Welcome to the Clay’s Corner! Each week I’ll identify DFS plays/fades and stacks to try to help you “bink” that GPP or smash in cash games! Let the #printfest begin!
Week 1 Draftkings
Games to target:
1. KC @ ARI - 53.5 O/U
Implied totals: KC 29.5; ARI 24
2. LVR @ LAC - 52 O/U
Implied totals: LVR 24.25; LAC 27.75
3. PHI @ DET - 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: PHI 26.25; DET 22.25
Top Cash Plays:
Quarter Back
The pricing is quite generous for Week 1, no need to be a cheap skate. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray are all great options in the 7k range on DraftKings. If you do want to save a little extra money, Jalen Hurts at $6,800 is very palatable.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor ($9,100)
He’s expensive but torched the Texans for 288 rushing yards and 4 TDs in two games last year. The Texans have improved some on defense but not enough to slow down JT.
Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are also great cash plays if you want to save cash.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown ($6,400)
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown hasn’t had the best offseason, from a hamstring injury to a reckless driving charge, he has found himself in a whirlwind. However, he still gets the opportunity to feast in a high-scoring affair with Kansas City while DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore watch from home and Zach Ertz remains doubtful. With no one to impede his target share, I expect Hollywood to have a huge game.
If you’re looking for a cheaper option, Juju Smith-Schuster, starting slot WR for the Chiefs, can feast in a game with an implied team total of 28.25 points.
Tight End
Mark Andrews ($6,800)
This one is pretty easy. No more Hollywood Brown in Baltimore should pave the way for Andrews to eat against the Jets. New York ranked as the 10th best matchup for TEs according to Broto’s Exclusive True Matchup Rank.
If you need to save some dough, Dallas Goedert at $4,500 should do the trick. Sure, AJ Brown is the shiny new toy in Philly, but Jalen Hurts and Goedert already have a strong connection. It also helps that the Lions were the 9th best matchup for TEs last season.
D/ST
New Orleans Saints ($3,700)
I don’t usually like to use road team defenses but an improved Saints defense gets to feast against QB Marcus Mariota and the Falcons. Sign me up. Atlanta gave up the third highest pressure rate last season and there’s not much evidence to suggest that will change.
The Miami Dolphins ($2,600) are also a good play at home against the Patriots. The Dolphins had the third highest pressure rate last season and they’re coming for the Mac Jones in Week 1. My only concern with this play is a Patriots defensive or special teams score.
Favorite stacks:
1. Kyler Murray + Hollywood Brown
2. Pat Mahomes + Juju Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdez-Scantling + Travis Kelce with a Hollywood Brown bring back.
3. Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. The Raiders also offer nice bring back options in Darren Waller or Davante Adams.
4. Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown. D’Andre Swift or Amon-Ra St. Brown offer nice bring backs on the Detroit side.
GPP Plays:
1. RB James Conner ($7,000)
The Chiefs gave up the 12th most rushing yards last season and were ranked the 13th best matchup for RBs per True Matchup Rank by Broto. Conner also gives you significant leverage against Kyler Murray and Hollywood Brown as they should be popular picks.
2. RB Joe Mixon ($7,100)
The Steelers gave up the most rushing yards last season with a whopping 2,483. Last season, Mixon crushed the Steelers in his only game against them for 165 yards on 28 carries and 2 TDs. Mixon also gives you nice leverage on Chase and Burrow stacks.
3. WR Tee Higgins ($6,100)
Again, we need to go against consensus and I don’t believe many people will want to play Bengals, let alone Tee Higgins, against the Steelers in a 44.5-point over/under. Higgins, however, did torch this Steelers defense for 114 yards on 6 receptions and a touchdown last year.
4. WR Adam Thielen ($5,400)
We all love Justin Jefferson, no doubt about that, but it’s Adam Thielen who loves scoring touchdowns against the Packers. In his career, Thielen has averaged 4.9 receptions for 65.7 yards and nearly half a TD per game against Green Bay. It’s ok to stay hooked on a Thielen.
5. TE Mo Alie-Cox ($3,400)
“MAC” has the grip on the starting job in Indianapolis and, theoretically, if Jonathan Taylor doesn’t get 93 red zone opportunities again like last year, Cox could see more work in the end zone. Furthermore, @dwainmcfarland noted that MAC ran a route on 75% of Matt Ryan’s drop backs during the preseason. He has huge upside.
6. TE Gerald Everett ($3,800)
The Charger’s offense will be some of the most popular plays, including Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. There should be plenty of opportunities in this offense for Everett to catch a TD or two as a contrarian start. Be warned, this play isn’t for the weary. It’ll be TD or bust.
7. TE Isaiah Likely ($2,500)
The ultimate punt play. Likely popped in preseason and could get you a score. Again, per True Matchup Rank, the Jets ere the 10th best matchup for TEs.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
1. Marques Valdez-Scantling ($4,700)
With an implied team total of 28.25 points, there’s plenty of room for MVS to pop off for a deep TD from Mahomes. Arizona’s defense is a push-over with more holes than Swiss
cheese. Expect a big day from MVS.
Final thoughts:
1. Have a list of back-ups or “late-swaps” that you can use for the 4:00 games. If your 1:00pm plays flop, having a group of players to swap in the later games that can help you cash vs. bottoming out in GPPs can help you make some money back.
Have a great week of DFS!
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By Clayton Jones
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.