Week 3 was a doozy! We hit 2 out of 5 for our traditional lines but one of them was a plus money ML, so hopefully unit management brought you out even or on top. We struggled a little bit in the Touchdown department as well, as the Lions gave all the rushing work to Jamaal Williams as soon as we moved off of him due to the Swift injury and also allowed ARSB’s streak to die, partly due to injury. It was a shame to see but Saquon found the end zone and our Jonathan Taylor fade was a success. As always, let’s take what we learned into the new week!
My favorite thing about betting is finding a new trend and capitalizing before it falls off due to regression. We finally have enough game data to begin to identify these trends and I have an interesting one to share before we dive in.
43-6 is the record for games in which the spread has not mattered for the underdog in the outcome. To elaborate, this means that out of the 49 games played so far this NFL season, 43 of them have resulted in the favorite covering, or the underdog winning the game outright. In other words, if you like the favorite, bet the points and if you like the underdog, take them to win on the moneyline. This is particularly valuable to consider when betting underdogs as there is a significant value boost from betting a team -110 on a +6.5 point spread, for example, when you could bet their ML at +235. This gives you an edge on your winnings over Vegas as well, rather than paying the rake on every play. It is also worth noting that 2 of the 6 losses in this model have come from the Detroit Lions, so it is wise to avoid them for the time being when applying this knowledge. We will keep an eye on this trend as the season goes along.
Week 4 note: there are a ton of very close spreads this week, so proceed with caution!
Week 4 Picks
Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are arguably the frontrunners to win the NFC at this point. The Jaguars are being overrated after beating up on a battered and beaten Chargers team. Traveling to the hostile territory that is Philadelphia, I see the Eagles having no issue dominating Jacksonville. Great teams cover.
Cowboys -3 vs Commanders (-110)
Despite the loss of Dak Prescott, Dallas has done a pretty good job of taking care of business. Defeating the defending AFC Champion Bengals and arch rival New York Giants in consecutive weeks, the Cowboys are riding high into their easiest matchup of the season. Washington has steadily shown their inadequacies, losing to Detroit and Philadelphia while barely pulling a win out from under Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. This is not a Washington team to be feared and Dallas will take care of business on Sunday.
Packers -9.5 vs Patriots (-105)
9.5 is a lot of points but Brian Hoyer is starting for New England. There should be no concern that Green Bay will be able to comfortably control this game at home. Look for New England to run the ball a lot and try to slow this game down, so the under may be in play as well (39.5). I like the Packers to win by 14 or more and might even consider an alternate spread for some plus value.
Rams ML @ 49ers (+100)
The Rams are coming off of a dominating win against Arizona and the 49ers are coming off an embarrassing loss to Denver. Denver has proven to be a weird matchup for everyone they meet but the 49ers have not shown nearly enough to be a favorite in this game, regardless of the location. Rams ML at even money is the correct play for value and I expect them to come away with the W on Monday Night.
TD Scorers
Chris Olave - NO (+185)
Michael Thomas is out this week and Olave has done a great job shouldering the WR production of this offense already. The value is really nice at +185 as he is the most likely Saint to see high value targets.
Pat Freiermuth - PIT (+230)
The Jets have given up 24, 27, and 30 points through three weeks. The Steelers should find the endzone several times and Pat seems to be a favorite target of Mitch Trubisky, having seen 21 targets through 3 weeks. The value at +230 is insane. This feels like a golden ticket!
Jalen Hurts - PHI (-110)
This did not hit last week but as I stated, I will run this play every week until Hurts shows a change in his play tendencies, or the books adjust his lines.
Lamar Jackson - BAL (+145)
With a rushing TD in two consecutive weeks and Lamar in MVP form, these odds are far too high. I may consider giving Jackson the Jalen Hurts treatment until proven otherwise.
That’s all folks! As always, bet responsibly and let's collect some coin!
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.