It was the summer of 2014, and I was beginning my metamorphosis from a predominantly redraft-minded fantasy football player into a budding dynasty manager. Innumerable hours were spent scrupulously consuming various new philosophies, strategies, and theories that coincided with the infinite nuances of managing a dynasty team. Then, one fateful eve, I came across a startup draft strategy that changed my perspective on team-building and player values entirely.
The Productive Struggle strategy was originated by Ryan McDowell and contained what was, for me, a game-changing concept: “Give up on year one before it begins.” A tough pill to swallow for many. Nobody wants to play to lose. However, the Productive Struggle strategy is not a commitment to failure, moreover, it is a willingness and patience to wait for sustained success.
Too often, first-time dynasty managers attempt to win their league in a single draft, bringing redraft fantasy methods into play and capping the lifetime value of their roster. Heavily investing in proven veteran producers is an obvious recipe for immediate production. Often overlooked by novices is the fact that in a dynasty league, those veterans have less insulated value due to their age and shortened window of potential production. Sure, you can win in year one, but years two, three, and beyond don't appear as bright.
THE ORIGINAL PREMISE
McDowell proposed that managers “punt” year one by trading back for future assets while consistently selecting young wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks with insulated value and proven production, avoiding running backs altogether. The theory is that managers can sustain a much longer window of success by attaining low-risk assets assured of accruing value. Inevitably this would extend your rosters' capacity to retain production from year to year with minimal volatility.
An example of this in a modern 2022 startup draft would be selecting a player like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or Kyle Pitts with your first overall pick and attempting to trade your second pick for a future 2023 first-round rookie pick and a later selection in the startup. Managers can lock in a top-three positional asset while avoiding the early running back tier and adding to their future arsenal of draft picks.
Startup Pick - 1.06 = Ja’Marr Chase
Trade - Startup Pick 2.06
Receive - 2023 First Round Rookie Pick & Startup Pick 3.07
Part of the reasoning behind this strategy is due to the career longevity of NFL players per the position they play. According to PFF, over the last ten seasons, 67% of running backs with a top-12 positional finish were 26 years old or younger. Only 9% of running backs have finished in the RB1 tier at the age of 27. Wide receivers, on the other hand, have a much longer career arc of production, with 57% of top-12 finishes over the last ten seasons being attributed to players between the ages of 25-28.
An underlying facet of the Productive Struggle is a sense of self-controlled fate. Managers ensure that the picks attached to their franchise are top-tier by not attempting to win year one. Having a young, producing roster full of receivers on the precipice of career peaks and the 1.01 rookie draft pick is a huge advantage. This puts managers in a powerful position to compete for a championship in year two while maintaining top negotiating value on all their assets during the first year.
THEN & NOW
Unfortunately, in the year 2022, that strategy has become increasingly challenging to accomplish. We, as dynasty managers, are at a strange apex. The 2023 NFL Draft class is filled with franchise-altering prospects on the offensive side of the football. The value of 2023 rookie picks has risen to an unprecedented point compared to previous draft classes.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, we have an increasing amount of elite-fantasy producers edging towards the dreaded drop-off that is known in many circles as “the age cliff.” The dynasty market is over-adjusting by preemptively decreasing the presumed trade value of nearly every veteran, regardless of their resume or 2022 trajectory.
The strength of the 2023 draft makes the race for last place more appealing than ever but also harder to achieve while maintaining roster value. Even the newest managers are well aware of the incoming talent. The shared awareness restricts the recourse to trade back in earlier rounds for prospective assets. Meanwhile, the breakout of several young receivers and quarterbacks has signified a changing of the guard that is palpable in the NFL, prompting managers in startups to avoid established veterans and focus on the youth movement naturally.
It is virtually impossible to receive a proper market return when trading back during a startup draft this season. Managers should accept what is equal to three first-round rookie picks of value for their first overall pick in a startup draft. With all 12 managers bogarting 2023 picks for a chance at a top prospect, we are forced to pivot and modify our strategy.
Now we are presented with several blockades that complicate the once tried and true philosophies of old. With that said, it’s time to adapt. In this article, we will utilize our knowledge of the old Productive Struggle startup strategy and implement our current understanding of the 2022 dynasty market to create a new system. The Modern Productive Struggle will provide managers with an alternative method to use during startup drafts while yielding the same results as the original; Sustained future dominance. We will highlight a few top targets at the critical points of the startup draft that will offer the best opportunity for perfect execution.
MODERN PRODUCTIVE STRUGGLE
Remember, we aren’t trying to tank for the sake of tanking. We are trying to build a true “Dynasty” capable of winning multiple championships in an elongated window. We will maintain the original strategy of avoiding the running back position with the caveat of attacking high upside backups in the later rounds. Our primary focus in the opening rounds of the startup draft should be to secure an elite, young quarterback or wide receiver with ensured job security. We will be looking through the lens of a superflex startup draft.
