SLEEPERS
QB: Marcus Mariota (ATL)
Every year there is a late-round Konami code quarterback that propels their way up the ranks, evolving into a league-winning fantasy asset. As it turns out, Marcus Mariota was the answer to that code, flying under the radar while managers were fawning over the likes of Trey Lance and Justin Fields. The Falcons new starting quarterback averages 17.3 PPG (QB13) through the first three games of the 2022 season. He ranks fourth in quarterback carries (25) with 8.3 per game, while leading the NFL in red zone rushing attempts (8). Mariota has 92 rushing yards on the season, averaging 30.7 per contest, seventh among quarterbacks. He has sustained a solid floor that is upheld by consistent rushing production. The Falcons face off against the Browns in Week 4, a defense conceding 20.0 PPG to opposing quarterbacks. The Browns defensive unit has struggled explicitly with stemming the success of rushing quarterbacks, allowing 4.7 PPG of rushing production to the position. They have allowed 92.2% over the expected average of fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and 63.1% over average to wide receivers. This matchup of unsuspecting basement-dwellers has the formula necessary to set Mariota and company up for a big day on the fantasy scoreboards.
Matt Ward
TE: David Njoku (CLE)
David Njoku enters Week 4 fresh off the heels of a monstrous showing against the Steelers in Week 3. The uber-athletic Browns tight end caught nine of ten targets for 89 yards and one touchdown, finishing with 23.9 PPR points (TE2). Njoku ranks second on the team in target share (18.2%/TE7) behind only Amari Cooper while playing 91.2% of the offensive snaps (TE4). 37 of his offensive snaps have come from the slot this season, driving home the fact that Njoku is not only the Browns' starting tight end but number two wide receiver as well. The former first-round tight end draws a scintillating matchup against the swiss cheese secondary unit housed by the Falcons defense. The Falcons are giving up 12.3 PPG to tight ends (24th) and 38.7 PPG to wide receivers (29th). The Browns are 1.5-point favorites in a game with a surprising over/under total set at 47.5, reflecting both teams’ inability to stop offenses from scoring. Njoku should continue to see his fair share of targets as one of two reliable pass-catchers on the Browns' offense.
Matt Ward
WR: Elijah Moore (NYJ)
New York Jets
After only three weeks the fantasy football community seems ready to crown Garrett Wilson the King of New York. A different Jets Receiver will be looking to take over the throne in Week 4 though and that player is Elijah Moore. A late 2021 breakout had many fantasy managers expecting Moore to enter the 2022 season guns blazing and setting the football world on fire. Unfortunately for Moore and his believers, this has not been the case. While he has certainly disappointed to open the season, the game logs do not tell the whole story. Moore has been on the field more than any other Jets receiver by quite a wide margin thus far. He has been on the field for 90% of the snaps while Corey Davis has logged 78% of the snaps and Garrett Wilson 58% of the snaps. Being on the field as much as he has will eventually lead to increased opportunity on top of the already solid opportunity he has been receiving. Despite his struggles, Moore has still amassed an average of 7 targets and a healthy 97 air yards per game. It is only a matter of time until these looks turn into fantasy points.
If there is any week for Moore to turn things around it is this week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. The once-formidable Steel Curtain has been looking more like the Shower Curtain as of late. The Steelers have allowed one 100-yard receiver each week to open the season in Ja’Marr Chase, Nelson Agholor and Amari Cooper, respectively. Let’s face the facts - if Nelson Agholor can drop 100 yards on the Steelers then Elijah Moore should not have much of an issue finding space himself. On top of that, the Steelers are currently allowing 23.6% points over average, coming in as the 8th most favorable matchup in the NFL. The icing on the cake in this whole situation is that starting QB Zach Wilson is expected to return from injury. There is no telling which receiver Wilson will favor coming out of the gate but many expect that the familiarity with Moore will boost his floor from where it was with Flacco. With a solid matchup, an abundance of opportunity and a reunion with the quarterback who helped him break out less than a year ago, Elijah Moore should be primed for a big Week 4.
Nick Beaulieu
RB: Rashaad Penny (SEA)
Rashaad Penny has had a slow start to the year. Through the first three games he is the RB47 in points per game with an average of 5.5 PPG in half PPR. This type of start is not what Penny drafters had in mind when they were selecting him as a top 30 fantasy back. He seems to be in a funk compared to how he looked during his electric stretch of games to end the 2021 season. The best way to end a funk is by going against the juiciest defense possible and this weak, swiss cheese Detroit run defense is exactly what the doctor ordered.
The Lions have been the absolute best matchup for a running back in fantasy football this season. Each of the three starting RBs opposing the Lions to start the season ended as top 15 backs in their respective week. The Lions are allowing over 100+ yards per game on the ground and have given up 6 rushing touchdowns to opposing teams running backs (7 total if you include Jalen Hurts scoring on the ground in week one). This is an absolute gold mine of a defense for opposing starting running backs.
