Welcome to The BRoto "Everything You Need To Know About" series. Throughout the offseason, we will deep-dive into players for the 2022 NFL season and examine the good, the bad, and everything in between.
SUBJECT: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco Chronicle
THE GOOD:
If you are looking at CeeDee Lamb’s 2021 season, it is easy to mark it as a relative failure. Coming off an impressive rookie season the fantasy community saw a huge blowup year coming for Lamb in the high-powered Dallas Cowboys offense, drafting him as the 36th overall player and the 12th WR off the board. Unfortunately, those lofty expectations did not come to pass, with Lamb finishing as the WR20 overall and WR29 in FPPG. But if you zoom out and remove the artificial lofty expectations that were put on him, you see a 2022 season line of 79 catches for 1102 yards and 6 TDs, and it is clear that Lamb had his breakout season.
Since 2010, 437 second-year WRs have caught at least one ball in the NFL. Lamb is one of only 12 players to reach or exceed the catch, yards and TD stat threshold that he totaled in his sophomore season. This 12 player list includes Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson and Julio Jones. Even the perceived “busts” on the list, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon, Juju Smith-Schuster and Victor Cruz, all flashed the greatness that could have been yearly fantasy dominance if injuries and off-the-field issues didn’t curb their progress.
Lamb did all of this while being used as the third or fourth option in his own offense on several occasions, in a role that has been stifling his production. With WR Amari Cooper and WR Michael Gallup (when healthy at least) on the outside, Lamb lined up in the slot on 85% of his routes in 2021, following a rookie season where he lined up there 90% of the time. The nature of this role caused Lamb to have an aDOT (average depth of target) of 10.28, 59th in the the NFL. Furthermore, Lamb saw just 18.5% of his teams targets and his 120 total targets were just 26th in the NFL.
With Cooper moving on in a trade to the Browns, Lamb projects to move to the outside more often where his skillset and breakaway speed can be showcased. Despite his low aDOT, Lamb connected with QB Dak Prescott on 21 big plays, the 6th most of any WR in the NFL, flashing the skillset necessary to command a good percentage of the 104 targets Cooper left behind. The role also bodes well for his chance at touchdowns. Last season, Cooper was 14th in the NFL with 19 opportunities in the Red Zone while Lamb saw just 13 opportunities in the Red Zone, 38th in the league.
Going into the season, Lamb has a chance to take over the alpha WR role for the first time in his career. With Gallup still recovering from an ACL injury and unproven options on the opposite side of him in rookie Jalen Tolbert and newly signed WR James Washington, Lamb has a chance to explode as soon as the season begins. His opportunity to improve and his position as a young stud on a prolific offense makes me love the prospect of drafting Lamb this season.
THE BAD:
Usually, if a player is attached to one of the most prolific passers in the NFL, it turns out to be a good thing for his value. That’s not the case for Lamb, however, because Prescott has been one of the more ‘spread-the-ball-around’ type of QBs. Lamb led the Cowboys in target percentage in 2022, thanks in part to injuries to RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Amari Cooper, with a measly 18.5% of targets. The reason for the low percentage was Prescott’s propensity to spread the proverbial football love around. Lamb was one of three different Cowboys to receive 100 targets on the season (TE Dalton Schultz and Cooper), and one of seven to receive at least 45 targets. The last player to get more than the 120 targets that Lamb received from Prescott last season, was WR Dez Bryant in 2017. The Cowboys also added former Steelers deep threat WR James Washington and spent a third round draft pick on WR Jalen Tolbert to bolster their wide receiver room, two moves that could pull some targets away from Lamb, but really should not be a threat to his production.
SUPPORTING CAST:
As mentioned above, Amari Cooper is gone, leaving the alpha WR role for Lamb to take over, but that does not necessarily mean that he is going to be the alpha of the offense. The biggest competition for touches may very well come from former All-Pro RB Ezekiel Elliot, who struggled after getting injured last season, but reportedly is fully healthy once again. Although it was widely acknowledged that Zeke had been playing hurt, some will contest that his fall-off is more a product of his age and career usage, with nearly 2000 touches and 10,000 yards from scrimmage heading into his age 27 season. If Zeke does fall off, the Cowboys may be forced to air the ball out more often, making the sky the limit for Lamb in terms of targets. On the other hand, if Elliot does return to form, a more balanced offense may lead to better quality opportunities for Lamb, with a higher True Target Value. Tony Pollard is also certain to mix in on the offense, but the Cowboys have made it clear that Zeke is their lead back, and it is unlikely Tony Pollard has a highly impactful role for as long as Zeke is healthy.
Lamb’s biggest competition for targets will likely be TE Dalton Schultz, the breakout TE who had 104 targets (6th among TEs), 78 rec (3rd), 808 yards (6th) and 8 TDs (5th) in 2021. He finished as the TE3 in PPR scoring and was eighth in True Target Value.
The projected starter opposite Lamb, Michael Gallup, is projected to possibly miss at least 2-3 weeks of the regular season as he recovers from a torn ACL he suffered last season. Beginning the season on the PUP list is also not out of the question, meaning he would be out the first six weeks of the season.
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK:
Kellen Moore returns as OC for the third season overall and second under HC Mike McCarthy, who could be on the hot seat if the Cowboys do not compete for a championship. Dak also returns at QB, one of the most prolific, albeit streaky, passers in the NFL.
Prescott was top-10 in almost every passing category in 2021 and there is no reason to believe that the Cowboys offense won’t once again run through his right arm. Even though Dak loves to spread the ball, with Cooper gone, Gallup injured, and Zeke possibly slowing down, there is a chance that Lamb sees the type of volume not usually encountered in a Cowboys offense.
ADP REVIEW:
With an opportunity to finally step into the alpha WR role for the first time, the sky's the limit for Lamb, who has a realistic shot of finishing as the WR1 overall in 2022 if all goes well. At a current ADP of WR8, CeeDee Lamb is a great upside pick.
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By Tim Petropoulos
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.