Top First Round Targets:
Josh Allen QB - Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes QB - Kansas City Chiefs
Justin Herbert QB - Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Jefferson WR - Minnesota Vikings
Ja’Marr Chase WR - Cincinnati Bengals
Kyle Pitts TE - Atlanta Falcons
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The first round is the easiest place to attempt a trade back for future assets. Every transaction needs to be weighed and measured to maintain equal value. If you choose to execute a trade from your first selection, be sure to acquire multiple future first-round rookie picks, and top-25 startup picks in return. As mentioned above, the heightened value of the 2023 class makes the previous proposal difficult. Managers should look to trade as often as possible when an unwanted tier bottlenecks, i.e. several veterans or running backs falling below ADP, allowing the acquisition of multiple picks in the following tier from managers attempting to build a win-now roster.
Top Round 2-5 Targets:
CeeDee Lamb WR - Dallas Cowboys
A.J Brown WR - Philadelphia Eagles
Deebo Samuel WR - San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance QB - San Francisco 49ers
Jaylen Waddle WR - Miami Dolphins
DK Metcalf WR - Seattle Seahawks
Trevor Lawrence QB - Jacksonville Jaguars
Justin Fields QB - Chicago Bears
Drake London WR - Atlanta Falcons
Diontae Johnson WR - Pittsburgh Steelers
If you notice other managers in your startup drafts striving to implement a similar strategy, do not panic to the point of pivoting off of your intended goal. An easy way to adjust during the draft is by monitoring each team's build and the players remaining on the board. When the market zigs, you should zag. If the draft room attempts to spark a run on running backs, continue to draft wide receivers. If the tight end market dries up, add another young quarterback. You will be able to gauge which positions are being faded and how managers are directing their team builds by meticulously watching your draft. Focus on recruiting the best and most profitable player rather than filling positional needs. Allow other managers to reach on players while you stack ever-increasing value.
Top Mid-Round Targets:
Tua Tagovailoa QB - Miami Dolphins
T.J. Hockenson TE - Detroit Lions
Mac Jones QB - New England Patriots
Garrett Wilson WR - New York Jets
Treylon Burks WR - Tennessee Titans
Zach Wilson QB - New York Jets
Rashod Bateman WR - Baltimore Ravens
DeVonta Smith WR - Philadelphia Eagles
Cole Kmet TE - Chicago Bears
Elijah Moore WR - New York Jets
Jameson Williams WR - Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR - Detroit Lions
Darnell Mooney WR - Chicago Bears
One of the essential aspects of the Modern Productive Struggle is the willingness to draft established veterans with solid 2022 projections. After the top dynasty assets are off the board, managers should not hesitate to draft undervalued veterans as bargaining chips. These in-season producers can be utilized as trade bait for desperate managers attempting to push into the playoffs, making them more likely to part ways with future draft picks. Our goal is ultimately to acquire 2023 1.01, meaning in-season transactions will need to be made promptly with rigorous intent to increase that likelihood. We do not want to get stuck with a declining asset that could derail our trajectory.
Top Mid-Round Veteran Targets:
Terry McLaurin WR - Washington Commanders
Chris Godwin WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DeAndre Hopkins WR - Arizona Cardinals
Keenan Allen WR - Los Angeles Chargers
Marquise Brown WR - Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Goedert TE - Philadelphia Eagles
Amari Cooper WR - Cleveland Browns
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR - Kansas City Chiefs
Mike Williams WR - Los Angeles Chargers
Brandin Cooks WR - Houston Texans
Michael Thomas WR - New Orleans Saints
As always, rookies will be a focal point of every dynasty draft. The top rookie prospects of any draft class will fly off the board early in a startup. Fortunately, there are always undervalued first-year players that can greatly increase the overall quality of your roster. To avoid paying a premium against other managers in the startup draft, attempt to target some under-the-radar rookies at a discount.
Top Mid-Round Rookie Targets
Trey McBride TE - Arizona Cardinals
David Bell WR - Cleveland Browns
Jahan Dotson WR - Washington Commanders
George Pickens WR - Pittsburgh Steelers
Jalen Tolbert WR - Dallas Cowboys
Due to the high volatility of the running backs, we will continue to carry over the original process of avoiding the top-tier players at the position. However, during the final 5-7 rounds of the draft, we will look to stash multiple high-upside handcuffs below the presumed age cliff. These particular running backs will keep your weekly point total low enough to tank while maintaining a solid overall roster value progressively.
Top Late-Round RB Targets
Kenneth Gainwell RB - Philadelphia Eagles
Khalil Herbert RB - Chicago Bears
Nyheim Hines RB - Indianapolis Colts
Keaontay Ingram RB - Arizona Cardinals
Entering your 2022 season with only two to three running backs on your roster, none of which hold RB1 value is an intimidating process to take on. However, the payoff at the end of the dark rainbow is a pot of dynasty gold.
Top Projected 2023 Players:
Bijan Robinson RB - Texas
C.J. Stroud QB - Ohio State
Bryce Young QB - Alabama
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR - Ohio State
Kayshon Boutte WR - LSU
Jahmyr Gibbs RB - Alabama
Zachary Evans RB - Ole Miss
Tank Bigsby RB - Auburn
Jordan Addison WR - USC
Quentin Johnson WR - TCU
Sean Tucker RB - Syracuse
Every single one of the prospects above harnesses franchise-altering potential and value. The more opportunities you give yourself to secure multiple prospects in the 2023 class, the better. If the cost is being the last-placed team in 2022, so be it.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Please follow me on LinkTree to stay updated on all of my content: @PsychWardFF. You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.