We’re approaching the key point in the NFL season where we are starting to know which teams are better than others while sportsbooks still play it safe with lines. This is the time to take advantage.
Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ Carolina Panthers O/U: 43.5
Themi’s Teaser: Cardinals +7.5
NBC Sports
The Carolina Panthers are frauds. They narrowly lost to Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones while beating an injured Jameis Winston. They’re 10th in defensive EPA/play allowed and 14th in defensive DVOA. They can have a good - or great - defense and still be bad because the offensive side of the ball is atrocious. Baker Mayfield ranks 29th amongst QBs in EPA/Play and has a CPOE (completion percentage over expected) of -14.8, 32nd in the league.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray isn’t having an especially amazing season, ranking 23rd in EPA/Play and 26th in CPOE but he’s getting the most out of what he has, both on the ground and through the air. It’s not easy to trust the Cardinals but having the better QB should make all the difference. Baker Mayfield has the lowest on-target percentage and the 3rd highest bad throw percentage in the league (pro-footballreference.com) and only half of WR D.J. Moore’s targets were deemed catchable according to PlayerProfiler. This is a putrid offense that is going to have to rely on RB Christian McCaffrey returning to form to have any chance of competing. He has looked good but he’s only averaging 20 touches and fewer than five targets per game. That’s laughable compared to his legendary 2019 season where he averaged 25 touches and nearly 9 targets per game. The Cardinals know who the focal point of the offense is and they will force Mayfield to throw. The Panthers have a path to victory via their defense but the Cardinals have the offensive firepower to continue to stay in the game. A victory by more than a TD for Carolina would be shocking.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U: 43
Themi’s Teaser: Titans +9.5
These are the two most confusing teams in the league. One week they suck, the next week they are good again.
The Colts offense is dead last in EPA/Play. Week 2’s 24-0 loss to the Jaguars inflates the number a bit over a three-game sample size but the Colts ranked 26th in offensive EPA/Play last week, even in a victory. WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce returned from injury and led the team in receiving and yet the Colts still could not find any sort of offense consistency.
The saving grace for the Colts is that they are a talented bunch and get to fire up RB Jonathon Taylor against a Titans defense that is 30th in rushing EPA allowed. Almost all of that can be attributed to Saquon Barkley’s 164-yard game in Week 1 but elite talent usually takes advantage of a juicy matchup and that should be the case for Taylor this week. Although the Titans were 16th against the run the past two weeks, they got shredded through the air. The Colts defense is 3rd against the run, which is bad news for Derrick Henry and his attempt to reclaim his rushing crown. Henry’s struggles used to spell doom for the Titans offense but with a ragtag group of receivers, the team has made the passing offense work. Rookie Treylon Burks and former Rams veteran Robert Woods lead the pack, while former Browns TE Austin Hooper has carved out a small role for himself. The Titans may not feature many exciting names but they are starting to win games. A slim Colts victory should be the most likely outcome. Both teams are still pretty mediocre and the low-point total makes a whopping 9.5-point handicap worth so much more.
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers O/U: 42.5
Themi’s Teaser: Rams +7.5
Sporting News
The 49ers are the best 1-2 team in the league. A series of unfortunate events have threatened their season but San Francisco can change their fate and take the division lead in this game. A loss in a monsoon to the lowly Bears was quickly followed by a thrashing of the Seahawks. The 49ers sadly lost QB Trey Lance early in that game but backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been with this team for a while and has led them to the NFC Championship game multiple times. Their season isn’t over just yet.
As Jimmy G gets back in the swing of things, the 49ers have leaned heavily on the run to the tune of a 61.2% run percentage, 2nd highest in the NFL and the highest of HC Kyle Shanahan’s career. The Rams, however, are the best team in the league against the run. The 49ers will have to test their offense to either beat the Rams at what they do best, or try their luck passing against Jalen Ramsey, who has the 4th highest PFF grade at the CB position, and company.
To make matters worse for the 49ers, 2021 First-Team All-Pro T Trent Williams will miss the game with an ankle injury. This could lead to TE George Kittle playing more as a blocker and less as a receiver in his second game back. His league-best blocking skills at the TE position will be used to help defend against a Rams pass-rush that blitzes QBs at the 9th highest rate in the league. Per ESPN’s Seth Walder, DT Aaron Donald is being double-teamed over 70% of the time but still winning at the highest rate in the league. The 49ers can’t protect Jimmy Garoppolo forever, and if they do, they are going to have to make George Kittle block. That leaves Deebo Samuel and fellow WR Brandon Aiyuk to carry this game through the air. One of them should explode but there is no way anyone can trust Jimmy G in this one. The Rams should win. The teaser is insurance.
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By Themi Michalakis