While the lows with a player like Penny can be very low, the highs are incredibly high, as we saw at the end of last season, and the stars seem to be aligning perfectly for a big Rashaad Penny game against this dreadful Detroit run defense. The last time Penny played the Detroit Lions was in week 17 of last year. In that game he ran for 190 yards on the ground and scored a touchdown, finishing as the overall RB1 on the week. I expect this to be a run-heavy game with Seattle pounding the ball on the ground a lot and for Rashaad Penny to have a big fantasy performance. We are rolling with Rashaad in week four.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
QB: Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Trevor Lawrence has looked every bit as comfortable and confident as a former first-overall generational quarterback talent should through the first three weeks of the 2022 season. Although the second-year sensation is living up to expectations, he has yet to face a challenge as strong as the Eagles defense. The Eagles have conceded a meager 11.0 PPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, equating to 49.1% below the expected average for the position. They have allowed 186.7 passing yards per game while effectively shutting down all areas with all-pro corner Darius Slay roaming the field. The Eagles front seven is equally as imposing as their secondary, ranking second on the season with 12 sacks through three contests. Lawrence will be continuously pressured and forced to make quick throws against one of the NFL’s best ball-hawking units. Expect the Jaguars franchise quarterback to take a small step down from his sophomore ascent with a low-scoring performance in Week 4.
Matt Ward
TE: Dallas Goedert (PHI)
The Jaguars defense is giving opposing offenses fits to begin the 2022 season. The addition of reigning tackle champ Foyesade Oluokun along with rookies Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd have flipped this defensive unit into an imposing force seemingly overnight. The Jaguars have conceded just 5.4 PPG to the tight end position, 42.5% below the expected average. Goedert’s career target totals are way down in comparison to years prior. The arrival of A.J Brown and the ascent of second-year wideout Devonta Smith has capped Goedert’s volume and receiving upside, with the Eagles' tight end averaging a 14.9% target share this season. Goedert is the fourth option in the pecking order behind Brown, Smith and Sanders for opportunities while facing one of the league’s toughest matchups for tight ends. Do not be surprised to see Goedert fall well below his projection totals in Week 4.
Matt Ward
WR: Allen Lazard (GB)
Allen Lazard is nothing more than an average football player. Lazard has been playing with Aaron Rodgers for 5 years now and is yet to amass more than 40 catches or 513 yards in a season. His only bright spot in recent years has been his ability to find the end zone. In 2021, Lazard caught 8 touchdowns on 40 receptions, good for an astounding 20% TD conversion rate. This is an absurd and unattainable touchdown rate. So far in 2022, Lazard already has 2 touchdowns on 6 receptions, coming in at a 33% TD conversion rate. This is once again vastly unattainable and it will change. Lazard has a mere 6 total receptions for 58 yards in two games on 9 targets in a virtually empty wide receiver room that consists of nothing but rookies and the ghost of Randall Cobb. If he cannot have huge target shares and massive games when his competition is minimal, then he never will.
This week, Lazard is slated to face off against the New England Patriots. The Patriots are currently allowing 35.9% points below average to the wide receiver position, making them the 2nd worst matchup in the entire NFL. If one were to take Lazard’s current points per game of 10.4 and decrease it by 35.9%, that would yield 6.7 points. Simply stated, managers do not want to see 6.7 points in their lineup from any of their players (even a kicker). Touchdowns are the only thing keeping Lazard anywhere close to fantasy relevant and it is not wise to rely on such an unsticky metric to get positive results. It would be wise, however, to pivot from Lazard in Week 4.
Nick Beaulieu
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has looked like a man on fire through these first three games, if and only if you look solely at his fantasy scores. Clyde has definitely surpassed fantasy manager expectations thus far but that fantasy success has been heavily reliant on scoring TDs which cannot be relied on from week to week.
CEH is currently averaging over 15 half ppr points per game while playing less than 45% of the offensive snaps in each game. He is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season with a 12 point game against the Colts last week. In that game, he looked horrible on the ground as he ran the ball 7 times for 0 rushing yards. Zero, zilch, not even a yard. Luckily for his fantasy managers though, his day was ultimately salvaged by a rushing touchdown and a rare 5 reception game (His first since his rookie season). Without that touchdown, he woud have only totalled 6 points, good for the RB36, just below JD McKissic. The floor for his fantasy value is made of glass and can be shattered easily. Things are going to come crashing down for Clyde and this week could be where he falls back down to Earth as he goes against Vita Vea and the powerful Buccaneers defense.
Tampa Bay has been a brutal matchup for opposing running backs as they have allowed the 2nd least points over average to opposing rushers with a -47% POA (per Broto True Matchup Rank). The Bucs have yet to allow even a single RB3 performance on the year. They held Ezekiel Elliott to RB48, Mark Ingram to RB47 and AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones were RB51 and 52, respectively, last week. Stay far away from CEH in Week 4.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.