Sports news and social media outlets are desperate to fill the dead-air void left behind by the lack of football played in the summer months, especially during Minicamp and OTAs. This constant need to churn out the next great headline often causes minor offseason stories to be blown out of proportion.
As a fantasy football manager closely following the ebbs and flows of team news, exaggerated beat reports can become quite frustrating when attempting to find the truth amidst the flood of verbose propaganda.
In this Noteworthy or Noise? series, we will be highlighting the top Minicamp and OTA headlines from every NFL team team, intending to dispel the noise while giving attention to noteworthy news.
First up, the NFC South:
— Full NFC Series: NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
— Full AFC Series: AFC East | NFC North | NFC South | AFC West
ATLANTA FALCONS
Headline: “Rookies Desmond Ridder and Tyler Allgeier expect to compete for the Falcons starting roles in Training Camp.”
USA Today
Noise: Headlines of this nature should come as no surprise and require no adjustment to the fantasy market. The Falcons are in a team rebuilding phase that expects to take several years. The organization sent long-time franchise QB Matt Ryan to the Colts and will begin the 2022 season with former Titans and Raiders QB Marcus Mariota or Ridder under center.
Ridder “competing” for a starting role by seeing first-team repetitions should not shock anyone. Ridder is the only viable quarterback on the roster outside of Mariota, who is signed to a minimal two-year contract with a potential out at the end of the 2022 season. It is feasible to assume that Ridder will get the opportunity to start during his rookie career. However, managers should remain patient when attempting to project their future value and production for dynasty leagues.
As a third-round draft pick, Ridder’s job security on the Falcons is futile. The team is predicted to bottom out again in 2022, ensuring a top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and the opportunity to select a true franchise quarterback.
The previous sentiments can be used to analyze rookie RB Tyler Allgeier as well. The Falcons are thin at every position, meaning rookies have an open avenue to playing time regardless of talent level.
Allgeier is a north-south bruiser with limited experience at the position as he transitioned back-and-forth between running back and linebacker throughout his tenure at BYU. He is raw as a pass-catcher, capping his fantasy upside in one of the league's worst offenses.
Looking through our dynasty lens, we can see that the best-case scenario for these late-round prospects is a rookie season rife with extreme outlier production. Unfortunately, neither player has a guaranteed future with the franchise, even if breakout seasons occur.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Headline: “Terrace Marshall’s stock is rising after a strong showing at OTAs.”
Noise: Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Last offseason, we were sold an identical false bill of goods with Panthers WR Terrace Marshall. Marshall, a rookie at the time, was celebrated as the next great Panthers wide receiver. His high acclaim rose into the preseason as the budding prospect dominated the team’s exhibition series. Unfortunately, the regular season would not be as promising.
Marshall was on the field for 48.2% of the Panthers' offensive snaps as a rookie, averaging 2.5 fantasy points per game. His 30 targets (6.9% Share) ranked 119th in the NFL.
At a certain point, managers need to throw out collegiate profiles and conclude that a player is unlikely to succeed. Please do not buy into any preseason hype surrounding Marshall after his monumental fall from grace in his rookie year.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Headline: “Saints running back Alvin Kamara is bracing for a minimum suspension of six games.”
USA Today
Noteworthy: Saints RB Alvin Kamara is facing a lengthy suspension stemming from an assault charge during 2021 Pro Bowl week in Las Vegas. The simple cause and effect of Kamara’s proposed suspension is a trickle-down of touches to the Saints' backup running back. Veteran RB Mark Ingram would likely assume the starting role but has slowed considerably and will be 33 before the season’s end. RB Tony Jones and RB Abram Smith are the unsuspecting candidates to see an increase in volume and value during Kamara’s absence. Jones profiles as the change-of-pace option, whereas Smith can assume the bruising role of the aging Ingram.
Although the allocation of touches is obvious enough to understand, Kamara’s future dynasty value has several layers. Kamara will be 27 by the time the 2022 season starts and is nearing the production drop-off that inevitably comes with running backs of his age. His suspension greatly minimizes the window managers will have to capitalize when looking for a value return via trade. On the flip side, managers looking to compete for a league title may be able to get a discount on Kamara. However, one should be cautious when investing. Kamara’s overall future value could flatline if his production does not match previous seasons.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Headline: “Rob Gronkowski's retirement opens up the door for Cade Otton to become the Bucs number one tight end.”
Noteworthy: I wrote about this possible outcome of scenarios in the Dynasty Penny Stocks article, suggesting managers get ahead of Cade Otton’s low rostership percentages. It seemed like a simple miscalculation of risk by the market. Should Rob Gronkowski retire, Otton’s value would see an inevitable increase. At the time of that article, Otton was rostered in 50.6% of dynasty leagues on the Sleeper platform. Those numbers have skyrocketed above 70% and will continue to climb until the start of the 2022 season.
Following the news, managers rushed to the waiver wire, hoping to land Tom Brady’s new target. If Otton is still available in your league, he is worth a speculative add. However, do not get careless with your FAAB or future draft capital on a player simply due to a presumed role. A small allocation of your free agent budget or a fourth-round rookie draft pick is the only worth Otton holds until he produces on the field. If you were savvy enough to add Otton before the news broke, continue to hold in hopes that Brady acts as a catalyst for the the rookie’s accelerated development.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.