast
This should have been a loss for the G-Men. Rookie WR Treylon Burks caught 3 of his 5 targets for 55 yards with an aDOT of 19.8, 4th highest in the league. Ryan Tannehill shredded the team through the air and finished with the 4th highest EPA/play amongst QBs this week. 13 of Tannehill’s 20 completions were for a first down. This was a poor showing against the pass considering that AJ Brown is out of town and Derrick Henry was contained. Every receiving group should get a bump against them.
Saquon is a top-3 RB
Saquon Barkley finished as the RB1 this week and led the league in rushing yards. Any concerns about him should be over. If you’re still worried about injury, anyone can get hurt. Barkley was a steal in the 2nd round just like D’Andre Swift. He’s one of the most talented RBs in the league and will have even better weeks than this and could easily finish as the team’s leader in targets. Lock him in as a high-end RB1 each and every week.
Packers @ Vikings
We Can’t Trust Packers WRs
Aaron Rodgers can keep games competitive but it starts to become difficult when you have no WRs. Rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson were serviceable but Watson did drop a wide-open would-be 80-yard TD. It was really the RBs who shined. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon led the team in targets, and both will be startable in the forthcoming weeks. Allen Lazard was expected to be the team’s WR1 this year but he missed the first game and we just don’t know how he will do as the rookies continue to develop chemistry with Rodgers. For now, the RBs are the only players I’m starting from this team. In deeper leagues, it’s ok to take a shot on one of the WRs but with no real information on where the targets will go with Lazard back, some limited upside isn’t worth the risk.
Chiefs @ Cardinals
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Mahomes Doesn’t Need Hill
It’s hard to imagine a better way to open up the season as a QB. Patrick Mahomes and company steamrolled the Arizona Cardinals, racking up 360 passing yards and 5 TDs. Mahomes’ 71.1% success rate while passing demolishes 2nd place Josh Allen’s 59.5%. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and any other three named players with a hyphen will succeed in this offense. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he doesn’t need Tyreek Hill to continue his dominant reign.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is Going to Feast
Even though Mahomes can–and will–make anyone look like a stud, JuJu Smith-Schuster is the only receiver you should be rostering right now. Travis Kelce remains the top TE in the league and led the team in targets with 9. Just behind him was JuJu, who had 8 and ran over 78% of team routes despite a healthy lead for most of the game. In situations where the team needs to throw even more, Kelce and JuJu will only be better.
Raiders @ Chargers
Keenan Allen left the game but Mike Williams was the WR that Disappeared
The Chargers and Raiders had a thrilling battle in Week 1 but it was the Chargers who came away victorious. While Davante Adams and Darren Waller received almost every target from Derek Carr, Justin Herbert spread the ball around after peppering Keenan Allen before Allen left with a hamstring injury. Expect Allen to miss at least one game with a TNF game upcoming for the Chargers. Mike Williams, on the other hand, is who we thought he is. The boom-bust maestro will remain a WR2 with a sky-high ceiling and magma-level floor. Josh Palmer is an interesting flex play with Allen out.
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
Rachaad White is a Handcuff For Now
One of the best RB prospects in this rookie class, Rachaad White was expected to carve out a role for himself as a receiving back. It’s still too early to tell how he will be used going forward, but he only had 8 touches in the win against the Cowboys on Sunday. He did tie Leonard Fournette with 2 targets, but ran only 7 routes total. He’ll be one of the best handcuffs in the league and is still worth rostering but has no flex consideration until usage increases. With an injured receiver group, that could happen sooner rather than later.
Dallas’ Season is Over
The Dallas Cowboys are expecting to miss their franchise QB Dak Prescott for nearly two months following surgery on his thumb. Cooper Rush is expected to lead the team while Prescott is out and gets to face the Bengals, Rams, and Eagles in some of their next few games. Even with winnable divisional games, a home game against the lowly Chicago Bears, and a middling schedule following Dak’s return, it would be difficult for them to capitalize after an unexpectedly poor start. Their offense looked awful even with Dak healthy to start the game. Bet on the Eagles as NFC East division winners while you still can.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.